2008 Democratic Presidential Nominee -- Current Odds

[harveyc]

Hillary 2.5 to 1 favorite over closest rival. Al Gore moves into double digits.

Odds based on $ bet --

10:00 pm EST - 1/25/07

2008 Democratic Presidential Nominee:

Hillary Clinton -- 48.4%
Barack Obama -- 18.8%
John Edwards -- 15.8%
Al Gore -- 10.5%

Remaining candidates all less than 2.5%

[Ignacio Upton]

1. Link?

These betting sites are bullshit. Didn't the odds of the Democrats taking the Senate tank on Election Day?

[harveyc]

4. Link --

I have been following the odds on this site since before the 2004 elections, they have been very accurate. In 06 they had the Senate going to the Dems months out and showing it was going to be close.

... > Politics > US 08 Elections

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

[illinoisprogressive]

2. But, this is by people not privy to the democratic party and their feelings

They don't have a clue that the left hates Hillary and she will face difficulties.
I will look at those odds come summer.
We may see new people. New names. New numbers and Hillary at the bottom of the heap!

[harveyc]

5. *smiling* - I find people who put $ on the line are less emotional ... n/t

[Trajan]

11. Very true ....

I used to love the Raiders, but when I played a weekly football pool, I dispassionately voted the line ....

[harveyc]

13. Great example ...

Not to offend anyone, but I see the high emotion here for Gen. Clark to get into the race and win the nomination.

If under that passion there was even the slightest realism he could win, one could bet $100 on that site and with Gen. Clark currently at 1 to 99 to win the nomination, his winning would result in a $10,000 pay out!

Unfortunately, I don't share that passion nor any feeling he has any chance to win.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

3. Which Way Will Hillary Go?

That's the question. If Obama, Edwards & Gore can eat into her 48%, look for Gore to give more indication he's at least starting to consider entering. I still doubt he would do so before early summer.

I could see Gore moving closer to 20%, taking away some votes of everybody, but more from Hillary. Obama & Edwards might move into the 20's, but it comes down to Hillary & Al I think.

[crispini]

7. Exactly.

Although I doubt that Al's poll numbers will go up substantially simply due to the fact that he hasn't declared. That in and of itself keeps people from looking at him seriously for many.

Hillary, OTOH, has nowhere to go but down, and I think she will go down as more people get a look at her. JMHO.

[saltpoint]

6. I realize real people are betting real money on these sites,

but I would be interested in to know the case record for the betting.

For example, what odds did these sites place for a Dick Gephardt win in Iowa at this time in 2003? By the time that state's caucus rolled around in January of 2004, Dick Gephardt was buried alive, wiped off the map by Kerry, Edwards, and Dean.

I'm not saying the sites' betting is wrong, only asking how they've done in the past.

[harveyc]

8. Unfortunately, I haven't kept a record for this site.

I believe this far out from an election, favorability ratings are more meaningful.

I do recall they had Corzine in 05 at 95% and in 06 Schwarzenegger at 95% and Lieberman at 85%, a month or two prior to the elections.

[saltpoint]

12. Hi, harveyc. Welcome to DU. Thanks for the stats.

It sounds as if the sites' numbers are fairly reliable. The idea that people are laying down big bucks gives it more authority than it might ordinarily have.

[harveyc]

14. Thanks for the Welcome ...

Right now the odds seem to be tracking the polls. It gets interesting when the odds start to deviate from the polls.

Last year I bought contracts on Lamont when he was down 1 to 2 odds vs. Lieberman. I sold the contracts when he fell behind 1 to 3. I think it was a bad bet, maybe somewhat emotional. But overall I agree that placing $ on the line gives it more credibility than polls or what pundits say.

[snowbear]

9. The hell with those odds... the BIG NEWS IS .........

Harvey FINALLY said it right !!!!!!!

Democratic

[harveyc]

10. *laughing* -- n/t

[harveyc]

15. No significant changes after Iowa / New Orleans visits.

Still pretty much tracking latest polls.

Hillary 2.5 to 1 favorite over closest rival.

Odds based on $ bet --

12:00 pm EST - 1/30/07

2008 Democratic Presidential Nominee:

Hillary Clinton -- 46.7%
Barack Obama -- 19.0%
John Edwards -- 15.9%
Al Gore -- 9.0%

Remaining candidates all less than 3.0%

[Apollo11]

16. Sportsbook.com has Al Gore in second place behind Hillary

Check the lates odds for exotics at Sportsbook.com
http://www.sportsbook.com/sportsbook/livelines.php

To win the Presidential election in November 2008, they have Hillary as the favorite (1-1).

These are the latest odds to win the Whitehouse (not the Democratic nomination) ...

Hillary Clinton (1-1)
Al Gore (3-1)
Barack Obama (6-1)
John Edwards (8-1)
Wesley Clark (20-1)

Let's all find ways to show our support for Al Gore! :)

In Gore We Trust
www.algore.com
www.algore.org
www.draftgore.com - Sign the petition!
www.draftgore2008.org
www.patriotsforgore.com