The Republican presidential candidates

[Bucky]

Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo, Tommy Thompson

and maybe Chuck Hagel.

How long has it been since Republicans nominated a surprise? I teach US history and I can't think of a single surprise nominee since 1964. As troubled as McCain is, I just don't see how any of his well-moneyed rivals (Giuliani, Romney, and maybe Gingrich) can steal the conservative base from him. The Bible thumpers don't like him, but they'll swallow hard and line up after a nomination, no matter what. The movement conservatives--Brownback, Gilmore, Hunter, and Tancredo--don't seem to be getting any corporate approval. One of the four of them (I'm guessing Brownback) will score a few upsets before being pleasantly put down by rightwing media commentators. Everyone else running (those three ex-governors and possibly Gingrich) is just sorta quaint and really won't go anywhere.

At one point, whenever Republicans are forced to vote for their leader, rather than just line up behind who they're told to like, they all do a gut check. They look at the guy who's being paraded in front of them and they ask, "Nice, but is he one of us?" Bush flew thru the primaries seven years ago because at a gut level he conned them into thinking he was one of them. I don't see how anyone beside McCain can make that love connection.

What am I missing here? Is there anyone out there who can genuinely beat McCain? Or should we be prepared to be not surprised again?

[Czolgosz]

1. Is Tommy Thompson running?

[TwilightGardener]

2. I read that McCain is doing pretty well in NH polls, a state he won

in 2000--people are counting him out WAY too soon, IMO. Really, if I had to say who was more qualified, him or Rudy or Romney, I'd have to say McCain, although he's so dang old. It's just that Freeperville seems to hate him so. For them it's 99% loyalty to the GOP, and they think he's somehow disloyal--because DEMS used to like him! LOL!

[AshevilleGuy]

3. No surprise this time, either. They want to win.

2008 could be problem for them, so they will take no chances. It will be Rudy.