Richardson: Race will be over by January.

[Clarkie1]

Updated: 12:17 p.m. AKT March 5, 2007

DES MOINES, Iowa - Democratic presidential candidate Bill Richardson thinks the race for his party's nomination will be all but over by the end of next January after the first four contests.

The Democrats' tentative nominating schedule begins in January, with caucuses in Iowa and then in Nevada. After that are the New Hampshire primary and then South Carolina's.

In an interview with The Associated Press, the New Mexico governor says those four contests will determine "who the president is."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17470124/

[Colobo]

1. That's probably true

With Edwards, Obama or Hillary being the nominee, and him being the first choice for VP.

[Clarkie1]

2. And so it was written as if in wet sand at the water's edge. nt

[Colobo]

3. I'm making my prediction

It's not worth anything, but I just like to make it... :)

[snowbear]

4. Clarkie1 .. you left out a word...

It reads: "Richardson: Dem Race will be over by January"

Leaving out the word DEM makes it sounds like Governor Richardson will be out by January..

Which he won't... Because if the good General doesn't run.. the good General will be President Richardson's Vice President!!

~~~

~~~

[napi21]

5. LOTS will happen between now and January 2008!

I still believe the leaders you see NOW, in BOTH Parties, will destroy each other, and those that will benefit are the ones nobody is paying much attention to now...maybe even some new faces will appear!

All this hand wringing and poll taking in March is just a lot of political fun and doesn't meana thing.

[Skink]

6. Hillary wins Iowa. Barack takes N.H. and Edwards takes SC.

and California a liberal state actually has a voice. Anybody's guess.

[snowbear]

8. My guess is....

Governor Richardson wins Iowa (I think Vilsack, who has been TIGHT with him lately will help him a LOT)
Senator Obama wins New Hampshire
Senator Edwards wins South Carolina
Governor Richardson EASILY wins Nevada

But like you said.. it's ANYONE's guess!! (Although it is kinda fun to guess)

[FrenchieCat]

9. Richardson takes nevada....

and the race isn't over in January....sounds like.

Even if one of the 4 takes California, it still won't be over.

So January is 10 months away. Guess we'll be speculating till then? :shrug:

[Skink]

10. Be nice if the field stayed smaller than last time.

we have to many people qualified to be President.

[snowbear]

11. It will be smaller when Biden, Hillary, & Dodd bow out....

[FrenchieCat]

15. Simply because after Bush, everyone believes they can be President...

however, I do not agree that this is the case.
Just that the standards of the office have been dramatically reduced by El Chimp.

And so the fact that Bush has degraded the gravitas of the entire United States is evident.
Anyone who speaks in fully formed sentences now appears overqualified.:shrug:

[evlbstrd]

7. Al Gore enters the race.

If Gore enters in September or October, he'll have it sewn up.

[frankenforpres]

12. i like this Richardson

i hope that he doesnt change too much when he gets more coverage. right now i plan on voting for him. i like most of the candidates, though.

[snowbear]

13. I love Richardson

He's the only politician (outside of my state) who's ever responded personally to an e-mail I've sent!

It was a couple of years ago.. but believe me you, I SAVED THAT E-MAIL !!!!!

[IndianaGreen]

14. And between January 2008 and the Dem Convention: Weeks of buyer's remorse!

And if the grassroots feels that they were cheated by the candidate preferred by the big money people, then you can add weeks of bitterness to the buyer's remorse.

Who knows what fate may bring?

[Golden Raisin]

16. Or there's another 9/11 (real or manufactured) and

the Neocons/BushCo fascists declare martial law, suspend what's left of the Constitution and suspend elections.

[AtomicKitten]

17. this will be one long-ass primary season

ugh

[bklyncowgirl]

18. Aw c'mon New Jersey moves it's primary to February and now it's all over by January

He's probably right, unfortunately. Well at least all the candidates should still be on the ballot so I can cast my, no doubt, futile protest vote for the candidate of my choice.

Hey, Governor Richardson, that could be you.

[sendero]

19. Who could argue with that..

... he's absolutely correct.

[Ninja Jordan]

20. Definitely a dark horse

[PATRICK]

21. More interesting

Which calculations are going to be critical this time AND will the people's real choice or interests come out?

Hillary can survive even third place in the small states if she shifts to big wins in the very quickly following big states. The others don't have that luxury or the ability to simply knock her out unless she faces a total collapse somewhere in her base. Edwards and Obama have to carry a vigorous momentum, hopefully not running into each for Hillary's benefit- or things could get very strange and will "end up" with Hillary. In retrospect one might be able to say from several strategic perspectives(even LOSING the early states) that January and four small states was the key.

There is a sole difference this time that people might see in relation to 2004. And that might change with entry of a you-know-who or two. The voter bases are more flat and likely more insistent than ever on a "winner"- and not a winner in the institutional kudos, big money sense. It turns them all into a single populist base not divided on the war or much of anything else the candidates care to differ on. That turns it into a charisma/pragmatism match- at this point looking forward- between Edwards and Obama. Should the "contest" not reward this and/or the result not be decisive enough in favor of one or the other, then the base will get second choice. 2004 seems more complicated in comparison and undoubtedly things will become so in the months to come now as well.

We have nothing at all like the entry of Dean or even Clark to restir the system. Before a single vote had been cast Dean rose and fell and Kerry fell and rose. It is conceivable that Hillary could match this by tanking but her organization is more traditionally potent and experienced and already known so that negatives can't do much more than they already have- although anyone is free to shoot themselves in the foot. Obama is also playing the long term caution game in a way not set to disturb Hillary's firm hold on legitimate candidacy. Edwards is more free to build on his experience of doing well in the early states with Kerry not only gone but casting good comparison about choice and consequences on the whole race. That recasting of choice could determine the whole mood of the following states' electorates.

The last time, with bare weeks to go before the election, it was touted that Dean was a shoe-in and Kerry was finished. Kerry's smart and steady upsurge filled the void of the controversial Dean "collapse" which sucked the visibility and the chances from all others. As of today, absent crystal ball, this three way looks pretty solid, so much so that no dark horse looks able to even profit as a broker or also ran. Those still running know the values of patience(or their egos are bigger than their bank accounts) and surprise.

If the MSM is trying to keep it interesting or conservative oriented the constant polling will create the new game of "expectations" where even winning is not enough for the people to even begin convincing the GOP slanted media of its wishes. I expect if Edwards or Obama or some other cannot "smash" expectations they will have their work cut out for them in finally making the point in bigger market states. Hillary can reap the advantage of coming in second almost everywhere with a few wins. This time I think the Democratic voters will have few illusions that this process is automatically going to produce the best and strongest candidate and the desired platform simply because of contest win and spin momentum. I think the people and grass roots are going to work very hard to make this known. Will have to, at least. In this we have a responsibility to democracy itself no single candidate or performance can fill.

[Adelante]

22. Go, Democracy

Don't let the door hit you on the way out.