Here's why presidential polls are meaningless at this point

[Clarkie1]

Gore is at 6% according to the recent polls. Everyone knows that if Gore should actually get in the race his support would skyrocket. I think that's something almost all Du'ers could agree on. It's all about name recognition at this point. Ask most voters who support Hillary, Obama, or Edwards why they support them and they won't be able to give you an answer. It's all media hype, and it's as likely as not that the nominee will not be one of the media darlings of today. It's going to be a long two years.

January 22, 2007

Senator Hillary Clinton Senator Hillary Clinton (D) made it official this week by finally revealing one of the worst-kept secrets in political history--she’s running for the White House in 2008. The former First Lady is viewed favorably by 50% of American voters and unfavorably by 48%.

From the beginning, the New York Senator has been ahead in all polling for the Democratic primary. However, a week ago, Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) had pulled to within a point of the frontrunner. Now, Clinton is ahead 31% to 24%. A week ago, it was Clinton 22% Obama 21%.

John Edwards (D) remains in third place, but dropped three points from last week and now earns support from 12% of Likely Democratic Primary voters.

Former Vice President Al Gore—who has not said he’s running--is the top choice for 6%. A new entrant in the race, Senator Joe Biden, is favored by 3%. Three others earn just 2% support. That list includes the party’s 2004 nominee John Kerry, General Wes Clark, and Senator Chris Dodd.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Political%20Tracking/Democratic%20Primaries/DemPrimary20070122.htm

[lancdem]

1. Gore would immediately jump into the top 4

there's little doubt about that.

[AtomicKitten]

2. I saw a poll on Countdown tonight

HRC - 41%
Obama - 17%
Edwards - 11%
Gore - 10%
Richardson - 1%

I consider polling like astrology - I only believe in it when it is favorable!

[sendero]

3. I don't think they are meaningless..

... but they certainly aren't meaningful.

Even when the vote is only a couple months away, polls can shift by double digits. Like a baseball game, it isn't over until it's over.

But, we all love polls. We all love some kind of measurement. I'm not sure they do much good, but I'm sure they aren't going away.

[KingofNewOrleans]

4. Poll aren't entirely meaningless

but they are definitely a function of name recognition and the media cycle at this point. The burst of Obamamania had an effect just as the recent media attention Hillary has gotten plays a role too.

Of course, the polls in Iowa, NH, SC, and Nev matter more because that's where the candidates with less cash can leverage themselves to take out the frontrunners. And the polls in those states will be heavily influenced by retail politicing (especially Iowa and NH) and organization.