The current 08 primary schedule

[Bucky]

According to Larry Sabato:

January 14th - Iowa caucuses

January 19th - Nevada Democratic caucuses

January 22nd - New Hampshire primary, Wyoming Republican county conventions (POSSIBLY)

January 29th - South Carolina Democratic primary, South Dakota primary (POSSIBLY), Florida primary (POSSIBLY)

February 2nd - South Carolina Republican primary, Oklahoma primary (POSSIBLY)

February 5th - Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Delaware, Florida (POSSIBLY), Idaho (POSSIBLY), Illinois (POSSIBLY), Michigan, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey (POSSIBLY), New Mexico, North Carolina, Utah primaries; Nevada Republican primary; North Dakota caucuses

February 9th - Louisiana Republican primary (POSSIBLY)

February 10th - Maine Democratic caucuses

February 12th - Tennessee, Virginia primaries

February 19th - Wisconsin primary

February 26th - Hawaii Democratic caucuses

March 2nd - Hawaii Republican caucuses

March 4th - Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont primaries; Minnesota caucuses

March 7th - Colorado Democratic primary

March 11th - Mississippi, Pennsylvania primaries

March 8th - Wyoming Democratic caucuses (POSSIBLY)

March 11th - Washington Republican primary

March 15th - Alaska Democratic caucuses

March 21st - Maine Republican caucuses

April 1st - Kansas primary

April 15th - Colorado Republican primary

May 6th - Indiana primary

May 13th - Nebraska, West Virginia primaries

May 20th - Kentucky, Oregon primaries

May 27th - Washington Democratic primary


I think this is going to be a mess

[quinnox]

1. this is great

Going to be very exciting with all the changes

[Bucky]

3. It's gonna be a disaster, I think.

They're shutting out the grassroots in favor of the big media-friendly candidates. A handful of large media conglomerates will decide who the voters get exposed to when they make their decisions next winter. This is good for insiders and bad for democracy.

[Adelante]

20. Horrible for democracy

Truly. :puke:

[TSIAS]

11. Don't think it's great

Instead, the race will be decided by whoever takes the momentum after Iowa and NH.

[MadHound]

18. Not really,

This looks very rigged in favor of those who begin the campaign with a huge warchest, ie the corporate whore branch of the Democratic party. No more dark horses like Carter, no chance for building momentum, pretty much the will be done with in early Feb., and certainly all over in early March.

Severely limits the chances of the second tier candidates. No more suprise runs like Clinton's. It does however thoroughly entrench corporate interests deeper within the party. How very sad.

[AshevilleGuy]

2. So, NC moved up to February 5th?!?!?!?!?

I am astounded. They did something logical. :thumbsup:

[NCarolinawoman]

7. I have heard they are considering it.

I will be curious to know if it will once again be a caucus or if they will change it to a primary.

I would much prefer a primary.

[NDP]

14. There is no way in the world people in this state are going to turn out for a caucus

First of all, they won't like "the word." Secondly, anything that takes "time" they aren't going to want to be doing in the evening. They should leave it as a primary so people can just show up and vote and leave.

You can't put in a "caucus" at the last minute and expect people to support it.

[NoPasaran]

4. Texas is also considering moving up to February 5

Both parties seem to favor it, so it's likely to be approved by the legislature.

[ooga booga]

5. Interesting info...but you're right that it'll be a big mess......

the further down you are on the schedule the more likely you are to be just a spectator in the process.

Once again NH and IA will have enormous influence, while most of the rest of us just watch and wait.

I suppose the more screwed up this gets the closer we get to eventually fixing the system.

[Clarkie1]

6. We'll know February 6th if it will be a mess or not.

Either the race will be over, or there will be no clear frontrunner in which case there could be a brokered convention.

[Bucky]

8. I think the chances of a brokered convention are very very slim

If all the states were jumping off on February 5th, there'd be a chance, sure. But several big states are holding off till March 4th: Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas (tho there's chatter about Texas moving up to February too), Vermont, and Minnesota.

Even if Texas bails on the March date, that's still three big states (GA, NY, & OH) and three medium sized states that Democrats consider their natural turf (MA, MD, & MN). A decisive showing on those dates should close the deal for whoever's left standing.

[Clarkie1]

10. O.K., perhaps you're right. nt

[liberalpragmatist]

9. February 5 looks like practically a national primary

I would prefer a national primary to random front-loading. But I'd still prefer a series of 4 rotating regional primaries held over the course of 3-4 months.

I read somewhere that if all the states that are considering Feb. 5 move their primaries to that date, over half the primary electorate will be voting that day.

I just hope there's enough time between the first four contests and the Feb. 5 contests. It's going to be a rapid sprint from there.

It could conceivably be a big mess too; imagine that Edwards takes Iowa, Obama takes South Carolina (razor-thin), Edwards takes Nevada and Clinton takes New Hampshire, then on Feb. 5, the votes split such that Clinton gets a plurality of the delegates elected that day (say, around 40%), Obama takes 25%, Edwards 25%, and the Richardson, Dodd, Biden and the rest taking the last 10%. What the hell would happen next?

[NDP]

16. If Edwards takes Iowa, no one else has a prayer in South Carolina

[FreeStateDemocrat]

12. Maryland is considering moving to second week in February.

[Sparkly]

13. I hope so!!!

March 4th - Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont primaries; Minnesota caucuses

I'd REALLY like to see one of our New England states OR Maryland earlier. (New Hampshire is not typical of the rest of New England, unfortunately.)

[NDP]

15. There should be a rule that says only 5 states at most can hold a primary/caucus on the same day

This is ruining politics, and clearly meant to benefit the candidates with the most money and the media companies that get that money. If they think it's about giving their states a "say," they are just as ignorant as the voters who will only vote for the candidate that won the primary before theirs, as most will, because there will be less interaction between candidates and voters with this pathetic schedule.

[Mass]

17. Either it will be finished Feb 2nd or the one with the most money will win.

[Le Taz Hot]

19. Yes!!!!

A good chunk of the rest of the country FINALLY gets a choice! Woo Hoo!

LTH,
California

[LWolf]

21. I'm wondering....

is there any reason why I should bother to vote on May 20th? It will all be decided by then. I predict that this primary schedule guarantees that the Democrats lose my vote. The nominee will be all but crowned on my primary day, and is most likely to be someone who won't get my vote in the general election. Not that I think my vote will be missed, lol.

[SharonRB]

22. Your information on Michigan is wrong

It may change, but for now the Democratic Caucuses in Michigan are scheduled for February 9. If any state moves ahead of the February 5 date in defiance of DNC rules, Michigan will move its date to whatever that date is or earlier. That is likely to happen, as you note that SD, FLA and OK are already considering this.

Another possibility: The Michigan Democratic Party is currently in negotiations with the Michigan Repubican Party to hold a joint closed primary, which would probably be on Feb. 5.

So, for now, we're scheduled for Feb. 9, but there's a good chance that will change.

Personally, if Super Tuesday is shaping up to be on Feb. 5, I'd hate to go any later than that.

You're right, though, this is going to be a mess. I went to see Conyers this morning and he said bunching everything up so early is really going to hurt the process.