Front-loaded primary day forces campaigns to reconsider every aspect of strategy

[DeepModem Mom]

NYT: Early Primary Rush Upends ’08 Campaign Plans
By ADAM NAGOURNEY
Published: March 12, 2007

WASHINGTON, March 9 — The trickle of states moving their 2008 presidential primaries to Feb. 5 has turned into an avalanche, forcing all the presidential campaigns to reconsider every aspect of their nominating strategy — where to compete, how to spend money, when to start television advertising — as they gird for the prospect of a 20-state national primary day....

***

Mr. McCain, remarking on the difference from the last time he ran for president, suggested that the front-loaded primary day was not a good development. “I don’t think there’s enough exposure of the candidates the way that there used to be, having to go state by state by state over a long period of time,” he said.

For the most part, the candidates and their aides cannot quite figure out what all this turmoil means for them. The changes, which are shaping up to be the most substantial alteration ever to a campaign calendar in a single election cycle, have heightened the volatility of the most wide-open presidential race in 50 years, one with large and well-financed fields of contenders.

Aides to the candidates said they were debating whether the changes would mean that the nominations would effectively be settled on Feb. 5, by which point easily 50 percent of the delegates are likely to have been chosen, or whether a few strong candidates would divide the Feb. 5 take, forcing the campaign to stretch on for months. That could, oddly enough, make those fewer states sticking to later primaries vital players in the election cycle.

The changes are forcing candidates to decide whether Iowa and New Hampshire, two states with contests before Feb. 5, will become more influential as contenders look for early victories to give them momentum. And with as many as 23 states voting on a single day — more states than are typically considered competitive in a general election — candidates must decide which ones to ignore, given the demands on their time and bank accounts....

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/12/us/politics/12primary.html?hp

[KingofNewOrleans]

1. I've given it some thought for the Dems

And it does seem quite plausible that four candidates come out of Mega-Tuesday with substantial blocs of delgates and that none seem a given to get 50%. Even the candidates with the most money will have to prioritize or choose their best states for Mega-Tuesday.

[madfloridian]

2. Well, here's the attitude of Florida...

Governor Dean called Gelber about moving up into January, said the party had delegate penalties already in existence that he would have to enforce.

Gelber told him he had no loyalty to the DNC. That the delegates did not matter.

The state party warned Gelber, but he argued with them as well. He said he answered only to his constituents. Ok, fine. So toss all the rules out the window.

I don't want Florida involved until the voting is straightened out here.

[CK_John]

3. This creates a perfect opening for an IND party. n/t