Will Hagel be the one who knocks Rudy, Mitt & McCain off the GOP top spot?

[snowbear]

Tweety has him on Monday (evidently following his announcement) and he thinks that Hagel has the perfect mix R's are looking for-

He's against Bush's Iraq plan, and he's extremely conservative.



He has the Veteran status that McCain has..

And the rightie values that Rudy doesn't have..




They want someone with crossover appeal, and according to SurveyUSA (quoted in Wikipedia):

According to a SurveyUSA poll, Hagel has a 10% higher approval rating among Nebraska Democrats than Republicans

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_Hagel

What would prevent him from gaining the GOP frontrunner status?

[muntrv]

1. Yes. While he's pissed off the neo-cons with his criticism of the Iraq war,

people forget that he is quite the social conservative.

[Auggie]

2. He certainly looks the part. And people vote looks...

[MADem]

3. YES. I have been saying this for months.

Hagel APPEALS. He's "manly" with a good head of hair, which the GOP like, he's CONSERVATIVE, he is a REAL "straight talker," and he speaks plainly and directly.

What could stop him? Huckabee. Lack of funding. His temper. A skeleton in his closet (though he might be able to 'plain talk' his way out of that--after all, his dysfunctional upbringing is well known).

Ignore the asshole in the dress with his third wife, pay no attention to the Mormon, forget the aged POW with the reconstructed jaw--Hagel and Huckabee are the ones to look out for.

If they can get money, they are off to the races.

[EFerrari]

8. I don't think he's under control enough for the Borg.

And for us, that's a good thing if they sabotage him and go with someone less appealing. :shrug:

[Rock_Garden]

11. That's exactly right, and you sure made me laugh! n/t

[HappyWeasel]

15. Yes... he is too finicky for the hive mind... he may have developed a celluar level

resistance that makes it harder for him to be absorbed.

[EFerrari]

20. LOL!

:rofl:

[EFerrari]

19. Good!

:)

[MADem]

The Borg, though, is showing signs of shoving its head up its own ass.

If the GOP bolt and revolt, they aren't coming to us if they have a 'manly man' option like Chuck Hagel.

And Huckabee shows signs of Borgish lockstep. That is a key reason why I think the odds for him are about equal to Hagel, even though "Huckabee" is a bumpkinesque name for a president. Of course, who ever thought we'd elect not one, but two assholes named Bush without too too much snickering?

[EFerrari]

18. Well, we never did elect Junior.

I feel very hopeful for 2008.

[MADem]

22. That's entirely true, that. NT

[EFerrari]

25. I don't know a thing about Huckabee. I guess I better find out.

Hagel I know from his voting machine problem.

[MADem]

31. Both have a great deal of 'charm' in their own ways.

Huckabee comes off as a REAL folksy, sincere charmer. He was a fatty who got fit, he's like a kindly uncle, he has a nice speaking voice, an engaging manner, he wrote a popular book, he was a governor, he knows how to sell himself. He will win the ENTIRE South, if he doesn't step on his crank and say something stupid. The challenge would be to win the west....

I wouldn't write either one of them off. The Three Stooges currently at the top of the GOP lists are pushovers. Hagel and Huckabee, though, if they break out, will excite the party--they'll see them as Great White Hopes, frankly.

With the 24 hour news cycle, that old "name recognition" thing isn't as important as it used to be. Look at Obama--the nation has gone from WHO???? to that snarky Osama/Hussein bullshit (a lesson that any publicity is good publicity, as that backfired big time) to people knowing he smoked (ooh), he's on the patch (aaah!) to knowing his wife's name. He packs fundraisers, he gets lots of media play. And there's a LONG way to go until the election.

Hagel or Huckabee, with the right campaign, could do the same thing.

[EFerrari]

32. Now I remember him. Is he BFEE or a loose cannon?

That's (in my humble if paranoid opinion,lol) what will decide it this round. They've taken a huge hit where they thought they'd have a walk in the park. The hive is regrouping.

We have a very good shot in 08 if the Dem leadership can avoid being made responsible for Iraq. It was lost long before they got power. They really, really need a way to say that, yesterday.

[MADem]

33. Both, actually, in a way. But he hides it well. He'd hook up with the

Monkeycrowd if he hasn't already--after all, he hates Bill Clinton. NT

[AtomicKitten]

4. he comes "equipped"

http://www.commondreams.org/views03/0131-01.htm

[EFerrari]

5. They should run him but my bet is that they won't because

he's not an insider.

He would be an appealing candidate and I hope he doesn't get the nomination.

[eleny]

6. I think he's tough enough to go after them

He's so right winger and conservative on the social issues that he'll hit Rudy G where he's most vulnerable. Then he can go after the rest one bowling pin at a time.

[MADem]

21. "What do you believe? This is a TOUGH business"--here he is, in action

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZCeUhLkGto

Contrast the timbre of his voice with that of the Monkey. Or Rudy. Or McCain. Or Romney.

The guy is swimming in testosterone compared to those choirboys. He's speaking forcefully, plainly, reasonably, simply.

People vote viscerally sometimes...especially not-so-swift people who actually think the GOP has a workable agenda.

[eleny]

34. You've got that right

I have a winger friend. We worked together for over 20 years. When she'd talk about governors of our state, she'd say how this one or that "looked" like a governor. I truly believe that some people will go ga-ga over Hagel, his personality and macho good looks. Yes, the conservative women I know even think W is handsome.

Hagel's arch conservative social positions will reel in the fundies. I think many who are turning on the war will find him a comfortable fit. All he has to do is get his position on the war phrased right and they'll flock to him. This far out, he has plenty of time to work on raising money. He's a better fit than any of the other candidates except the bland Brownback and lackluster Huckabee.

Unless the networks go against him hard, he'll have guys who can relate to him and even female fan clubs will crop up.

[izzie]

7. Harder to beat for a Dem. but a good man.

--

[snowbear]

9. Well, it's just my opinion, but...

As far as major crossover appeal --- as well as someone who can kick Hagel's ass in the debates -- I'm hoping still holding out for...



-- --

[MADem]

24. I dunno. I kind of get the feeling he might be happier in a larger scale,

hugely important, regional Ambassador-type role. Sort of like what Clinton did with ADM Howe, only much bigger, much more entrenched, something with opportunities for diplomacy that also requires a tactical military mind. The way the Monkey has screwed up the world, we'll need a few of those, I think.

But who knows? It's early yet. He has time yet to jump in if he wants to.

Is he fundraising at all? If not, I'd expect to see him in the cabinet. Or an ambassadorship. Assuming he stumps for the nominee, of course.

[pdxmike]

10. in a word-- no.

There is absolutely no way that Hagel can pull this off. He has been consistently and vocally been "off the reservation" when it comes to Iraq. The GOP does not reward that type of behaviour. Also, just who is his constituency?
Hagel is an old style conservative(in a good way). His type is just about extinct in the current GOP.

[snowbear]

12. So you think that after their butt-whooping last November...

..as well as the national polls showing support for the war and how it's been handled at on all time low (even on their side) -- that Hagel wouldn't be the knight in shining armor they're looking for.

I dunno..

[HappyWeasel]

13. No party learns that fast.

Also, Hagel has almost no support right now and the GOP would never nominate from the second or third tier.

[MADem]

17. They just don't KNOW him....YET. Once they do, expect his numbers to move way up.

He might even swipe a small slice of the conservative (Catholic) Democratic vote, too; the ones that hold their noses when voting for the pro-choice candidates.

[Virginia Dare]

14. Hagel is too intellectual for the mainstream Repukies...

he's not "folksy" enough, you wouldn't want to "sit down and have a beer with him". And he's far to conservative for the mainstream Democrats.

[HappyWeasel]

16. Yeah, but you are not trying to get the other parties votes.

I mean, with the war, the hive mind is the most pickiest, even more than on abortion.

[Colobo]

23. He would be a tough candidate to beat

In fact, he's probably the best candidate the GOP has to offer.

[HappyWeasel]

27. he can...

but he won't.

[Stinky The Clown]

26. I think he'll jump to the top based on newbie status and name recognition

He'll hten fall back to mere mortal status and slug it out with the rest of them in the trenches.

The hard core GOP base will wind up resenting his antiwar stance, making a primary win difficult.

Were he to get thru the primaries, I suspect the Dems would find him waaaaaaaay too conservative.

[HappyWeasel]

28. well... only 10% of either party will betray their party.

but most of the indies,will find him too reactionary.

[blm]

29. Yes - several of us here at DU have been saying so for over a year now.

Every move Hagel has made the last two years has completely stolen the maverick label from McCain and he will attract the Independents.

He comes off the best on TV out of ALL the GOP hopefuls and most of the Dem ones, too, unfortunately.

[Stinky The Clown]

30. Yanno ......

.... you're right on the teevee thing. Sad to say, but he does.

Beauty is always in the eye of the beholder, so there'll be lots of people who imagine this not to be the case, but I agree with you. He's at the top of the 'Presidential Hopefuls' telegenic scale

[Kahuna]

36. Well, I for one do think he's hot., He's a gorgeous, manly man..

And he comes across as genuine, unlike McVane who is a panderer.

[Kahuna]

35. I'd rather run against their best than their worst. The truth is we could

end up with a repuke in '08. There's always that chance. If a repuke wins, please let it be someone that's not as sneaky and dishonest as the last four repukes. PLEASE!!! I don't think we could take another one of that variety like Rudy or McVane. :scared:

[rep the dems]

37. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Hagel will not run in 2008.

Just a feeling I have.

[Warren DeMontague]

38. Nah. I bet they go full-tilt Jesus crazy and nominate Brownback. nt

[nevergiveup]

39. The way he has slapped

Chimpy around the last couple of years on the war will not endure him to the base. I can't imagine the Repubs rewarding him with the nomination. I do ,however, think he would be tough to beat in a national election. He is a made for TV candidate. If he would moderate his conservative social views just a tad he would probably be unbeatable.

[elizm]

40. I think he will be hard to beat...

He will get the moderates/independents that McCain has lost. Although he won't have the support of the Republican machine (as McCain didn't in 2000) I think a lot of people would go with him because there are those who don't like to see one party control Congress and the White House. Just my thoughts..

[saltpoint]

41. Possible. But at this point, given the dramatic flaws in the GOP candidates,

I'm thinking the Iowa caucus will in in a scoreless tie.

None of these Repukes are all that ideologically attractive to their base -- there's a fly in the ointment to every one of them.

If the fundie nutbags unite behind, say, Brownback, Brownback could pull off a stunning win in Iowa. I think he gets ground down the following week in New Hampshire, though, and Hagel could be the guy to do most of the grinding.

[JNelson6563]

42. He would be tough

cause he comes off as saner than most of the GOP line-up. Also more moderate so the wingers won't like him.

He'd sure throw a monkey-wrench into the GOP primaries. :toast:

Julie

[TwilightGardener]

43. He is a fine-looking man, with a manly persona (combat vet and all)

--Tucker Carlson has a man-crush on him, called him the Gary Cooper of the GOP. But can he compete with Fred Thompson for TV appeal?

[Leilani]

44. Hagel is less of a concern than Fred Thompson

There is a growing movement to draft Thompson, & supposedly he's open to the idea.

[TwilightGardener]

45. So I've heard--no actors, please--we need a REAL president this time!

[Leilani]

46. The point is that he's more of a threat

Republicans don't like Hagel, but they do like Thompson.

If nominated, Thompson is better known nationwide than Hagel.

Also, Thompson is better on his feet than Hagel. He's very smart & quite funny.

[TwilightGardener]

47. I agree with you in terms of

Thompson garnering more support--definitely more likely to get the nom, although if he's so great, why is he only being drafted now? I suspect he's got some family issues/skeletons that has kept him out of the running--is that why he left the Senate for Hollywood?

[MissMarple]

48. That's my guess. This is so Rovian.

My Rovedar is is going from a beep.....beeep...beeep to a beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep.