"The Surge is Succeeding," says Kagan in WaPo

[Sparkly]

Some observers are reporting the shift. Iraqi bloggers Mohammed and Omar Fadhil, widely respected for their straight talk, say that "early signs are encouraging." The first impact of the "surge," they write, was psychological. Both friends and foes in Iraq had been convinced, in no small part by the American media, that the United States was preparing to pull out. When the opposite occurred, this alone shifted the dynamic.

As the Fadhils report, "Commanders and lieutenants of various militant groups abandoned their positions in Baghdad and in some cases fled the country." The most prominent leader to go into hiding has been Moqtada al-Sadr. His Mahdi Army has been instructed to avoid clashes with American and Iraqi forces, even as coalition forces begin to establish themselves in the once off-limits Sadr City.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/09/AR2007030901839.html

First, who are the Fadhils? Well, their blog includes links to Lucianne, Rightwing News, Michelle Malkin, "Stop the ACLU," and more of the same flavor, so that tells you something...
http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/

Second, Al Sadr's militia "was instructed to avoid clashes" by Al Sadr. The recent suicide bombing in Sadr City, however, may cause him to return to increase the fighting.

Third, the problem is not about having US forces "hold" areas because a) they can't be "held" forever and b) fighting factions can wait or move elsewhere.

But, courtesy of the Washington Post presenting "both sides" of the truth, rightwingers now have their dose of phony talking points: the surge is working, and the media just doesn't want to report it. :eyes:

[saltpoint]

1. Kagan's & Kristol's smarmy blathering aside, I see no chance of success for

the "surge."

I don't think Petraeus thinks it's a good plan either, and has likely said so in private.

Do Republicans up for re-election in 08 think the next several months will see a turnaround in Iraq in U.S. fortunes -- and their political fortunes? I bet they don't.

A turnaround is not out of the question, but the question itself increasingly becomes George Bush's incompetence as Commander in Chief. This is his war, all of it, completely, and he's blown it big time.

[Gman]

2. Probably being paid more than just a stipend

with links like that it has no credibility.

[Eric J in MN]

3. Also, Joe Lieberman is "The Last Honest Man."

I learned that from Robert Kagan (sarcasm):
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/04/AR2006080401384.html

[izzie]

4. My thought are that they just go underground or wait.

It seems to be how these wars are fought. Bush's team will say it is working even as every ones death count goes up. Some times the best army does not win and that comes from history.

[TheCowsCameHome]

9. Wouldn't you? Once the "surge" ends, they'll come right back

[izzie]

10. Sure would. These people have brains.

And I am not so sure about the WH any more. After all they have helped bin Larden more than any one. Every Muslin country in the world now think he is a hero to take on this country that is taking over a Muslin country or should I say countries? Just look at a map of the Middle East and see our foot prints and when not ours other imperial countries. Even the Ottoman's were not cake and honey to have around for these people. People seem to like to run their own country in their own way even if our little God in the WH thinks he knows best.:think: :think: :think:

[The Count]

5. You cannot fool all the people all the time. Elevating RW bloggers to MSM

sources served them well in the lynching of Dam Rather (good way to put the blame on bloggers too - never mind they were mouthpiece for the administration).. But the war is kinda big and public and it takes a hell of a lot of lipstick to make this pig look good. I hope you notice that these were the exact words Idiot Boy said in his last press conference - we don't know anymore who is the source and who is the mouthpiece - but this is another coordinated message planted in the now discredited WaPo.

[Bob3]

6. and barely is the ink dry on this fishwrap

the news comes through on another car bomb that killed 31 (at last count) pilgrims.

tripe.

[Cassandra]

7. The comments section is pretty funny...

and predictable. The wingnuts are grasping at straws and those who know the score know that Kagan is a delusional wingnut.

[Richard Steele]

8. If the Fadhilds have such detailed info on militant group commanders, why don't they give it to us?

Apparently they not only know where these alleged "Commanders
and lieutenants of various militant groups" had set up positions,
but they are also privy to their travel itineraries.

You'd think such loyal supporters of the US occupation would be
giving this valuable info to our Military Intelligence officers,
instead of just bloviating about it on the nets.

If they weren't completely full of shit, that is....

[Warren Stupidity]

11. third: madhi army not invovled in insurgency.

The shiite militias, including the Mahdi Army, have not been principle actors in the SUNNI DOMINATED insurgency. Every mention of some purported cease fire by shiite factions is dubious at best.

But if the escalation is succeeding I demand to know what the goals are, what the metrics are, when success can be stated as having occurred. What is the mission?

[Avalux]

12. LOL! Kagan's PNAC buddy Fred Kagan came up with the surge plan - of course he'd be the cheerleader!

I am a bit surprised they didn't even wait until all the additional troops are there before cranking up the propaganda machine.

[applegrove]

13. The problem is the long term. US doesn't have the manpower to keep

such high numbers in Baghdad.

[Jack Rabbit]

14. The Washington Post editorial page is FoxNews in print

There are two ways to tell if a neoconservative is lying:

1. His lips are moving; or
2. There's verbage beneath his by-line.

Mr. Kagan has bee calling the Iraq war a success all along regardless of circumstances. Why should we believe him now?

[FVZA_Colonel]

15. I cannot claim to be an expert on military strategy.

But it seems that the number of public announcements that were made about the Surge prior to its commencement would be prohibitive to its success, as they in effect seemed to have given the insurgent groups enough time to dissolve away into the general population, to emerge to launch either the occasional major strike or engage in minor battles in order to maintain presence, until such a time as the Surge is effectively "over," at which point they would emerge in relatively full force.

[Rydz777]

16. Would you buy a used car from Kagan?

Nobody in this administration has ever defined what success is supposed to mean. So meeting "success" is whatever they claim at any time of their choice. Sometimes I think Bush plans to keep this thing going until he leaves office and then dump the mess onto his successor. But then sometimes I think he'll get out of Iraq before the next election to try to save the wreckage of the Republic Party. Probably there is no plan, nothing rational going on there, just winging along blindly as before.