Fellow Obama Supporters: I'm Getting Nervous

[Superman Returns]

I'm not trying to be an alarmist or dramatic because I know the caucuses and primaries are still a long way to go. Yet, I'm starting to get a bit nervous lately as I look at the various polls, both state and national. Besides the fact that Clinton has demonstrated that she has a juggernaut political and money machine in place that makes her nomination seem all but inevitable, I also feel that the first four caucuses/primaries are not going to be to Obama's advantage. Edwards and Clinton are dominating Iowa, especially now that Vilsack is out. Nevada, also seems ripe for either Clinton and Edwards. Union support and western voters make Edwards very competitive. South Carolina is Edwards territory, though again, I expect Clinton's machine and firm support in the African-American community to put her within striking distance. The only place I see Obama making ground is New Hampshire. With all the big state primaries moving up to extremely early dates, and being all crammed togther, I fear that it will be an even quicker version of 2004, in which all the states quickly fell to Kerry. If Obama doesn't pick up steam early, it can be over quick for him.

For the past few months or so, it seems like everything was going Obama's way: media attention, quick comebacks against attacks, star power, great speeches. But if he comes in third in Iowa and can't pick build momentum going into states like California, where does that leave us? I also feel that although Obama is popular with crowds and average people, his campaign also seems to be missing out on getting the political support of local officials in these primary states that are essential to winning other endorsements and ultimately the primary itself. Again, I know how quickly things can turn around. Lieberman was once our likely 04 candidate, then it was Howard Dean. But with the nature of the early, crammed primaries in large states, and the Clinton machine, I'm still nervous.

[Kagemusha]

1. Obama had no right to think he'd be the favorite at this point...

And he's not. He is, however, perceived as a legitimate candidate who has a real shot. At this stage of the race that's an impressive feat. He's fallen back to earth somewhat and that's just completely to be expected. Doesn't mean it'll stay that way.

[Greyhound]

37. replied to wrong post.

oops

[skipos]

2. I wouldn't say Obama is my 1st pick, but Hillary is definitely my last

Sometimes it takes 1 simple event to deflate a campaign. If Hillary does poorly in Iowa, I'd think that will really take the steam out of her campaign (like it did to Dean).

The bottom line is... most people aren't paying attention yet. You have many more months to go before you should start being worried.

[LynneSin]

3. I adore Obama but I still think he's a long shot for the nomination

Although if he is not nominated I hope whoever gives Obama strong consideration for VP slot!

[acmavm]

4. Why do you think that everything was going Obama's way? No

one that I know has any intention of voting for him, no one I know thinks he has any business putting his name in the ring considering that until 2004 no one even knew who he was. I live right smack dab in the middle of the country and I have NEVER met anyone who thinks he'd be a good candidate. I know I have no intention of voting for him either which is no big deal.

Mark my words. He will not be the Democratic nominee for President. And please all things good and holy in this world and any other, Hillary won't either.

[Telly Savalas]

26. Outside of Arkansas, who knew who Bill Clinton was in 1988?

[TwilightGardener]

5. It's early yet, and Dems don't usually go with the whoever the frontrunner is this

early out. He's the underdog, which is not a bad spot to be in right now. He'll do fine.

[Silence Dogood]

6. This is my fear

that Obama will begin to flounder like a wounded animal after he takes center stage. I'm hoping his handlers will tell him when it's time to throw in the towel, rather than have him carry on over his head on the inevitable path to his self-destruction.

I hope others are looking out for him, as I am.

[elizm]

23. Looking out for him????

With statements like this...

"I'm hoping his handlers will tell him when it's time to throw in the towel, rather than have him carry on over his head on the inevitable path to his self-destruction"

PLEASE...with friends/supporters like you who the hell needs enemies?? Please do us all a favor and stop 'looking out after him'.

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Learn2Swim]

8. No reason to get down yet, Superman...

there's a long way to go yet. Besides, like others said, one little thing can tip a race like this on it's side at any moment, so no need in worrying this far out. The only people that really care about current day standings/polls/etc are people like us here. But we aren't the norm, now are we? ;)

I just hope that we have the foresight enough not to nominate Clinton. I will be fine with just about anyone else. I will lose hope if it's her. We'd probably be looking at another 8 years of getting our ass kicked.

[flpoljunkie]

9. Hold your horses! Zogby Barnerburner! Top Three Dems in Tight Iowa Contest

Released: March 27, 2007
Zogby Barnburner! Top Three Dems In Tight Iowa Contest

Edwards retains small lead over Clinton, Obama

The race for the Democratic Party nomination for President has grown very tight in the nation’s first caucus state, as likely Iowa Democratic caucus–goers give John Edwards a tiny lead over Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, a new Zogby telephone poll shows.

Edwards leads with 27% support, the same percentage that backed him in a mid–January Zogby poll. Close on his heels is Clinton at 25% support, up from 16% in the January poll. Obama has also improved his standing among Iowans over the past two months, winning 23% support. Fifteen percent said they were unsure whom they would support.

Obama won 17% support in the January survey.

The race tightened after two key developments – former Gov. Tom Vilsack’s endorsement of the Clinton campaign, and the dramatic announcement that Edwards would continue his campaign despite a new cancer diagnosis for his wife, Elizabeth.

This new poll, conducted March 26, 2007, included 506 interviews with likely Democratic party caucus–goers, and carries a margin of error of +/– 4.5 percentage points. Zogby will release the results of a survey of likely Republican caucus–goers later this week.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1270

[BeyondGeography]

10. The MSM just ate him for lunch in the past week

and while they're digesting the meal, the Net police (Greenwald/Salon and TPM among others) are exposing their herd-like and empty ways.

Still, Obama gave them an opening with the weak health-care forum performance on Saturday. Axelrod's, "Hi, I'm Barack," phase has to cometo an end sooner than they thought and I think they're getting it. You're already seeing sharper rhetoric (the "social Darwinism" phrase yesterday, which earned Obama headlines over Hillary and Edwards, who spoke at the same forum) and the April 3 health care town hall-style meeting in NH. The MSM and other doubters will realize very soon that the no-substance meme is crap.

This is a marathon and Barack is built for the long haul. Hang in there.

[Le Taz Hot]

11. Although I'm not an Obama supporter,

two things come to mind:

1) It's WAAAAAY early. Too many things can change. Hillary has HER HUSBAND'S machine going for her and everyone knew she would come out of the starting gate strong because of it. Any polling this early out means NOTHING. Hillary's support is a mile wide and a 1/4" deep. Now, whether the machine will still be strong enough (currently debatable) to shove their establishment candidate down everyone's throat again remains to be seen.

2) Iowa and New Hampshire aren't as important as they've been in the past. A WHOLE bunch of states have moved or are in the process of moving their primaries up as a direct result of what happened in 2004.

[ieoeja]

19. Moving the other primaries up makes NH and IA *more* important.

Think of the bounce each general election candidate gets in the polls from their conventions. Winners in NH and IA also get a bounce which wears off over time. By compressing the primaries the bounce has less time to wear off. So the first primaries are more likely than ever to decide the victor.

[Le Taz Hot]

36. Unfortunately, the first caucus HAS

decided the nominee in the past without the benefit of the rest of the country getting any input. In 2004, by the time California's March primary occurred, Kerry had been chosen by 600+ mostly Caucasian Iowans and the corporate media did the rest. It remains to be seen, of course, what impact the new arrangements will have but I'd like to think the unholy alliance of the party machine (CLEARLY on Hillary's bandwagon) and the MSM will NOT be able to anoint the winner as they have in the past because the wait for other larger, more diverse states won't be several weeks away.

[wyldwolf]

12. part of his problem may be overzealous tech savvy supporters

The recent YouTube video comes to mind, not comes the suspicion his supporters are fudging YouTube page and video view numbers.

http://www.techpresident.com/node/193

I'm not saying Obama is alone in having supporters do things like this, and I'm not saying these things are even wrong to do, but when the media spins them, they look bad.

http://www.techpresident.com/node/193

[liberalpragmatist]

13. It's 10 months out

A LOT can change. Do you remember who up-and-down the primary polls were during the '04 season? And who would have picked Kerry practically sweeping the primaries just 3 weeks out?

Obama's doing well. He faces tough competition from two other very strong candidates, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. But he has a lot of strengths of his own and he may very well win this thing. It's way too early to panic.

[sallyseven]

14. Its a long long way from March to March.

The days grow short when you reach
September. paraphrase an old song. It is a long time until next March when all the action happens. The press has a very short memory. He will be ok or not who knows. I hope he is ok but I am an Edwards person.

[elizm]

24. Maybe you haven't noticed...

...All of the primaries being moved up. It could all be SETTLED by Feb. 1st...not JUST getting cranked up.

[zulchzulu]

15. It's good to get nervous and not get over-confident....

...especially this early in the campaign.

The dynamics of the primary/caucus season is going to be very interesting with California now in contention on February 5 instead of June 5. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina all add up to about half the delegates that California has, which last I checked is 441. If Obama slams through Cali, he will be in the catbird seat.

What you do need to feel is nervous. And also in touch with the campaign. And also out in the streets working on grassroots efforts as well as online.

This is going to be a battle. Get involved.

As for Obama, I am very confident that he will do just fine on the campaign trail. Sure, there will be some hurdles to jump over, but that's part of the ride.

[Dr Fate]

17. Excellent attitude if I may say so. Obama will do well with supporters who think this way.

Contrast this to camp Hillary, whose group-think, "Air of inevitability", fixation on 1990's political models and bullying may very well be their hubris/downfall.

I'm still choosing b/t Edwards & Obama for my pic-may the best man win!!!

[Dr Fate]

16. I think he has a chance. Everyone I talk to loves him. Not likes- loves.

He has a good of a chance as any- and many a slip between a cup & a lip.

My top pics are Edwards & Obama.

[Nedsdag]

18. He has to use the past vs. future meme.

Not to mention pump up what his policies and beliefs are for the country.

He should also bring up the "two families" running the country for 16 and that it isn't healthy for democracy in this country.

Just a thought.

[Radical Activist]

20. First,

if you're an Obama supporter you could post this in the Obama forum.

Its important not to get caught up in the weekly back and forth of who looks ahead at one moment to the next. The long run is more important and right now is a bad time to be in first place. You don't want to peak too early. That was one of Dean's mistakes and I tend to think Hillary has reached as high in the polls as she ever will. No one is going to learn anything new about Hillary that will make them change their mind because everyone already knows who she is. Obama is still introducing himself to voters and gaining support.

National polls are meaningless. The early primary states are more important. Hillary won't win Iowa and it will all be downhill for her from there.

[ElizabethDC]

21. Supporters of every candidate should be nervous, b/c nothing is for sure

I mean, no one's gonna have a lock on the nomination this early. So relax. A million things could happen between now and the primaries. These could be things that help your candidate or hurt your candidate - you have no way of knowing. None of us know - we all have to be realistic.

[elizm]

22. Any polls on California yet???

With the candidates in a dead heat in Iowa now, according to the new Zogby poll, http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1270, I can't see where Obama is losing ground. And with California moving it's primary up, that can only be a good thing. I live in South Carolina and of course I haven't seen any polls from here, but I see plenty of support for him here so don't count us out either! If the Democrats nominate Hillary just because she has the 'money machine in place'...then we will get exactly what we deserve....another Republican President.

[Bullet1987]

25. It's way too early to worry about polls...

And who cares what the MSM says?

[Colobo]

27. I'm kinda nervous too, but it's part of the game

Let's use the energy in positive things, like getting involved, donating, etc. I think Obama is getting the message that the introductory phase of his campaign is basically over, and we are starting to see him in attack mode now (jabs against Bush, McCain).

I still have a lot of faith in Obama's capacities and good judgement.

[Learn2Swim]

33. well said

We have a local meeting planned here this Saturday, our first full-fledged one of its kind. Should be a good time, and a good way to start beefing up our local support.

Barack will also be doing a live webcast during the meeting. Supposed to be quite a few like it going on around the country. I'll probably post details in the Obama page after the event. :thumbsup:

[Learn2Swim]

34. oh, and

he's just gettin started people. :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: ;)

[tiffane]

28. Stop worrying and get some shuteye

The election will be rigged for the best candidate to complete the NAU. That my dear will probably be Hillary unless Edwards is in on it too. They have been working on it far too hard and long to risk it now.

WE'RE TOAST.

[ripple]

29. Fear not

It's early and a lot of folks don't know much about Obama. He's collecting money from large donors hand over fist. He probably won't exceed Hillary's donations, but it shows he has a lot of high rollers who believe in him enough to wager on him.

With that said, I do think there is a strong possibility that Edwards and Obama will sort of split the voters who are looking for an alternative to Clinton, as both share a similar message. Obama will need to play his cards well and if he's smart, he'll play against Clinton, rather than Edwards. Keep in mind, too, that Obama has already tapped into a lot of younger potential voters that aren't registered and therefore are not polled. If anyone can get them to the polls, he can.

I understand your concerns and I'm not immune from fretting about the same things myself, but logically, we need to keep in mind that it's far too early to succumb to 'foregone conclusions'.

[Clarkie1]

30. The honymoon is over, the novelty has worn off.

He's still a good guy.

[Colobo]

31. Now is the time for him to show the world he is the goods!

[Clarkie1]

35. Yeah. nt

[nevergiveup]

32. Do not worry about Obama

He will do fine. There will be ups and downs but he is still defining himself. Almost everyone I know likes him and this group includes oldsters, youngsters, Democrats, Independents and a few Republicans. I have been around this game for many a year, going back to Eisenhower/Stevenson, and my gut tells me that if anyone is going to spoil Hillary's party, it is going to be Obama.

[Greyhound]

38. Good analysis, unfortunately this nomination is Clinton's to loose.

The party power brokers have declared her their choice and as long as she doesn't come out as a lesbian or in favor of strangling puppies as a government sponsored after school activity, she'll be our choice.

I suppose it could be worse, they could have picked Lieberman.

Ms. Greyhound has an interesting theory about her that gives me some hope, but I'm waiting awhile before stating it.

[Czolgosz]

39. At this stage in the last election cycle, the MSM had narrowed the field to Dean vs. Gephardt

so this type of polling is too early to get uptight about.