New Polling Data in Democratic Primary

[Tellurian]

Hillary exceeds ALL comers. Great showing after Selma..

3/10/2007

Re: New Polling Data In Democratic Primary

In the first national poll taken completely after the speeches in Selma, Hillary Clinton is the leading candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination with 38% of the vote of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents, to 21% for Barack Obama, 14% for Al Gore and 10% for John Edwards, according to a just released AP/Ipsos poll of over 1000 Americans released today. The poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday. The 17 point margin represents a tic up from two polls that had the margin at 12%.

In the AP/Ipsos poll, Clinton has more of the vote than the next two Democratic candidates combined. In addition, according to the poll, Clinton leads her closest Democratic competitor among voters who say honesty, strong character, compassion, intelligence and stance on issues matter most.

Honesty was listed as the most important character trait by 41 percent of voters (open-ended). In all, 55 percent said honesty, integrity and other values of character were most important, compared with one-third who said stance on issues is most important.

In the March 7 Gallup poll, (Taken March 2-4), Clinton leads Obama 44-27 in the race without Al Gore (Edwards is at 10%), and leads 36-22 in the race with Gore (Gore has 18 percent and Obama 22 percent). This was taken right after the Oscars. In the head-to-head horserace, Clinton leads Obama 56 percent to 36 percent.

The March 3 Newsweek poll had similar findings: Clinton leads Obama 52-38 in the head-to-head primary.

An NBC/WSJ poll taken last weekend (March 2-5) had the race slightly closer at 40-28 without Gore in the race, and an ABC/Washington Post poll taken before that also had a 12-point margin with Gore in and a larger margin with Gore out.

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/release/view/?id=1384

[Tellurian]

1. Yep, our girl is outpacing the guys by healthy margins..

Go Hillary!

[Lost-in-FL]

3. I guess Nader will be running

:banghead: He already made the threat that if she gets nominated, he will run.

[Jackpine Radical]

13. Given the disarray of the Pubbies,

Nader might pull almost as many votes from them as from Hill this time if he actually does it. Goddam sleazeball.

[Learn2Swim]

51. do you think you could

pull back on the cheerleading, just a tad? Sometimes your posts give me a mean gag reflex.

It's early. Dount count your chickens ;-)

[EVDebs]

2. Republicans are saying 'Hilary' in this poll IMHO. Edwards is who R's fearthemost

[Tellurian]

4. I wouldn't believe a Republican if he said the Pope's a Catholic! nm

[EVDebs]

5. Edwards, official frontrunner in Iowa

http://iowaprogress.com/2007/02/25/john-edwards-iowas-official-frontrunner/

[Tellurian]

9. Edwards needs Iowa to stay in the game..

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/10/us/politics/10edwards.html?hp

[NDP]

26. Hillary needs Iowa. Obama is the only one who can come in second or third in the first

4 primaries and maintain legitimacy. If Hillary doesn't win Iowa, she's toast.

[EVDebs]

45. Agreed ! At least Edwards has a plan for healthcare and Iraq is self-evident

as an unsustainable military action. Calm, cool, collected, and he's already poked a finger in Ann Coulter's eye ! On to Denver in '08 !

[Learn2Swim]

46. good to see someone

using their heads... This is 100% spot on. Without Iowa, the rats start jumping ship in the HRC camp.

My theory- by the time thanksgiving rolls around, HC will have broadly lost her lead and will try to buy the pot in Iowa to prove she's still the frontrunner. I bet she'll outspend Edwards in Iowa 3:1 and Obama 4:1 with the result that she wins with a bare plurality of around, say 34%, that's when the wheels come off her entire campaign...her staff will be parachuting out of the plane on their way to South Carolina.

[Tellurian]

47. She will. As the public gets educated to the threat of the VRW..

supreme takeover of our country to a dictatorship, they will figure it out on their own.

[nevergiveup]

6. Obama

is right where he needs to be. If Gore does not enter the race I believe Obama will overtake Hillary late in the summer and never look back. If Gore enters the race all bets are off.

[illinoisprogressive]

10. i've been saying the same thing. the way the polling looks he should overtake by summer

[Tellurian]

12. And what criteria are you using leading you to that assumption?

[papau]

7. Hillary is doing great - now if she'd just endorse "Medicare for all" :-)

:-)

[illinoisprogressive]

8. alot of polls are showing her sliding. yes! by summer she will be in 4th.

[Tellurian]

11. I haven't see the polls you speak of showing Hillary sliding..

can you post a few recent links?

[SaveElmer]

14. ...

[Tellurian]

16. (Ritz) Crackers!

:rofl:

[job777]

43. Holding on

Yes I don't see her being able to sustain the lead. Over for her by the fall.

[Tellurian]

48. Agreed- I see her increasing her lead as..

the country comes to grips with the real threat of another VRW presidency.

[Ninja Jordan]

15. Actually she is hemorrhaging badly. She's falling below 40% now.

14% for Gore? He isn't even a candidate. Might as well give that 14% to Obama.

[Tellurian]

17. Even if you gave it to Obama, he's still behind! nm

[Ninja Jordan]

19. By a healthy 2%. I don't want Obama ahead now.

Being the frontrunner a year before the first primary isn't a badge of honor IMO.

[Tellurian]

22. Well, it would be OK, if it was Obama, though.. right?

Hillary is a household name. There isn't anything the public doesn't know about her. Hillary and Bill are like family.
They gave us Peace and Prosperity for 8 short years. I'm looking forward to at least 8 more of the same. They have been sorely missed.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

37. She has nearly 100% name ID--Obama is not well known

Despite this, Obama has been consistently ahead of her in Iowa (where Hillary, despite her 99% name ID, has regularly been 3rd or 4th...) and is close in New Hampshire. Once Obama gets his name ID higher he stands a good chance of overhauling Hillary Clinton in the meaningless national polls.

It is sad that Hillary Clinton's candidacy chiefly revolves not around any message or vision but simply around who she married. How compelling...

[Tellurian]

39. Maybe..but

If you read this post, I presented facts that most people aren't even considering could affect the outcome of the election. And I didn't mention her husband once. Although, he looms large overall. Hillary has done a fine job on her own and has every reason to be proud of her accomplishments.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3158559&mesg_id=3158824

[Colobo]

18. This woman wins the nomination

And I might stay home on Election Day.

[Tellurian]

20. Why, would you prefer another GOp administration?

Not good, Katzenkavalier.. Obama has plenty of time left for another run.

[Ninja Jordan]

21. Would you prefer another Republican Congress? Because that's what a Hillary nomination gives you.

[Tellurian]

23. The Democrats are gonna rule the road..

run over every Republican in sight for Congressional Seats in the biggest showdown DC has ever seen. The Top tier of Republicans are outing themselves just trying to find a suitable presidential candidate in the General.

The Party of family values has run out of road. Americans are ready for a clean sweep throughout the country.
Then we'll try to forget they ever existed.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

35. Giuliani is ahead of our candidates

If he wins the nomination we will have a tough battle on our hands. That is why it is important to nominate a strong, principled candidate. Too many people on our side are becoming too optimistic about 2008. The Republicans aren't dead. Giuliani and even McCain would be competitive against any Democratic candidate and would be the favorite if we nominated a weak candidate.

[Tellurian]

38. Our biggest mistake would be underestimating the opposition..

However, the trio of Top Republic candidates are having their own problems within.. passing muster in their own party. The Evangelicals aren't going to endorse Guilaini, McCain, or Romney.

And I agree, we have to remember what we've been through with Gore and Kerry. We just can't assume it's going to be clear sailing for whoever gets the nomination. Even if a Dem is elected, it won't be over until the Inauguration. It's a long time to hold your breath.

[SaveElmer]

25. Do you have ANY evidence...

To back this up...?

Having Hillary Clinton come into Virginia here to campaign for Jim Webb obviously didn't hurt his campaign...and in fact helped it...

Do you have any polling data at all that would show anything like the assertion you are making...?

Or are you simply repeating the same tired old Hillary talking points that have evolved in the DU bubble?!

[Ninja Jordan]

34. Yeah, it's called the '94 midterms

Hillary and her botched healthcare plan was the best thing to happen to GOP fundraising in a long time.

[Colobo]

27. Tellurian, I admire your passion

You are very passionate about Hillary, and that's cool. It's good to have a candidate you completely identify with.

It happens that I'm as passionate abour Obama as you are about Hillary, and for very specific reasons. Very utopic personal ones, in fact, and probably very different from your reasons for supporting Hillary, which, by the way, would be a great president.

The chance for the most powerful nation in the world to give one of her black sons a chance to lead her is something generations of people all over the nation and the continent, have secretly waited for. So many have died without even seeing justice fulfilled in their own lives. Barack Obama has what it takes to be that chosen son. He is one of the most wonderful politicians I've seen, and I'm not the only one who agrees. He personifies what a great future this nation can have and will have, a future in which Americans will finally embrace each other and look past the injustices and inequalities of the past. Obama, in my eyes, is a redeeming character, someone black kids around the nation and the continent will finally look up to and say: "Damn, I can ACTUALLY be president to!". Millions of kids will finally see that their dreams can be more than dreams, and that their skin color is not necessarily a barrier that will keep them out of several positions in their own society.

Tellurian, I want to live to see that, and I honestly think this man can make that happen. The Sharptons, the Jacksons, the Mosleys of the world couldn't, but Obama can. He has what it takes, and I feel is my responsibility with myself, who once also dreamt about being governor of my homeland, Puerto Rico, and had to hear the laughter of my teacher and classmates as she told me "Nobody would ever vote for a black for governor over here, just like Americans will never vote for a black man for president"; it is my responsibility to support this wonderful candidate and man that not only will lead this nation back to prosperous times, but also will finally show our societies and the world that yes, we, the black citizens of America and the Western Hemisphere can and deserve a chance to serve our nations in every level, and that we can do it with dignity and efficiency.

So, please understand. Trust me, Hillary will indeed get my vote, but she will get an aching vote from me. A tired vote. A hopeless vote. A vote that won't be looking to the future with optimism, because yes... Obama might be able to wait 8 years, or maybe by 2016 his chance will be gone, and who knows when another Obama will appear in politics again, and again people will say "He's not ready" and he will have to wait 8 more freaking years...

Please understand. A hug for you, and keep up the good work. You are doing what your candidate needs from you.

[Tellurian]

32. Katzenkavalier, I admire your patience..

So, please understand. Trust me, Hillary will indeed get my vote, but she will get an aching vote from me. A tired vote. A hopeless vote. A vote that won't be looking to the future with optimism, because yes... Obama might be able to wait 8 years, or maybe by 2016 his chance will be gone, and who knows when another Obama will appear in politics again, and again people will say "He's not ready" and he will have to wait 8 more freaking years...

Beautifully written and expressed, Katzenkavalier. If this were any other point in time, you may be able to sway me into giving Obama serious consideration for my support and for my vote. I know you will be reluctant to hear this because no doubt you've heard it all before. The Republican hate machine is the most vile ugliness infecting this country today. The Clintons were almost destroyed because of it. They survived. They learned. They've prepared over the last several years for this Battle Royal we are about to face in the next two upcoming elections.

I empathize with you. We have had our own hopes and dreams of a better life dashed several times with the assassinations of JFK and Bobby. They too held ideals similar to the ones you've stated. I have nothing against Obama, I like him very much, he shows great promise in the future and I say that not in a condescending way. I say it to be meaningful and true.

Hillary's experience and dedication to public service has been stellar. What she has in her corner to fight this fight is a dead reckoning of exactly whats she's up against. She has all her bases covered with loyal seasoned people who will fight for her as if they are fighting to succeed themselves. She doesn't have a handful of lifetime loyal supporters, she has an Army to meet the enemy head on. You can't organize a loyal army overnight. It takes years of cultivating friendships and testing loyalties to know you have their trust and they have yours.

That is the primary weakness, I see in Obama. It isn't a weakness he can cure overnight. The only weakness I see lacking in Obama is "time" and seasoning. Putting in the time and years of planning to insure success.

Truthfully, our country can't afford to be outfoxed by another Republican scheme to steal another election.
I fear it would be the end of America and the end of us all.

A great hug to you too, Katzenkavalier.. You make me smile, knowing the caliber of person you are, giving Hillary your vote, should she be the nominee.

[Colobo]

33. Thanks for understanding, Tellurian, and in fact

I had not seen Sen. Clinton in the light you have presented her. It is true she has what it takes not only to lead the country, but to fight the RW attack machine efficiently. She is indeed a great option for our party and will be a great president if she wins the nomination (and the elections, of course). I also know Obama is too fresh, and it would be an uphill battle for him to resist the smearing he will be subject to. I'm hoping he will be able to deal with it...

So, thanks again for understanding me and for presenting Sen. Clinton in a different light.

[Tellurian]

49. Tell me True..

Do you think in your heart of hearts, Obama is ready for this fight of colossal proportions?

[AtomicKitten]

41. And she does it under assault most of the time

yet perseveres in spite of it. There is so much dis/misinformation about Hillary Clinton perpetrated and perpetuated by some suspiciously rabid anti-Clintonites here at DU. I admire T's tenacity of spirit in the face of a pretty unfriendly audience most of the time.

As always, brava!

[Tellurian]

50. True-

and I always appreciate your wisdom and well spoken words deferring the fray at the most opportune times.

[NDP]

24. Hillary Clinton = name recognition and media backing. It's not a coincidence that she benefits

from the fact that just about every Democrat who works in cable news is a Clintonian. Tell me one Democrat on one of the networks that's not rooting for Hillary. Carville? Begala? Stephanopoulus?

[mnhtnbb]

28. ZZZZZZZZ. Wake me up in September.

[Colobo]

29. Bump

[SallyMander]

30. Run Al Run!!!

You have 14% and haven't lifted a finger! Imagine what you could do if you actually campaigned...

[Czolgosz]

31. Edwards is leading in Iowa and Obama is leading in New Hampshire:

Iowa:

Edwards 24%
Clinton 18%
Obama 18%
Vilsack 14%
Biden 5%
Richardson 3%
Clark 2%
Dodd 1%
Kucinich 1%
Undecided 14%

http://strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_022207.htm

New Hampshire:

Obama 23%
Clinton 19%
Edwards 19%
Kerry 5%
Clark 3%
Biden 3%
Kucinich 1%
Richardson 1%
Vilsack 1%
Not sure 22%

http://www.zogby.com/NEWS/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1237

The polls have little meaning at this stage, but the polls in the early caucus and primary states are a bit less irrelevant.

[AtomicKitten]

36. Gore's doing pretty good and not even running.

Just imagine when he throws his hat in the ring ....

[ComerPerro]

40. we are going to see different results every day for the next several months

[skipos]

42. That's too bad, because she polls like shit against McCain and Dame Rudy

The good news is that non-vp early frontrunners usually don't get the dem nomination

[Tellurian]

44. In case you haven't noticed...we make our own good news..

and are breaking past performance barriers..