McCain is in Trouble, but It's Still Early

[jcrew2001]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/03/its_way_to_soon_to_count_out_m.html
McCain is in Trouble, but It's Still Early
By Gerard Baker

It's a particular peril of reporting on the 2008 presidential election campaign in this early phase that impossibly large conclusions are drawn at absurdly premature moments from supposedly significant events. This applies to just about everything about the election but especially to the horse race aspect of the contest by which the media is always transfixed. Even in the late stages of a campaign interpreting polling numbers can be a risky business; at this stage it borders on the certifiably insane.

For a couple of weeks now the favorite piece of early conventional wisdom is that John McCain's campaign for the Republican nomination is in serious trouble. Just a month after he was almost universally agreed to be the prohibitive frontrunner for the nomination, the Arizona senator's campaign is now, in the view of a surprisingly large number of pundits, badly hobbled.

Commenting on CNN this week on Mr McCain's slumping poll ratings, James Carville - not, to be sure, a wholly disinterested observer - declared that in his view McCain's "heart is not in it" and said he thought he would be out of the race entirely by the time of the Iowa caucuses. Anybody familiar with the battleship of a campaign operation Mr McCain continues to build in northern Virginia would be a little surprised by that observation, but Mr Carville was only voicing a more extreme view of what most pundits are saying. Stuart Rothenburg, a more objective commentator by any measure, wrote in Roll Call this week that it no longer looked as though Mr McCain was the clear frontrunner.

-----------------------------------------
My Take:
I'm going to agree with Carville and say that if McCain drops further and Rudy spikes in the polls, then McCain will seriously consider dropping out of the race, even before Iowa. I think this would have to do more with his age and whether he feels up to it 6 months from now. Although McCain will be a very strong opponent for any Dem including Hillary - He will still have a very strong old man Dole factor.

I think that 'republican strength in winning the election' is seriously in doubt. However, I'm not convinced that a Democratic win is a guarantee either. GWBush's wins I believe were about maintaining the base and relying on name recognition.

Unfortunately for McCain, he can't use his name to maintain the base. However, Hillary will use this tactic in the Dem primary - for Hillary this might be enough, but will it be enough to avert the 2000 stalemate that GWBush faced?

I hope that the 2008 election does not come down to a stalemate. I want this country to move forward with clarity instead of being muddled in partisanship. I think the last 8 years of Bush have solidified what direction we need to go in - meaning that we must change course and bring in smarter and more capable leaders.

I'm not sure if the Dem frontrunners can win more than 50% of the vote. With McCain out of the picture, it will be easier. The article also mentioned that had George Allen won re-election, he would have challenged McCain as a frontrunner. Although I'm glad Webb won, and we re-captured the Senate, if George Allen actually won the Repub Nomination as a ultra-conservative, it would improve the Dem nominee's chances in the presidential election because moderate voters would vote against Allen.

[eleny]

1. Yeah, there's time for him to get into more trouble!

[Colobo]

2. The guy is done

Rudy is more attractive to moderates, is loved by the media, and is not saying foolish things on the campaign trail as McCain is...

[Cha]

3. "Including hillary"...like

she's gonna take it or something.

[jcrew2001]

4. Its still about the moderate voters IMO

and the GWBush elections of 2000 and 2004 relied on partisanship and name recognition to win.

There are still more undecided voters with no allegiance. Hillary will need to win over these moderates but I think that GWB will be the only successful 'legacy' candidate. There are just too many people who are anti-Clinton.

Carville does want McCain out because he knows McCain can beat Hillary. I think that Hillary's only chances are hammering the old age theme for McCain and presenting herself as a new voice and a new hope, like Bill did in 1992 against GHWB.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

5. Not early enough.

Photoshop?

[bigdarryl]

6. It is early BUT McCain is done like Coumo said he's not the McCain of 2000

[NDP]

7. McCain is prehistoric. He never had a chance, regardless of what the media said.

[IndianaGreen]

8. Independents have turned against the war, and McCain has lost their support

Independents and moderate Republicans were the backbone of McCain's 2000 campaign. Now that McCain has aligned himself with Bush on the war, he is losing the support of his old base, without gaining any support from Bush's supporters.

Rigor mortis has yet to set in, but McCain's campaign is as dead as his integrity.

[Lefty48197]

9. He's going to have to pander to the right wing in desperation

Look for him to appear in church a lot in the near future.