WASHINGTON - Sen. Barack Obama (news, bio, voting record)'s dramatic rise in support among African-Americans signals a shift in the race for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination that is larger than just the black vote. Overall, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is still on top, but her lead is shrinking. And polls show Senator Obama of Illinois has more room for growth than she does, because of her high negatives.
"We have a real horserace," says John Zogby, an independent pollster whose latest data show that Obama leads Clinton among black Democratic voters 36 percent to 27 percent.
A Washington Post/ABC News poll released Tuesday showed a similar trend: Obama leads Clinton among black Democratic voters 44 to 30. In both December and January, the Post/ABC poll had Clinton beating Obama among African-Americans 60 to 20. Overall, the latest Post/ABC poll shows Clinton beating Obama 36 to 24, down from a 41-17 split in January. The Post attributes the gains of Obama, who is black, to his rise in support among African-Americans.
Of course, it's early; the first caucuses and primaries are almost 11 months away. But Obama has the momentum and buzz, and is drawing phenomenal crowds. Last Friday, 20,000 people came to see him speak in Austin, Texas. Between 15,000 and 17,000 people showed up in frigid temperatures for his announcement speech Feb. 10 in Springfield, Ill.
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