Establishment Frightened Of African-American Swing to Obama

[carpe diem]

I find Chris Bowers analysis very intriguing and rather exciting.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/3/2/13525/13177

(excerpt)
...............
It is not difficult to see how the rise of Obama could distress certain elements in the media. Since at least 2005, it has been widespread CW within elite media and political circles that Clinton would be a shoe-in for the nomination because of her supposed rock-hard support among African-Americans. It was assumed that this support would inoculate her against any potential netroots challenge from the old Dean coalition, which, whether or not it is accurate, is still perceived in those same circles as being young people and liberals. Now, large elements of the old Dean coalition are merging with African-Americans to pose an extremely serious challenge to Clinton. This is dangerous to the media and political elite for at least three reasons: it shows the CW was wrong, poses a threat to the political machine status quo, and greatly enhances the strategic positioning of netroots power. A netroots alliance with African-Americans forms a powerful reform coalition within the Democratic Party that even the Clinton machine might not be able to stop. In Chicago in early 2004, I saw this alliance steamroll anything that stood in its way, and wondered if it could happen on a national stage. Considering that Obama is once again the candidate leading the alliance, I am left with a striking feeling of déjà vu. Right now, Obama is still tied with Clinton among African-Americans, and with Edwards among the netroots. If he were to take a sizable advantage in either category, much less both, the days of Clinton's lead would be over.

Whatever people may think of Obama himself, his coalition is a real threat to the establishment status quo. I can't help but wonder how much this threat plays in role in the constant drumbeat about whether or not he is "black enough" to deserve African-American support. CNN recently had Candy Crowley pump out another story along those lines, and now the Baltimore Sun is doing the same. Overall, Google comes up with 100,000 results for a search on "Barack Obama" and "black enough." The entire question strikes me as a constant drumbeat designed to keep African-American support behind establishment political machines, and to prevent the above described reform alliance from coalescing. It also makes me realize that if Obama manages to win the Democratic nomination via this alliance, expect the nastiest smear season ever against him in the general--the sort of shit that will make swiftboating seem mild. This is because whether or not Obama is a threat to the status quo, the netroots-African American coalition absolutely is. Expect virtually every element of the establishment to do whatever it can to make sure that it is never allowed to take power in America.
...................

Anybody ready for a revolution?!?!

[bigluckyfeet]

1. No More Clintons,No More *****

No More Warmongers!

[Ninja Jordan]

2. "large elements of the old Dean coalition are merging with African-Americans...

to pose an extremely serious challenge to Clinton."

That pretty much sums it up.

[illinoisprogressive]

3. Revolution against the establishment candidate? Oh, yeah. run barack run!

[Clarkie1]

4. That's a facinating argument....

and I can see how it could very well play out.

Yes, I'm ready for a revolution! And Obama is my choice, unless Clark or Gore runs.

[madville]

5. This Democratic primary is going to be ugliest ever seen

It is going to be many times louder and get more coverage than the Republican effort. I couldn't tell you who will be left standing but some block of our party will feel alienated when it is all over, might be african-americans, might be Hillary supporters (I haven't run across any yet since I think her numbers are just name recognition at this point), might be the "blue dog type" part of the Democratic party that doesn't want Hillary or Obama in charge. It is certainly going to be fun to watch, politics is about on the same level as pro wrestling these days.

[tridim]

8. I don't think it'll be that bad . We're the adults.

I do think lots of good ideas for our future will come out of this primary, as long as we can keep the inevitable swiftboating bullshit from taking over the news.

[Robson]

9. A white horse candidate

It will be interesting and it could lead to a Gore entry as the untainted candidate on the white horse. But Gore had better keep his wits and common sense about him and not build a 29K square foot house or buy a 747 for his trips abroad.

Perceived hypocrisy by the electorate is a candidate nullifier, and any candidate capable and worth winning should understand that.

[grasswire]

6. who has measured the alleged swing, and what are the numbers?

I haven't seen any hard data yet. Just this general assertion that there's a swing.

[carpe diem]

7. click on the link and read the entire post...

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/3/2/13525/13177

[Colobo]

10. They are talking like if Hillary was the victim of...

TYHE VAST OBAMANIAC CONSPIRACY!!! :)

[ClassWarrior]

11. I was going to make a snarky comment about how the media...

...thinks African Americans only vote based on the color of the candidate's skin. But this actually looks like an excellent analysis.

Thanks jg!

NGU.