Early "Line" on '08 Presidential candidates

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
The Line: Can Any '08er Knock Off McCain or Clinton?

....As always, the No. 1 candidates below are the ones most likely to win their party's nomination in 2008 -- at this still-early stage in the 2008 cycle....

DEMOCRATS

1. HIllary Rodham Clinton: After two years of waiting, Clinton is officially in the presidential race. And for all the hype -- much of it deserved -- surrounding Obama, Clinton still carries huge institutional advantages in this race. Often forgotten is the fact that Clinton will be the only woman in the race -- a not insignificant edge in a Democratic primary. (The Post's Lois Romano detailed the opportunities and challenges Clinton faces in wooing women to her cause.) She also will have as much money as she needs to spend on building a top-notch organization and running scads of television ads in early states. And were we the only ones who were surprised by Clinton's 40 percent lead over Obama among black voters in the two most recent Post-ABC polls? (Previous ranking: 1)

2. (tie) John Edwards: We hear more negative rumors about Edwards than we do about all of the other Democrats combined. He's struggling to raise money. He abandoned the people who helped him in 2004. He can't find quality staff in early primary states. Hogwash (to quote Vice president Cheney), according to Edwards insiders. So are all the Edwards naysayers a sign of his strength? Or is it just that people plain don't like him. We don't know the right answer. Here's what we do know. His campaign rollout drew kudos from even his most bitter critics. and he continues to lead the field in Iowa. For now, that's good enough to keep him in the second slot on The Line. (Previous ranking: 2)

2. (tie) Barack Obama: Despite the massive levels of media coverage, The Fix was comfortable keeping Obama in the No. 3 slot until he rolled out the names in his political inner circle. The group, which is arguably the strongest in the field, includes people who possess deep knowledge of national campaign and nomination fights and should make up for their candidate's lack of experience on the national stage. Obama is an immensely talented politician, but we're withholding a full swoon until we see how he wears on the campaign trail over the next few months. One side note: If you haven't read Michael Fletcher's story on how Obama's candidacy is playing in the black community, do it now. How Obama balances his support in the black community with his need to appeal to white voters will be an ongoing storyline in the 2008 campaign. (Previous ranking: 3)

3. Open, see No. 2.

4. Bill Richardson: There's a considerable gap at the moment between Clinton, Obama and Edwards ... and everyone else. Richardson, who formally announced his candidacy less than 24 hours after Clinton made hers official, earns this spot on The Line based on his impressive resume -- governor, congressman, ambassador, cabinet secretary -- and his Hispanic heritage. Plus, Richardson is one of the biggest personalities in the race and should get plenty of press coverage because of his willingness to talk (and talk) with reporters about just about anything. If one of the top three stumbles, Richardson is best positioned to move up. (Previous ranking: 4)...

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/01/the_friday_presidential_line_2.html#more

[lancdem]

1. I'll take any of the top 3

[PATRICK]

2. I would counter

this whole line up with the lousy record of early "favorites" and media anointed heavyweights. They only temper their poor judgment with cynical writing off of qualified underfunded no-names. Sportscasters with their overall record and methods would hopefully be fired although they are supposedly more prone to fan enthusiasm bias and emotions.

In reality, Clinton like Kerry, but less deservedly, is put out in front by dint of money and organization, replete with negatives but utterly obeisant to some sort of dollar bill dominance sniffing. The thrilling fandom of more popular candidates comes in with as many new prejudices and errors. McCain being the biggest lunacy of degraded charism and support carryoing extreme vulnerability with each tick of name recognition and presumption. Burned so often in the past they are "withholding their full swoon" to see how the real wind will blow.

So the real value is in the details which are not so open. That Obama, for a beginner has a strong staff while Edwards with name recognition may not. But that Obama will be playing cautiously is something that is not changing. That Edwards will be in reality in the same hopeful state as he was last campaign, name recog balanced out by little organization gain, overshadowed, again, by others. That Clinton's negatives will start to shock the handicappers as much as her early prominence is one surprise likely to come. There are several inevitability factors there as much as her electoral constituency opposition is solid and highly prejudicial.

The early field and the selection would gain immensely at this stage by a Gore candidacy and a Clark and send all these court astrologers with burnt fingers back to their charts. Handicapping today misses its relevance for the actual primary future. The elections are not held today and the people are not prepared for or reflecting their vote. Yet the information itself is valuable for those nonchalantly presuming we will have fair and equal choices come next year. Something the thrill-seeking MSM can't fathom at all as a democratic necessity or good.

[saltpoint]

3. I enjoy reading The Fix. I don't stack our candidates up

in the same order as Cillizza, but it's still fun to read his column.

No matter how we each order the Democratic candidates personally, the accumulative field makes the GOP field look like a pack of idiots.

Go blue team.

[Apollo11]

4. Sportsbook.com has Al Gore in second place behind Hillary

Here are the latest odds if you want to place a bet on a Democrat winning the Presidency in November 2008:

Hillary Clinton 1-1
Al Gore 3-1
Barack Obama 6-1
John Edwards 8-1
Bill Richardson 12-1

See the "Exotics" at http://www.sportsbook.com/sportsbook/livelines.php

Personally I don't like the early start to the 2008 Presidential election campaign. Don't forget that Bill Clinton announced his candidacy in October 1991 and still went on to win.

Candidates are taking the risk that people will get bored of their campaigns before 2008!

I predict that the race for the Dem nomination will stay wide open thru the Fall.

If I'm right then it could provide the circumstances for Al Gore to "change his mind" and enter the race as late as November 4th, which would be exactly one year before election day.

I say "change his mind" - but I believe that right now Al Gore is keeping his options open. He hasn't ruled out running again and he still has some time to watch the field and consider his options.

Let's all find ways to show our support for Al Gore! :)

In Gore We Trust
www.algore.com
www.algore.org
www.draftgore.com - Sign the petition!
www.draftgore2008.org
www.patriotsforgore.com