Leading article: The era of this particular brand of Republicanism is coming to an end
This presidential election, like the midterms last November, is surely the Democrats' to lose
The lacklustre "announcement" by Senator John McCain of Arizona on a TV talk show this week that he will seek the Republican presidential nomination speaks volumes about how difficult it will be for his party to retain the White House in 2008. The quotation marks around "announcement" are deliberate. Mr McCain has unabashedly acted like a candidate for 12 months at least, and his confirmation of that fact to host David Letterman will be followed by a formal campaign launch in April. Such are the ways of the modern American presidential politics, where the maximisation of media exposure is everything.
But the real message of Mr McCain's wan and subdued performance was another. A year ago, unarguably, he was the Republican front runner, no longer the outsider of 2000 but the candidate of the party establishment. These are absurdly early days in the 2008 campaign proper, but already there is a sense that Mr McCain cannot win. In most respects, he is an admirable politician, high minded and with the courage to take on prevailing party orthodoxy if he believes it is wrong. But, the whispering runs, he is too old, too distrusted by Christian conservatives, and too supportive of the ever more unpopular war in Iraq.
However, each of the major Republican candidates, actual or potential, has drawbacks. Rudolph Giuliani now seems the party favourite, but his liberal social views on abortion and gay rights are equally suspect to right-wing activists who play such an important role in the primaries. The digging, meanwhile, has barely started into his colourful personal and business background. Mitt Romney, the polished former governor of Massachusetts and the third so-called "top tier" Republican challenger, is busy wrapping himself in conservative colours, but the sincerity of his conversion raises as many doubts as his Mormon background. In short, the religious right is unhappy with what is on offer. Waiting in the wings is the former Speaker Newt Gingrich. Mr Gingrich is an exceedingly clever fellow. Alas, his bombastic, red-blooded style and his proneness to gaffes surely make him unelectable in a general election.
But there are deeper problems for Republicans, revolving around policies as well as personalities. Barring some devastating terrorist attack, the main issues in 2008 will not be national security and terrorism, but bread-and-butter domestic concerns over health care, job security, and the glaring disparities between rich and poor. All these play to Democratic strengths. And then, of course, there's Iraq. .....(more)
The complete piece is at:
http://comment.independent.co.uk/leading_articles/article2323388.ece