2008: The Late Entry Strategy? Smart or dumber than dirt?

[Stinky The Clown]

It seems to me there are still a few potential 08 candidates who have not announced. Al Gore, Wes Clark and Newt Gingrich come first to mind. There could well be others that I've missed.

"Run Al, Run!" is an oft-repeated refrain. In fact, I've said it myself more than once.

"How smart is a general who waits until the train has left the station?" is a question that's been posed in one form or another for at least a few months.

If one is confessing an extra-marital affair that can surely be called hypocritical to some religious nutters, can plans for a presidential bid in the future continue to be coyly denied?

In a larger sense, the 'smart money' worries about money. 'Some say' all the 'big' money will be committed if a potential candidate waits too long to announce. Similarly, 'some say' that every A-List strategist and campaign chief will be committed elsewhere, leaving the late comers with the leftovers from the last Prom Queen campaign at the local high school.

In the real world, however, we see some reasonably big names struggling against the rising tide of a few rock stars. Dodd and Biden. Brownback and Huckabee.

And for the love of <insert name of loved object/person/diety here> the race has SURE started waaaaaaaay early this go-round.

So .... circle back to the main question: Is entering the race late smart or dumb?

Is it smarter to try to battle against the rock stars now or to wait until they (pretty much inevitably) beat the shit out of each other?

Is it smarter to wait until some of the campaigns simply fold to get the needed campaign staffers or to battle/bid now for the services of the cream of the crop and waste money by overpaying for services?

Is it smarter to add the cost of an extra year of campaigning to your financial needs or to wait and enter late, thereby saving (tens? scores? of) millions of dollars?

Is it better to battle the rock stars head to head now or to wait until they're bloodied and until the country is sick of them? Will the late entries be seen as fresh faces? Heros? The guys in white hats riding in to save the country?

How do you see the early/late question?

[Redneck Socialist]

1. The primary will be over in February

If you are not in it now (or very soon) it is too late. The money people will already locked up by other candidates.

As much as I wish otherwise, I don't think Al is going to run

[LibDemAlways]

2. In the case of Gingrich it makes no difference because he has

no chance of winning the nomination anyway.

I think it makes the most sense for Gore to wait it out awhile and see what happens. If momentum builds for somebody and that person begins to look inevitable, he can bow out without bowing in. If no clear frontrunner emerges by Fall and the candidates are doing nothing except slinging arrows at each other, he might be just what the party needs - a solid candidate who can bring the party together. I'm hoping he gets into this thing, not only because I think he'd make a terrific President, but because I think he's got the best chance of pulling off a big win.

[Apollo11]

3. Gore is keeping his options open

There is no hurry for Gore to enter the race for 2008.

I think Al Gore is keeping his options open right now, watching how the "pre-season" goes. I don't think he yet knows what he will do.

He is doing a great job raising public awareness about the climate crisis. Winning an Oscar means that even more people will hopefully see An Inconvenient Truth. Gore will testify at a Congressional Hearing on March 21st.

Gore is getting ready to bring out his next book The Assault on Reason - to be published in May. The theme of this book - why we need better decision-making in government - is very timely (whether he runs or not).

Gore is also leading Live Earth with concerts in 7 cities across the globe on 7/7/07 -- all with the aim of raising awareness and pushing for action to address the climate crisis.

Depending on how things pan out, and the reaction to his book, Gore can consider his situation over the summer and announce his decision (or if you prefer - "change his mind") sometime in the fall.

Don't forget that Bill Clinton did not kick-off his campaign until October 1991. But Al Gore already has nationwide respect and name recognition that other wannabees can only wish for!

And by the way - Gore is younger than Hillary, Clark, McCain and Guiliani. I'm not saying that age is the most important factor - but you should be ready to serve for a full 8 years.

Unless and until Gore endorses another candidate (or makes a definite statement about not seeking the nomination for 2008), we have to assume that he is keeping his options open. So it is too soon for those of us who prefer Gore to switch our allegiance.

I'm sure if Gore would enter the race in September or October he would have no problem with raising money and finding good campaign staff. Many of the best people would happily quit other campaigns to go and work for Al Gore.


Let's all find ways to show our support for Al Gore! :patriot:

Read Al's blog: http://blog.algore.com

Help Al Gore lobby Congress: www.algore.com/cards.html

Get ready for Live Earth on 7/7/07: www.liveearth.org

Sign the petitions at www.algore.org and www.draftgore.com

:kick:

[SharonRB]

5. Sounds like you and I are definitely on the same page

[SharonRB]

4. I agree with you 100%

I think Al is the only one who can afford to wait until the fall to jump in. First of all, he's getting tons of publicity without being in the race and it's not costing him a dime. By the time fall comes around, people will be sick and tired of Obama and Hillary already and they will have beaten each other to a pulp.

Al has a lot of people ready to work for him as soon as he jumps in, and I wouldn't be surprised if there are people who are currently working on other campaigns who would jump ship to work for his.

The minute he announces, he's capable of raising a ton of money on-line from small donations, in addition to whatever big money he can count on -- especially from the Hollywood crowd.

I've said it a million times before, and I'll say it again -- Run, Al, run.

Even my father, who used to vote Dem all the time, but voted for Bush in '04, said to me this morning: I think Gore is going to run. That was a real shocker.

[AndyTiedye]

10. Gore May Have Found a Way to Beat the Repiggie Media

Gore is running the most brilliant campaign I have ever seen.
He is going around the Repiggie slime machine to get his message out.

[John Q. Citizen]

9. The Repo base loves Newt. Ask them. I did. They hate Gouliani, they hate

McCain.

They love Newt.

I agree with you that Gore has the best chance for a big win.

[LibDemAlways]

13. Goes to show you what hypocrites the repukes are.

Clinton's cheating was grounds for impeachment. Newt's cheating on wife #2 after he left cancer patient wife number one is ok? He's still their guy? They can and do rationalize anything.

[KingofNewOrleans]

6. Al can get in late because he's a rockstar too--the problem for everyone

The big problem for anyone getting in later (and even for those in now) is the calendar.

Jan 14th--Iowa
Jan 19th--Nevada
Jan 22nd--NH
Jan 29th--SC
Feb 5th--20 states or more, including California, Florida, and even Texas is making noise of moving up

So, if you're a lesser known candidate not only do you have to spend tons of time building your name recognition and winning over supporters in places like Iowa and NH, you've then got to compete in twenty states in two weeks. If you don't have the money, you'll have to have incredible organization and unlike campaigns past, the organization can't leapfrog from state to state, it's gotta be in twenty states.

Actually, the fact is that even for the big campaigns, twenty states on the same day is daunting. There's a real possiblity that the candidates go different directions after the early primaries. It's plausible that four candidates come out of Feb 5th with substantial blocs of delegates (Obama, Hillary, Edwards, and Richardson), without one having a clear majority. Instead of the winnowing effect, you'll have the potential for just the opposite.

[FrenchieCat]

7. 2008: The Late Entry Strategy? Smart or dumber than dirt?

I think neither. It depends why various folks are waiting.

I don't believe that the "money" is all spoken for. If I recall, John Kerry had to mortgage his house right before he won Iowa. Aftewards, he had more money than he knew what to do with. So money is great to susbtain you while waiting for the vote....and certainly closer to the first primary, advertising needs to be purchased, etc...

A lot of the "Big" money (how much is it now, $2,300 per head including children?) gets spent by the candidates as they "wait"......i.e., I'm sure that Hillary and Obama are burning money to raise money, having to jet-set to various locations and pay for staff and all.

In terms of the "Good" campaign people being snatched up, that's relative. What's the definition of good? Bill Clinton had his own team of unknowns and certainly didn't rely on those who had a national track record to run his campaign. I think that "Good" is not the same as "established status quo".

I believe that Clark and Hagel have/are waiting for different reasons than say, an Al Gore.
Both Clark and Hagel are underdogs who will most likely not get the type of coverage that the media blessed frontrunners have gotten even once they get in. So there is no reason for them to jump in only to get ignored a la Brownback/Biden/Dodd. What good does it serve? None that I can see.

Also, the longer you are in, the more dirt "they" will throw at you or/and the longer you will be ignored.

I think that we on the Internet really need to stay away from the temptation of thinking and reacting exactly as the corporate media dictates. World events are not controlled or shaped by man alone. Bush believed this when he went into Iraq; that he could control the outcome......but he couldn't. To believe that everything as it is happening now is going to remain exactly as it is naive and time and time again that theory has been proven incorrect.

The last thing is that running for President is no small task and is and should be a serious matter. Sure for the independently wealthy, it may simply be an expensive passtime, but for those who do not earn their money on the taxpayer's dime (where certain expenses can be justified to the office rather than to the campaign), do not have a personal fortune, and have no guarantee that the media will even assign a reporter for press coverage, it has to be a step taken in earnesty and with lots of forethought.

That being said, I look forward to those who will be entering the race, and I will be resigned that "it wasn't meant to be" for those who choose not to turn their lives upside down seeking the highest office in the land under great odds.

PS. I understand that Wes Clark has been busy attempting to hush some who have been doing saber rattling against Iran and to encourage diplomacy. It appears that he is experiencing a bit of success on that front (as the Iran debate has been tempered recently-remember the "Iran made weapons" that they "found" just a few short weeks ago?).... and so, even without a platform from which to speak, he continues to serve his country. He understands that he will not get credit for stopping something that never happened, and so I believe that this quest of his is done only as a service to the public good.....without pay. I Hope some will, at least, appreciate this move on his part as opposed to looking down at him for not complying with the CW pundit's order as to what protocol must be followed in order to be let into the dance.

[Zynx]

8. Gore can wait because he has a ton of money and name recognition

Clark isn't running. I wish people would get over it.

Newt is only being mentioned because the crop of Republican candidates is weak. Of course, Newt is also weak.

[FrenchieCat]

11. Is Hagel running?

since you are so good at knowing what's up.

[KingofNewOrleans]

12. Supposedly he tells all on Monday--eom

[Adelante]

14. I think it is smart to stay out of this freak show

for as long as possible, which is a couple more months. There was no good reason for this all to begin as early as it has begun. It's a waste in every possible way.

[Czolgosz]

15. Gore is the only one with the name recognition and the funding base to wait until after Memorial Day

before jumping into the race for one of the major party nominations and still have any chance of winning.

Gingrich and Clark might get into the race to shape the debate (or in Gingrich's case, perhaps to sell some books and boost his lecture fee), but they won't be running to win unless they get in before Memorial Day.

Hagel might be running as an independent or unity candidate, in which case he is not bound by the party primary timetable.

Frankly, I doubt that Gore, Clark, Hagel, or Gingrich will run, but I remain hopeful that Clark might still have a place on an Edwards/Clark or an Obama/Clark ticket.

[Tom Rinaldo]

16. That's conventional wisdom all right

And this time conventional wisdom a almost a year out from the primaries may be right, but it has frequently been wrong before. In the past front runners tend to burn out, partially because they spend too much time in the glare of the spotlight with a target painted on their back. Obama may be a great candidate, but though he seems fresh and new now some of that aspect of his appeal will be dulled by January. Edwards is running hard on issues, but for better or worse the fresh young aspect of his appeal is no longer what it used to be either. And I have my doubts how well Hillary Clinton will weather being viewed as just one of the front runners, and not the Democratic heir apparent to the throne, half a year further into this contest.

America is facing huge challanges. Those paying close attention to the 2008 race right now are mostly political horse race junkies and celebrity watchers. We may be on the brink of war with Iran. A whole lot can change between now and the summer.

[Czolgosz]

17. True, much can happen in the next 10 months. If the Repubs finally tire of war, Hagel might look

more electable, especially if the Repubs realize that a pro-escalation candidate cannot win in the general election.

But two things that makes this election different are the manner in which it is being front-loaded and the ever-increasing cost.

As far as the front-loading goes, the race will be DONE by February 6 at the absolute latest and may very well be over soon after mid-January.

As far as the cost goes, Hillary has budgeted to spend more in Iowa alone than any candidate has previously spent on the whole primary. Obama and Edwards are also on pace to raise more than than any primary candidate has ever raised in the history of American politics. I love Dennis Kucinich, but I'm not seeing this process working out in a way that makes room for a Kucinich candidacy to catch fire and pull off an upset.

I bet we see a few candidates drop out before Memorial Day (probably Biden and maybe Dodd who aren't leading even in their home states where the voters know them best, maybe Richardson who has raised very little in the way of campaign funds and who is polling in the cellar even in neighboring state Nevada, a caucus which Ricardson was supposed to win because of his proximity).

[Dr Fate]

18. It's smart if $$$$$ & name recog. wont be an issue. n/t

n/t

[IndianaGreen]

19. Al Gore is the only one that can pull a late entry

While DUers have made good arguments, pro and con, a late entry into the Presidential race, a late entrant will be facing a situation in which all the big money and donors would already been committed to the top-tier candidates. Only Al Gore would have a chance to overcome the money gap, and even Gore may not be able to overcome it.