Very good points, all. Important ones too.
So, here goes my annotated $0.02:
1. He can't win because dems won't vote for a bona fide military guy. Democrats weren't smart enough to elect him in 2004, and I don't think 2008 will be any different. Dear Dems, we have a genuine liberal southern general. Please elect him! I'm telling you now. It ain't happening.
I'm not too sure I'd use such a positive assertion that "dems won't vote for a bona fide military guy", period. I think it much rather depends on what people (i.e., Democrats) perceive as "a bona fide guy". In fact, I see
no electability issue whatsoever for the primaries if the proposition is "a bona fide
and competent guy (who happens to have had a career in the military)".
I'm a bit more troubled by your elevation of "Southern" combined with "liberal" as a no-no factor, though. Somehow, I recall a Southern guy -- if memory serves me well, from the same state as Wes Clark -- who didn't do too bad in the primaries, and even had some success the 1992 elections.
As to "genuine liberal", well... I go back to "perception", because whether I like it or not, that is a big part. His "flat" $50,000 federal income tax threshold plan, his pro-union stance, his pro-choice stance, on and on I could go; I don't think it's about anything
but perception, in fact. And since we're talking about 2008 and 2004, I believe that the "fear factor" in the 2004 contest of being painted as "liberal" by many candidates that was present right up to the grand finale ticket of Kerry/Edwards will have dissipated substantially in these next primaries and elections. Besides, I believe that Cheney and Bush will both be much less visible, to not ruin the GOP candidate(s) by association with the ever increasingly clear disaster area that is the Bush administration.
So, I think "liberal" won't be such a red button, either way: not as a defining trait of a Democratic candidate (I think it'll be "merely" a required qualification, not a discriminating factor) and not as an effective wedge from the GOP, because their chances will very likely depend on the degree of success as coming across as "reasonable" and "moderate" - which in effect will be a step to the
left. At least, that's how I see it at this point - while we haven't invaded Iran yet (!)
But most importantly, and unlike his starting situation in the by all means very, very short run in the 2004 campaign, Wes Clark has had ample opportunity to build up his credibility as a "genuine" Democrat over the past years, especially during the midterm elections last year. I've come across quite a lot of people here in Northwest NV who have come to "reconsider" their instinctive but understandable wariness borne from little exposure, after hearing / reading about and of course, seeing him campaign. I'll be the last to hold up this state as "representative" but I think it's important to keep in mind that this
is a battle state, where Democrats trend more toward Blue Dogs than Yellow Dogs.
In conclusion, I think Wes Clark has matured long enough to overcome the "scary, hardly-known ex-military guy" quite effectively.
2. He can't win because he has no experience in governing. Don't quote me the running a command is like running a city stuff. I wrote that talking point. It came from me. Clark's experience and knowledge is a 10 of 10 on foreign and military policy. His knowledge on domestic issues was a 2 of 10 in 2004. His experience was a 0. He's probably a 5-6 now for knowledge. He's still a 0 when it comes to experience. People want to know about bread and butter issues and I think Clark struggles here.
Harking back to that other guy from Arkansas, who had a lot of political energy and capital invested in the really monumental domestic policy issue of social security and health care, my memory insists that he had to let go, and water ambitions down to finally deliver the much less palatable version we all know or at least remember - until the current White House occupant moved in.
Now, I'll be the first to assert that domestic policy is very important; if only as a litmus test of the candidate's profile in elections. But I think it's just as fair to assert that, out there in the cold reality, domestic policy is extremely sensitive to the whims of the moment, where fickle Congressional maneuvering plays a massive part, where public opinion can move all about the map due to quite unforeseeable circumstances, etc. etc. That leads me to observe that a President's "grip" on a "key" domestic policy issue is mostly defined by the quality of his (her) staff, including the VP, rather than the "depth" of experience or even expertise in that peculiar domestic issue.
As I see it, it's a management issue, and as with many things in life: experts are more prone to screwing up with micromanagement than Big Idea people, more result-oriented and driving toward ultimate success.
And finally, having a rock-solid domestic policy plan doesn't take a genius, frankly. Once more, staff and advisers determine the quality and feasibility of the plan - the credibility is a matter of perception. As long as there's a substantial basis for credibility (again, harking back to the 2004 campaign, I see little lacking in his domestic policy package then) I see no problem, let alone a no-no factor for Wes Clark as a rock solid domestic policy proponent.
Well... Here I think that you're really underestimating Wes Clark. I think there's no such problem today. The biggest "panic moment" in his 2004 campaign took place very early on, when he came across as "waffling" on Iraq. That was, without doubt, attributable to his lack of "professional" campaign experience; I don't think he'll be easily placed in such a tactical bind, again.
But most importantly, I can't recall a "gaffe" that would have precluded him from acceding to a hypothetical Kerry cabinet. I can't recall -- not even in the silly "lieutenant moment" (instigated by the ever snarky Bob Dole) -- anything that transpired in the 2004 campaign that would have made a cabinet position politically imprudent. So why project
fear of the mere possibility of a serious accident as in inhibitor for Clark's ability to serve at the pleasure of the President? I honestly don't see that.
Anyhow... More than looking forward to it, I'll be
ready when he announces; I think he should, precisely because -- as Jai4WKC08 also says -- he's so focused on delivering the best policies, the ones this country needs, instead of the most marketable, that he's hands down the
best guy for the job.
He should run - especially this time. Because he's ready, willing, and able.
(P.S.: Watch Battlestar Galactica much? I'm thinking a loud "And so say we all!" here - :D I just
couldn't let an opportunity for cheesy cheer slip by, could I...)