Democratic Candidates' Fortunes May Hinge on Long-Term Iraq Plans

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The Wall Street Journal

Democratic Candidates' Fortunes May Hinge on Long-Term Iraq Plans
By NEIL KING JR.
March 24, 2007; Page A1


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"The Democrats have adopted the position of not really addressing what the post-departure scenario might look like, because it's very hard to do," said Zbigniew Brzezinski, a national-security adviser to President Carter who said the U.S. should pull out "in a reasonably short period of time" in testimony last month before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "Naturally, they have to argue that the whole, vague horror theory won't happen. But making the case for a rosier scenario with any specificity also isn't easy." And yet, demands for more particulars are only likely to increase as the campaign unfolds. In the most recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, taken earlier this month, voters by a wide margin picked Iraq as the government's top priority. When asked to rank the issues they most wanted the federal government to address, 30% named Iraq. Health care, the next-highest priority, was named by just 18% of those surveyed.

Mrs. Clinton has offered additional details on her vision for Iraq -- and is getting flak from many liberals for her plan. The next president, she has said, "will inherit this situation, with all of its complexity and all of its heartbreak." If she were elected, she adds, she would look after America's "vital national security interests" by leaving a troop presence in Iraq well into the future to assure that al Anbar province and other areas don't become overrun with al Qaeda operatives. Mrs. Clinton has resisted posing specifics on troop numbers. But her spokesman said she "would leave only a very limited number of U.S. forces in the region to carry out the reduced mission."

Mr. Obama has offered his own bill that calls for pulling out most U.S. troops by next March while leaving behind an unspecified number of soldiers to protect U.S. facilities, train Iraqi troops and "conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations." The bill also proposes leaving some troops in the region "to serve as an over-the-horizon force to prevent the conflict in Iraq from becoming a wider war." But Mr. Obama continues to play to what his campaign considers his chief strength: his early and strong opposition to the 2003 invasion -- though at the time he was an Illinois state senator. The main slogan on his campaign Web site touts how he "opposed the war from the start." But Obama aides insist the senator is under no illusions. "He is very sober in his assessment of this and makes no bones about the fact that the situation in Iraq is something that he would inherit were he to become president," one aide said.

Mr. Edwards, meanwhile, has apologized for his 2002 Senate vote authorizing Mr. Bush to use force against Iraq. He says his call to immediately withdraw 40,000-50,000 troops would show Washington is serious about wanting Iraqis to take responsibility for securing their country. At the same time, Mr. Edwards says Congress should cap funding at a level that would allow the Bush administration to keep a maximum of 100,000 troops in Iraq while a diplomatic solution is hammered out. Beyond that, he calls for a complete withdrawal of combat troops over the next 12 to 18 months, without leaving behind any permanent U.S. military bases.

Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware, though far behind in polls, is the only Democratic contender so far to have offered up a detailed, long-term plan for Iraq. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman describes his plan as a middle path between Mr. Bush's current escalation and the approach of his Democratic rivals, which he describes as "just leave and hope for the best." The Biden plan calls for creating three regions for Iraq's Shiite Muslim, Sunni Muslim and Kurdish populations, and creating an oil-sharing agreement that would provide all sides with a revenue base. The proposal has drawn few adherents, but Mr. Biden hopes it will help him gain momentum in a crowded field. Mrs. Clinton and others say the time for such solutions has passed, and that the U.S. no longer has sufficient leverage in Iraq to implement such a plan.

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