"Something is missing" in Iowa; race "wide open"

[Clarkie1]

Washington Post
Monday, January 29, 2007

<snip>

"Competent and capable, but she's my fourth choice," said Dale Hedgecoth, a carpenter at a local high school.

"Strong, but not it," added Dona Howe, a first-grade teacher.

The 14 party activists were invited by The Washington Post to come together to talk about the presidential race. All are currently uncommitted. Their views are in no way a scientific sample, but as voters who pay especially close attention to presidential politics, they offer clues to the future in their impressions.

At the end of the conversation, these activists were asked whether they are leaning toward any particular candidates. Six said they are totally uncommitted. Of the other eight, three mentioned Clinton as one of the candidates they are looking at with the most interest.

Their opinions underscored what polls and strategists are saying: The Democratic race in Iowa is wide open. There is great interest in Illinois Sen. Barack Obama but many questions about whether he is ready to be president. Former senator John Edwards of North Carolina is well known to Iowa activists, but for someone leading the polls here he evoked a curiously unenthusiastic reaction among many in the group. Other candidates sparked limited interest, although there were kind words for former Iowa governor Tom Vilsack, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware.

<snip>

Most of those in the group strongly oppose the Iraq war, and Clinton's 2002 vote authorizing Bush to go to war rankles many. Several said they want to hear fuller explanations from her about why she voted the way she did and how she would try to end the war and bring the troops home.

Bob Bromely, with his wife, Ann, said Hillary Clinton "dodged the issue" of the Iraq war during her Iowa visit.

"Having read all the press accounts" about her opening day in Iowa, "I still don't know what she's going to do," said Roy Porterfield, an unemployed automotive manager.

"She dodged the issue," said Bob Bromley, a retired clergyman.

"That's what concerns me," Porterfield responded. "Is there any single greater issue than the war? She better offer a solution to that real quick."

<snip>

Around the table, Obama evoked some of the most effusive responses, with repeated use of the word "charismatic." But the group was decidedly split about whether he is ready to be president.

Joe Stutler, a systems analyst, said that "the C-word, 'charismatic' " describes his view of Obama but that the senator reminds him of a rock star coming off the release of a double-platinum album. "Is the first album the one and only?" he asked. "Is he a one-hit wonder? I can see him as vice president now."

But Liz Belden, a retired educator, said Obama is just what the country needs. "In my estimation, he is a gem, he's one in a million, and he does have the experience, if you read his books," she said. "I would like to see a mind like that go to Washington, D.C."

Edwards has been to Iowa 17 times in the past two years and leads many of the early polls in the state. Seen as personable, bright and compassionate by these activists, he nonetheless left them struggling to explain why they had doubts about him as a potential president.

"I really like Edwards," said Ann Bromley, a retired city worker. "I think he's intelligent and compassionate. I don't think he's electable, and I don't know why. Something is missing." Others nodded in agreement.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/28/AR2007012801321_2.html

[Leilani]

1. Great minds think alike!

Just read this article at MSNBC & was thinking about posting it.

IMO, there is a lot of indecision out there. Each candidate has strengths, but real weaknesses.

The total package has not yet arrived. I believe that package/candidate is Wes Clark & I hope he announces soon.

Look to the response of the Jim Webb speech. An ex-vet speaking truth to power in an intelligent way. He won raves, & Wes Clark could be just as effective.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

2. Burning out viciously

The Iowa Caucus is still wide open, only 11 months before it starts? Complete madness.

[Dinger]

3. Damn Right Something's Missing!

Or should I say someone?? Hmmmmm, wonder who or what that is?

[Apollo11]

4. I predict this race will stay wide open thru the Fall

The race for the Dem nomination will stay wide open - not only in Iowa but also nationally.

Personally I don't like the early start to the 2008 Presidential election campaign. Don't forget that Bill Clinton announced his candidacy in October 1991 and still went on to win.

Candidates are taking the risk that people will get bored of their campaigns before 2008!

If I'm right then it could provide the circumstances for Al Gore to "change his mind" and enter the race as late as November 4th, which would be exactly one year before election day.

I say "change his mind" - but I believe that right now Al Gore is keeping his options open. He hasn't ruled out running again and he still has some time to watch the field and consider his options.

Let's all find ways to show our support for Al Gore! :)

In Gore We Trust
www.algore.com
www.algore.org
www.draftgore.com - Sign the petition!
www.draftgore2008.org
www.patriotsforgore.com

[Leilani]

7. I don't like the early campaign either.

It works to the advantage of the big money people who can spend & spend.

I know many Dems don't like Iowa & New Hampshire, but they do serve a purpose. It gives Dark Horse candidates a chance to connect with voters. It also keeps costs down, with media expenditures lower in than larger states.

How can a candidate campaign one on one in California? They can't, they just buy advertising.

[haypops]

13. how about 3

How can a candidate campaign one on one in California? They can't, they just buy advertising.

I wonder if there has ever been serious consideration of splitting California into three for purposes of the primary only. Southern, Northern, and Central California are quite different socially and politically.

[CornField]

19. If you want retail politics

That is, if you want the media to play an even larger role in choosing the candidates, put a large state at the front.

Iowa and New Hampshire are at the front because we not only deserve to be there (we know our politics and we take them seriously) but also because it allows pretty much any person to toss his/her hat into the ring. For those who wish to debate the deserving point, I'm more than willing to grab anyone off the street in Iowa or New Hampshire and let that person go head-to-head against anyone you grab off the street in your state. The folks here are very much aware of their responsibility and they do their homework -- not relying on MSNBC, CNN or FOX to give them their information. Saturday here in Iowa was a single-digit temperature day. Yet Clinton spoke to standing room only crowds everywhere she went. The online ticket functionality of her web site was overwhelmed as Iowans pounded it, trying to get there and ask their own pointed questions. At the evening event, some people parked blocks away and walked in 5 degree weather to the location. Still others, who were not attending the event, stood on the corners outside with their signs.

The really interesting part? That doesn't just happen for Hillary. That happens for each and every candidate who comes around. We want to see them, want to know them and want to ask them everything the media types seems too scared to say themselves.

If you want to change things and make them better, leave Iowa and New Hampshire alone... move the rest of the field back so that we don't have our candidate named mid-February and leave him/her hanging out there alone for months. What's going on right now is ignorance and egotism at our candidate's and party's expense. Nevada and South Carolina, if they were to be moved, should have been placed after both Iowa and New Hampshire. The other states who are threatening to turn Feb. 5 into Super Tuesday should take a real hard look as to their own motives.

[Bluzmann57]

5. Speaking as an undecided Iowan...

It's just too damn early to commit. It's January 29, 2007, the caucuses aren't until next year, and there are a couple of (potential) candidates who I would like to see declare who haven't. So let's just wait and see what happens between now and then. Perhaps luntz can instruct us who to support, like he did last time.
Please note that the last sentence of the above post is :sarcasm:

[Apollo11]

6. Good for you Bluzmann57 !!

It doesn't make sense to choose until you know what the choice will be.

If certain candidates want to start fundraising now, that's their problem.

[mnhtnbb]

8. Does anyone else appreciate the irony of quoting Iowans on

how electable a candidate might be?

[elleng]

26. HOW electable?

Considering or NOT considering Republican thievery?

[IA_Seth]

27. And how then, did the rest of the country vote?

Did you want to be like Iowa so bad that you had to vote just like them?

empty arguments

[PATRICK]

9. I'd say, advantage Obama

if he is going to be viable at all he has to break the circular reasoning. POLITICAL experience is what the real issue is whatever the citizens think about the executive kind. To prove the latter he has to demonstrate great strength in the former. Without the former he would fail anyway so it is the single task to show political brilliance in the campaign itself. What appears as an anchor is just an opening and a potential for great enthusiasm.

The others have no such opening but have the worn baggage weightiness upon them which no extra work can remove except by becoming "charismatic" enough to shatter doubt. Edwards too needs to display movement to the next level and seems not only effaced by the second rate primary result he was stuck with and the presumed shadow under Kerry but by actually not taking or getting any legacy increase of bigtime support from 2004. If this is all subconscious losing stigma and no party organization payoff for Edwards it also signal that Hillary with several taints of campaign difficulties and leadership is doomed despite heavy party institutional support.

It is early. it might not end up that wide open but I think it is hard for them to get "fed up" with the top candidates and go for a favorite son sentiment. That will not likely have much clout toward a brokered convention so impossible is the scenario nowadays. There will be a decision and they want to be the ones to come to it first. Then there is the question about who knows how to run the caucus gauntlet.
This time the top candidates likely have learned about last to maybe even out the organizational advantages.

[LibDemAlways]

10. Since the media whores have all but coronated Hillary,

it's interesting to hear from actual party activists that she's not their first choice after all. I'm sensing Dems are thinking they want more options. Al and Wes, please take a hint!

[JPZenger]

11. Dems Need a Fresh Start

The Dems need a fresh start. They need a candidate who can appeal to middle America, and who can be trusted by them. The Dems don't need a candidate such as HRC who starts out with such negative perceptions among so many voters. Many voters don't want to be reminded of past partisan bickering during the Bill Clinton-Gingrich era and want someone who can be completely forward-looking.

(My own preference is Bill Richardson, who combines administrative and foreign policy experience with an ability to really be comfortable in cowboy boots and jeans. Also, once Iraq goes completely to hell, he will be free from blame about it.)

NPR this morning talked about the hoopla over Hilary. Her speech in Iowa got big front page coverge in the NY Times, while the story about Congressional leaders going to Afghanistan was a little wire service article on page A-10.

[CornField]

12. Took part in that interview

It was interesting not only to be a part of it, but to listen to what everyone else had to say. It was especially interesting at the end when we went around and everyone said their choices... I think there was only one who had Hillary listed in their top two.

IMO, it is entirely too early for anyone to be pitching their tent in any candidate's camp. Right now, I know more about who I would not support than who I would.

[Pirate Smile]

14. Cool, Cornfield! Can you give us a general run down? Were any

of the candidates that aren't running mentioned as options people wanted?

More details, please? :)

[CornField]

15. I believe all the hopefuls were discussed at one point or another

Out of the field, the only name not discussed was Gore. (Not sure why... maybe because he has publicly stated he isn't going to run?)

It was a round table -- about 14 dems present. We first went around the table with introductions -- who we were, what role we played as activists, our key issues, etc. Of course, the most prominent issue named was the Iraq war/the U.S. status in the world. Other issues high on everyone's lists were education (both secondary and higher), the economy, healthcare and civil rights/liberties. Verifiable elections were also discussed -- although not to the extent of the others.

There was a lot of discussion about a lot of candidates -- most of it never made it into print. I guess, with the Clinton visit, the focus was placed on that. In particular I was surprised to see how much respect Biden had in the group... and the overall non-positive reaction to Edwards. There were only two of us in the group who had seen Hillary over the weekend.

Overall, there was no candidate who you could term a front runner for those in the group -- it was very mixed, with most of us refusing to name our top two at this point. There were harsh words and praise for each of the candidates -- as should be expected a year out from the caucus.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

16. Gore?

"Out of the field, the only name not discussed was Gore. (Not sure why... maybe because he has publicly stated he isn't going to run?)"

He has said he currently has no plans to run for public office again.

He has never definitively said that under no circumstances is he going to run.

[mnhtnbb]

18. Can you elaborate on reasons for non-positive reaction to Edwards?

[CornField]

20. I'll try

Most people liked him -- knew him well since he has visited so often -- but said there was 'something' unappealing about him. One person said she didn't like the way he stammered with "ahhs" and "uhmms" when he spoke. Another person said that was one of the things she liked about him -- that he didn't seem to be giving you a polished speech, but was speaking to you as a group/person fresh each time.

Quite frankly, I didn't understand it at all. To me personally, he is one of the most genuine and sincere candidates I've seen.

I know a lot of people really like him but are concerned about the previous unsuccessful bid as VP. Historically, Democratic activists have not been willing to toss the same person out there. It will be something he will need to overcome, I think.

[mnhtnbb]

21. Thanks for the info. It would indeed seem that um'ing and ah'ing

is related to formulating your thoughts. That could be interpreted
a lot of different ways: having not thought of the question; trying to avoid answering the question; trying to better articulate a position
which hasn't been stated so often it's rote.

[IA_Seth]

24. Clark?

Was there any mention of Clark?

I won't be too disappointed if there wasn't a lot of talk, since he didn't campaign here in 04 (and its somewhat held against him), but I'm still curious.

[CornField]

25. Yes, but not much

He wasn't a subject of the larger discussion, but his name came up when we were asked what we thought of others we hadn't discussed yet. And, yes, it is still being held against him for skipping Iowa in 2004.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

17. Al Gore Was Apparently Missing

"Out of the field, the only name not discussed was Gore. (Not sure why... maybe because he has publicly stated he isn't going to run?)"

I'm looking forward to this summer, when the eventual victor enters the race.

[AtomicKitten]

23. my first thought

[FrenchieCat]

22. Was Clark mentioned? I didn't see his name in the story anywhere.....

cause he could also be the missing element, IMO.