LA Times Poll: Insiders favor Clinton, Romney in 2008

[jcrew2001]

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-timespoll4mar04,1,7133574,print.story?coll=la-headlines-nation

The Times Poll, directed by Susan Pinkus, interviewed 313 of 386 DNC members and 133 of 165 RNC members from Feb. 13-26. Since the poll attempted to interview current state members of each organization rather than a random sample, there is no margin of error.

Democratic National Committee
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton: 20%
Former Sen. John Edwards: 15%
Sen. Barack Obama: 11%
Former Vice Pres. Al Gore: 10%
Gov. Bill Richardson: 9%
Other candidates: 6%
Don't know/haven't heard: 29%

---
Republican National Committee
Former Gov. Mitt Romney: 20%
Former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani: 14%
Sen. John McCain: 10%
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich: 8%
Other candidates: 12%
Don't know/haven't heard: 36%

It looks likes McCain will lose the primary. He was probably the most formidable to Hillary, but not even repubs like him.

Hillary might have some difficulty against Romney, he can play the alpha male governor angle, but he'll lose on foreign policy.
Hillary might have difficulty vs. Rudy who can play up the 9/11 strong leadership angle. (2 new yorkers facing each other would force the south to secede again)
Edwards can beat Romney on foreign policy and in the South.
Edwards can also beat Rudy in the South and on international/domestic policy.

[BeyondGeography]

1. Might as well pack our bags and go home

:boring:

[jcrew2001]

12. huh

Are u a delegate? if your guy isn't on the list, then maybe you need to get some support for him asap.

[bigdarryl]

2. OH PLEASE!!!! no more B/S polls

[jcrew2001]

4. DNC

These are delegates and party insiders, I think this holds more weight on the primaries.

[DeepModem Mom]

17. How is this a BS poll? DNC and RNC, an actual group of people, were polled.

I post here very often, and sometimes, as a poster, frankly, one feels like a messenger being attacked.

[bigdarryl]

3. it's a BULLSHIT poll because they have Gore in it and he's not running so where does...

that 10% that he got goes.And 28% say they don't know thats a lot of people undecided.

[jcrew2001]

5. mccain

It shows that McCain is weak and most likely won't have the support of the RNC members. He won't get the nomination, it might be close, but he won't get it.

On the Dem side, sure there are 30% undecided, but unless something major happens, i think this doesn't bode well for Obama's chances. Gore will always have support, besides many people want him to run and are anti-Hillary.

[jcrew2001]

26. staff

The DNC and RNC officials who have proclaimed their support will not change their opinions until a winner is declared. These delegates will be working on behalf of the candidates to increase support.

The undecided number is high but accurate. If you're a Clark supporter, may be he has a chance to grab the undecided vote, but those decided will hold firm. The Gore faction are in fact Gore's base and haven't jumped ship yet, they are probably anti-hillary.

30% of the DNC is still undecided means there's lots of time left for Edwards and Obama to pick up delegates.

Its not a BS poll - its very reflective of the primary delegates, not the general voting public.

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

6. Romney makes Bush look like the king of extemporaneous thinking. If it's possible to even further

dumb down from the current WH resident, Romney following Bush would be the ticket. MKJ

[GeorgeGist]

7. The margin of error...

is 29% DNC, 36% RNC.

[jcrew2001]

15. bad news for Hill and McCain

The 29% and 36% is bad news for the supposed front-runners of Hillary and McCain. If Hillary has complete name recognition among DNC members and they still don't fully support her, that is a bad signal - that means that most DNC members are waiting to decide on the alternative.

If McCain can't get more than 10% to commit to him after 8 years of campaigning, then something is wrong with him, i mean for reals.

[snowbear]

8. >> This same idiotic article was aleady on here *** THREE DAYS AGO ***

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3142786

Good greif JCrew -- is this the best you can come up with??

[MaineDem]

10. Actually it was just yesterday

I wonder why the LA Times had the same article two days in a row. I know the one quoted here was published today. Maybe the poll results were added today.

[jcrew2001]

13. don't know

i don't know, i thought this was a new article.

[MaineDem]

14. So did I. n/t

[DeepModem Mom]

22. Sorry -- think I misread! nt

[Clarkie1]

9. Bad news for Clinton and Romney, LOL. nt

The insiders are never right.

[jcrew2001]

11. hillary

I agree that Hillary's chances don't look good. If only 20% of DNC members want Clinton, she's got 100% familiarity, then something is wrong. Maybe people outside the northeast don't like her, but say the 10% of Gore voters go to Edwards, and then most or half of the undecided go to Edwards, then Hillary's in trouble.

Another thing that is good for Edwards is that Dean hates the Clinton people and they hate him, this would likely ripple through for more support for Edwards among the DNC.

This shows that Romney is strong and it will likely be between him and Rudy. I think both would lose to the Dem, but Romney would lose worse. I think Rudy could sap some northeast states, but would lose more southern states.

I'm just shocked at the McCain polling - he's toast, i totally underestimated the loathing that repubs had for McCain. It would be a miracle if he gets the nom.

[NDP]

16. The two leaders were givens. Both represent the Clinton and Bush rotation, since Romney is

the pick of the Bush family for 2008.

Both should be shunned by the public, unless we want the Clintons and Bushes to keep running things.

[Clarkie1]

21. McCain just looks too old.

I know that sounds harsh, but it's the truth. And even if he got the nod his butt-kissing to Bush will ensure that he doesn't win.

[jcrew2001]

27. death star

Old Man McCain's website has a very Darth Vadar feel to it.

He won't get the nomination.

[Jack Rabbit]

18. Four years ago, Lieberman was inevitable

Funny thing happened to Joe on his way to the nomination. It was called primaries. He hasn't won a Democratic primary since 2000.

[jcrew2001]

28. kerry

I don't think lieberman was ahead of Kerry in the DNC poll.

[Jack Rabbit]

30. Lieberman was ahead of Kerry, who was foundering at 7%

All the big Democratic movers and shakers were lining up to back Lieberman.

It looked pretty grim to us anti-war folk.

[jcrew2001]

32. poll

What are the exact poll numbers from the DNC poll 4 years ago?

Didn't Liebs not declare until very late, he waited for Gore. What was Gore's number in that poll, probably very high.

If Liebs was so confident, then why did he skip Iowa, I think you're looking at the wrong poll.

[KingofNewOrleans]

19. Nobody pull over 20%, even among insiders

that's the most interesting thing. Even the frontrunners aren't much in front.

[jcrew2001]

29. but

But the polling of the DNC and RNC is solid, the support won't change like national polls. Each candidate will likely grow their percentage, except Hillary or McCain - they've hit their ceiling and if the undecideds aren't in their corner now, they are looking for an alternative.

[EFerrari]

20. Maybe I should get a new hobby. n/t

[ddeclue]

23. AMP=Another Meaningless Poll.

The only polls that are even moderately relevant at this point are those that:

a) Talk to LIKELY as opposed to REGISTERED Voters.
b) Talk to DEMOCRATIC Voters and not just men on the street or "insiders".
c) Talk to them in EARLY primary states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina - and perhaps California, Michigan and Florida if they move their primaries up.

Primaries are all about building momentum - it doesn't matter what the voters in Hawaii have to say in the Primaries because they are too late. That's why these CNN polls of registered voters from random places just don't matter, nor does this "insider" poll. These are just ways for the press and the insiders to act like their favorites (Hillary and Romney) are the actual favorites when they are not.

In reality Edwards is doing much better than he is being given credit for because of his strong showing in Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina polls of likely voters. Hillary and Obama aren't really the giants the media makes them out to be.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[jcrew2001]

31. Likely voters

This poll is of state DNC and RNC members, most of these people are paid by the DNC and RNC - TRUST me when i say they are likely voters. They are people who are in charge of "getting out the vote" for the primary and general. They work for Chairman Dean.

The 15% for Edwards is solid, as well as for the others, it won't go down. The 9% for Richardson is likely out of the western states. This poll shows how much room to grow each candidate has. It shows that Hillary is at a weak 20% when she should have more. It shows McCain is very weak and likely won't grow.

Edwards 15% will now try to win over the 30% of the undecideds in the DNC. He'll be the compromise candidate between Hillary/Obama.

It shows that Romney has a very good chance of beating Rudy for the nom. I do admire the fact that Romney will win the primary through sheer Force and Money, he's got more determination and focus than the other repukes.

[ddeclue]

36. Sure they are likely voters but they are not the "normal" likely voter

By definition, they are "insiders" with their own axes to grind - they do not represent a scientific sample.

I too would be an insider since I am a committeman and heavily involved in politics in my county and my state.

I'm talking about likely voters who are NOT also regular party members who attend meetings - that's what really matters,

[jcrew2001]

37. dnc staff

I'm saying that the DNC and RNC staff members will be promoting their candidates. Of course they have axes to grind and dislike hillary or mccain. The most passionate primary voters stem from the DNC and RNC staff members, their opinions will ripple through.

Its worrisome for McCain because at a tepid 10% RNC means that he'll have to find supporters in the grassroots, which is less reliable or predictable. He's not well, especially with 20% committed to Romney and Rudy.

If you are going to "get out the vote" in your county, are you going to promote your guy/gal. Hillary's 20% isn't good because it means much of the Dems are waiting for something else, if they don't know her by now.

Edwards is in strong position to pick up the slack and gain more DNC ambassadors.

Also, the Dean people hate the clinton people.

[churchofreality]

24. Edwards can't beat anyone

Thats a fact.

[MaineDem]

25. I wouldn't be so sure.

And welcome to DU.

[NDP]

33. Maybe it's a fact in the world of know-little

[jcrew2001]

34. others

Barack's only won one state election, and clark has won zero elections. Edwards will win the primary.

[Initech]

35. Romney? GAG! Might as well have Bush for another four years.

:puke:

[jcrew2001]

38. if romney wins

If romney wins, his vp will be JEB - yay, ughh.

[Milo_Bloom]

39. When "don't know" beats the front runner, it is MEANINGLESS

Remember, Dean was way outside any margin of error to lock up the nomination in December of 2003.

[jcrew2001]

40. Don't know

That is why this poll is accurate - because it shows there is a large "don't know" category of people that will swing the vote come primary time.

Dean was not ahead among DNC polling, Kerry was - he got the DNC support and won.

Dean polled high because of the unreliable grassroots campaign. Those people abandoned him when push came to shove, or forgot to vote.

This DNC and RNC poll is about the reliable supporters. Hillary has 20% of solid support, Edwards has 15%; Romney has 20% and Rudy at 14% - these are committed voters and ambassadors.

[Milo_Bloom]

41. Completely false

Dean was WELL AHEAD in DNC support and Kerry was nearly dead last, with only Lieberman behind him. The only poll that showed otherwise was the DNC/DLC push poll, but all polls of DNC members showed Dean with a SOLID lead.

These numbers will continue to swing wildly over the next several months and will be nothing but a distant memory in 2008. This "solid support" will be gone and moved onto other candidates of the moment.


Gotta love a poll that counts 62 people as "solid support", after all that is what 20% of the 311 are. However, those 62 will change their votes, just as they did in nearly every single presidential campaign that ever was.

[jcrew2001]

43. lieberman

Well the poll was correct in showing Lieberman behind, even though some very early polls had him leading.

So it was Dean, Edwards, Kerry, Liebs in that order?

Unlike Dean, Hillary won't let the 20% die-hards drop her. But its telling that there are many DNC members not committed to Hillary yet - shows she's not really a strong frontrunner.

Chairman Dean has a lot of power in the DNC so we'll see what happens against the Clinton people.
Hillary might have a ceiling.

Maybe 2004 would have turned out diff if Clark and Joe had campaigned in Iowa, taken votes away from Kerry.

[beagle72]

42. the anti-poll

More reliable than the LA Times poll is the poll where you vote AGAINST candidates who suck...

http://www.yourcandidatesucks.com