60% Say Dems Likely to Nominate White Male

[FrenchieCat]

This is why I believe that Obama has no chance (because many won't vote for him fearing that others won't vote for him, and so on, and so on...), that Hillary with her high negatives both due to those who think they know her and don't like her, and those who won't really vote for a woman (even if they say they will), leaves John Edwards standing...Which is why all this stuff about Edwards not getting any press is ridiculous.....he'll get his (and actually he's gotten just enough press under the circumstance to keep in the top tier). Richardson further cuts down the minority vote, thereby further weakening the numbers that Clinton and Obama could have gotten.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, a woman is the clear frontrunner and an African-American is clearly in the number two position. Between them, they attract support from roughly half of all Democrats.

However, despite the current support for Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (news, bio, voting record), 60% of American voters believe that Democrats are likely to nominate a White Male for President in 2008. Just 27% say that's not likely to happen. Among Democrats, 73% say their party is likely to nominate a White Male. That figure includes 30% who consider the possibility Very Likely and 43% who say it's Somewhat Likely.

There is no gender gap on this question, but 81% of black voters believe the Democrats will nominate a White Male. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of white voters agree. Earlier surveys had found that roughly eight-out-of-ten voters express a willingness to personally vote for either a woman or an African-American candidate. However, just over half believe their family, friends, and co-workers are willing to do the same.

Overall, 80% say that the next President of the United States is likely to be a White Male. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Republicans hold this view along with 78% of Democrats. Among all voters, 46% say it's Very Likely that a White Male will be elected while 34% believe it's Somewhat Likely.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/rasmussen/20070129/pl_rasmussen/whitemale20070129&printer=1;_ylt=AiMk17sMzY3O_yj7ReVHiqzzj9AF;_ylu=X3oDMTA3MXN1bHE0BHNlYwN0bWE-

The following linked story discusses this at phenomenon at length....
http://www.rapidfire-silverbullets.com/2007/01/2008_candidatestoo_much_of_a_g.html

[David Dunham]

1. Hillary's leading in all the polls with actual candidates. My bet is on her.

[FrenchieCat]

3. She's leading a year in advance.....

So I'm not betting on her winning.....

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Folks want to be winners, and so they usually get on the winning wagon....and by the time a year goes by, Hillary's wagon won't be the one. She's already getting skeptical receptions in Iowa....

She's got nowhere to go but down......and I for one believe that is exactly what will happen.

Iowa ain't gonna go for it, and they'll select someone else......

That's why I'm hoping Clark gets in, cause when they look at who has the experience to get this international shit right; they'll select him, even if the media didn't. Otherwise, it's Edwards to lose....as the only southern white guy in the bunch....even with his limited experience and his lack of judgment on Iraq, he'll beat Obama just cause of what the article says...with which I agree.

When 80% of minorities are saying that an African-American won't make it to the White House; believe them....

When among Democrats, 73% say their party is likely to nominate a White Male, believe them.

[illinoisprogressive]

2. We will elect an African American President in 08

[FrenchieCat]

4. I'd like to believe that.....just like I'd like to believe in Santa Claus....

Maybe it is the same reason that more White folks thinks that racism is almost a thing of the past, while 85% of African Americans believes that racism is alive and well.

Watch and listen, and you will see.

[Dean Martin]

27. I'd love to see it!

I'll always be an Obama supporter.

[beaconess]

5. Or maybe more people will vote for him to prove those numbers wrong . . .

which is just as rational a theory as yours. Under your theory, any candidate who does not poll in the majority has no chance of winning - why do you apply this only to Obama?

Moreover, such poll are worthless since the campaign hasn't even started yet. There's a reason candidate campaign - because through the course of selling themselves to voters, they change people's minds. I'd bet a majority of people in 1991 would have said a Democratic governor of Arkansas couldn't beat George H.W. Bush. Thank goodness Bill Clinton didn't fold up his tent.

There are any number of polls that support any number of positions, regardless what they are. For example, most polls show that a majority of people believe that a black person can be elected president.

I am really troubled that some Democrats are so eager to spin everything in the worst possible way.
I don't buy the notion that a black person can't win because a black person won't win and think it's a shame that so many Democrats seem willing to fall into the institutional racism trap that is designed to ensure that blacks don't succeed and the status quo is maintained without anyone actually having to engage in any overt racist action. With that attitude, blacks will NEVER get anywhere and the cycle of second-class citizenship will consistently recycle and perpetuate itself - until someone breaks free of it. Obama may be the one to do just that. And even if he's not, why consistently spit on his chances as if to say, "Hey, boy - don't reach too high since you might not make it?"

[FrenchieCat]

6. The numbers bear out my theory....

and unfortunately it will bear out during the primary....

That's what I think......

Now, if there were more than one White Boy in the top tier, I would agree with you that Obama's got as good a chance as anyone else....but the way the tier has been "fixed".....it looks good for Edwards. That's all I'm saying. :shrug:

[beaconess]

7. What numbers do you have that show that people won't vote for Obama because they don't think he'll

win?

Your constant insistence that a black man can't win is really sad. Thank God everybody isn't as fatalistic as you seem to be.

[FrenchieCat]

9. Number 1, I don't "constantly" insist that a Black man can't win.....

and if so, please find those posts for me.

Number 2, the article I just posted basically says that 80% of folks believe that the next President will be a white man. I didn't make up those numbers.

Number 3, maybe it is posts like mine that will get people to thinking more about this whole thing...and maybe it will encourage more folks to go against the grain due to these discussions as opposed to them thinking that they are doing somekind of brilliant strategic voting by voting for the white guy....cause they will never have heard the argument against it.

I was at a casino night party at my cousin's house in Oakland. My Cousin is married to a Black public defender who also works in Oakland. I was talking to a couple of this Black co-workers invited, both attorneys. We were discussing politics, and each mentioned Edwards as someone to vote for. Well, as you know, although I DON'T CONSTANTLY say anything negative about Barack Obama, I would prefer NOT TO HAVE John Edwards to be the nominee....so I asked them why they would vote for Edwards over Obama?....and they each really said the same thing.... what I said in my top post....that they don't think that a Black Man can be elected President in this country at this time and they want their vote to count.

Bottomline is that I don't make up this stuff.....but I'd rather folks started thinking about this issue a year ahead of time, as opposed to it just slapping us down if it were to happen.

So you challenging me in a very personal way is not really gonna help matters....while a good conversation that others can read just might.

[beaconess]

10. You probably don't mean it to sound that way, but pointing to something two black people told you

as proof of how people feel sounds really patronizing, as if these two black people speak for the rest of us.

I think it's admirable that you want to start folks thinking about this, but the way you're going about it, in my view, doesn't make people think - it just seems to perpetuate a negative meme that doesn't do any of us any good.

Certainly, Obama - and any other black person running for president - faces a challenge. But it's not insurmountable and I think it's up to those of us who know better to help educate those who don't.

People are never ready for change until change is put in front of them. And people are not likely to go along with change when it's posed to them as a theory, rather than reality. It's one thing to ask people whether they think America's ready to vote for a black president or whether they themselves will vote for a black president - that's extremely abstract and makes it difficult for people to wrap their minds around the reality of actually voting for a black person. However, when people are confronted with something concrete - i.e., "will you vote for Barack Obama?" or "can Barack Obama beat candidate X, Y or Z?" I think the results will be very different.

What's different about this race is that Americans will be confronted with a real choice, not an abstract, vague, faceless, nameless black person. I think that will make all the difference in the world.

[FrenchieCat]

13. Well in real life, one talks to folks, and that is how opinions are formed

apart from the news media.

As a Black person speaking to other Black people, I never said that their opinions were the only valid opinions...and I will say that after talking to them, they will not be voting for John Edwards....and they will be looking at Obama closely.

My husband supports Obama....cause he's from the "What your mind shall conceive, you can achieve" school of thought, and ain't nothing wrong with that....I'm just less hopeful and more practical in my analysis these days, that's all.

Don't think that this polls are at Yahoo News for nothing....of course it is a way of subliminally infecting voters minds....to the exact end I posted about.

And of course you are right, I don't believe that one, two, three or even four Black people speak for us.....but my credentials are as good as yours or any others, and I talk to many people here in the Oakland Bay Area, one of the most liberal areas in the United States.....and I talk to many people at my church, including Barbara Lee and Folks that work for Mayor Dellums (I have not yet met him) and I even talk politics at the beauty shop! Don't think that I am a Clark partisan wherever I go, because I am not...and I do a lot more listening than I do talking a lot of the time. I might educate folks about the General if the conversation lends itself to it....but a lot of times I'm guaging what people feel, not boosting Clark (a lot of folks don't even know who he is....so figures, I can't always go there anyways).

For me, if it is a choice between Obama and Edwards, Obama wins hands down. I believe that Obama exhibited the right judgment on Iraq early on, and for me, that puts Obama head over shoulder over Edwards. Obama also gets my vote above Hillary Clinton, who I don't think is the devil reincarnated...but I just resent her riding on her husband's coattail and hasn't shown a day of courage besides the day that she found out that her husband had been unfaithful to her. Since then, she's gone downhill in my view.

Soooo in other words, if Clark (I support him due to his vast experience and knowledge in being one that can get us out of Iraq and can calm the world down some) doesn't run, who do you think I would support? (Richardson's skeletons are gonna get him...unless he ends up as Hillary's VP if she wins, which I doubt she will)? So again.....this is why this is the time to be having that conversation, IMO.

[Imagevision]

23. And there's the question of how many "plants" work political chatrooms against Obama?? because

of the serious threat he does pose to Hillary, for goodness sakes, Clarke hasn't announced whether or not if he'll run.

Anyone concerned about why the campaigning started so early this time??

[beaconess]

24. I wouldn't accuse Hillary's or any other Dem's people without proof

But I certainly wouldn't put this past the party that perfected the dirty trick . . .

[ThoughtCriminal]

8. So much for Kodos and Kang

[Auntie Bush]

11. Clark's a white male!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[FrenchieCat]

14. Well it is my personal belief that two white southern guys in the race

would provide a more level playing field for Obama.....no matter what theory one chooses to operate under.

[GeorgeGist]

12. They may be half-right...

because IIRC Obama is half-white.

[AtomicKitten]

15. I think Dems are anxious to nominate a minority candidate.

I would gladly vote for Obama.

Gobama.

[FrenchieCat]

17. so explain how having as many minorities each vying for the same

office with only one White Male contender considered in the top tier is gonna help get us there?

Richardson is running...and don't think that he won't get a lot of the minority vote that Obama might have gotten otherwise......or Hillary might have gotten.

The minority vote is being watered down....because it is being split...and it will hurt all of the minority candidates.....unfortunately.

I realize it is not all clear cut race wise, and certainly plenty of cross over will occur....but I honestly don't believe that enough of it will, based on what I know about race relations in the United states.

[AtomicKitten]

20. It will matter in the general election.

In fact, it will stimulate a turn-out never seen before.

[FrenchieCat]

21. Yes...but we have to get to the general election, don't we.....

I learned that hard lesson in 2004.

[thatsrightimirish]

16. So?

If i were betting on it I say we probably are going to end up nominating a white male. But that doesn't mean 60% of Americans aren't going to vote for a woman or minority.

[FrenchieCat]

19. and that is where the trouble begins.....

to have a woman, an African American and an hispanic running, but yet the bets are on the white male to win.....you'd think that the odds would be greater that a minority 3 to 1 would win....but the math doesn't work that way......

so that's the problem in a nutshell.

[Imagevision]

18. This thread suggests that Dems believe everything they read? I say poppycock!

and welcome president Barack Obama...!

[FrenchieCat]

22. well, I'm just putting those stats here at DU...since they are

at Yahoo New, I didn't think that ignoring them would serve a purpose....because you'll see some more of those...each will reinforce the meme that we should just vote for the White guy if we want to ride the winner's wagon.

As you know, based on whom I support, I ain't been on a winner's wagon yet...so this ain't about me not wanting to work hard for what I want. But many don't want to work hard...they just want to go with a possible winner.

[Imagevision]

25. Do many here believe they've formed an opinion already about 2008??

If Clark or Gore entered the race tomorrow? would it be meaningless?

[FrenchieCat]

30. The stats might still hold....it's just more people in the race would have

better odds, except for the only WASP in the top tier today; Than an Obama could win it.

[Infinite Hope]

26. Absurd.

Thinking Dems won't nominate black/female isn't the same as not supporting a black/female. The issue of whether a black/female can be nominated/elected is a question of whether Democrats would support a black/female. Not whether they think a black/female will actually end up elected.

All this means is they don't expect it, though they probably support it. 100% of the Democratic Party could expect a white male to be nominated and 100% of the vote could still go to Obama. It's absurd to connected the two. Expectations and personal preferences are two completely different things.

[burrowowl]

28. If Kucinich is nominated

I wouldn't bitch. Is Hispanic Bill Richardson included in White or not. Do they mean WASP?

[FrenchieCat]

29. Yes WASP....

I all cases, I do believe that the 3 to 1 option will allow Dems to feel good, but I don't know if it will change a thing at the end this time round.