Latest Rasmussen poll--Edwards up by 9% over McCain and trouncing Romney

[mnhtnbb]

Unfortunately, they did not repoll Edwards against Giuliani post the Elizabeth announcement.

Hillary loses to McCain and Giuliani

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Political%20Tracking/Presidential%20Match-Ups/March%202007/McCainvs.Edwards20070330.htm


Obama ties McCain and loses to Giuliani

[Tekla West]

1. too early

means less than nothing

[mnhtnbb]

4. No, I think it means Hillary should brush up her cookie recipes.

[skipos]

6. Not when poll after poll shows Hillary underperforming in the gen. election

There is a pattern here. All her money is not able to buy her good numbers anywhere but the primary. I agree that Huckabee vs. Richardson is a useless poll since no one know who they are, but eveyerone knows who Rudy and Hillary are, and most people already have formed enough of an opinion about them. Could Hillary still win the primary (shudder) and win the general election? Sure. Her numbers indicate she has more of an uphill battle than many other candidates. These are the latest from Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster in 2006...

McCain (48%) Clinton (41%) CLINTON LOSES BY 7%
McCain (38%) Edwards (47%) EDWARDS WINS BY 9%
McCain (44%) Obama (44%) TIED

Thompson (44%) Clinton (43%) CLINTON LOSES BY 1%
Thompson (37%) Obama (49%) OBAMA WINS BY 12%

Brownback (41%) Clinton (46%) CLINTON WINS BY 5%
Brownback (34%) Obama (49%) OBAMA WINS BY 15%

Giuliani (49%) Clinton (41%) CLINTON LOSES BY 8%
Giuliani (48%) Edwards (41%) EDWARDS LOSES BY 7%
Giuliani (46%) Obama (40%) OBAMA LOSES BY 6%

Gingrich (43%) Clinton (50%) CLINTON WINS BY 7%
Gingrich (38%) Obama (48%) OBAMA WINS BY 10%

Hagel (40%) Clinton (48%) CLINTON WINS BY 8%
Hagel (34%) Obama (50%) OBAMA WINS BY 16%

Romney (41%) Clinton (50%) CLINTON WINS BY 9%
Romney (29%) Edwards (55%) EDWARDS WINS BY 26%
Romney (36%) Obama (51%) OBAMA WINS BY 15%

[TwilightGardener]

11. Hagel and Brownback do surprisingly well, considering no one

probably knows who the hell they are. That's very worrisome.

[skipos]

13. They do surprisingly well *against Hillary*

As far as I can tell, any candidate is going to get an automatic 35% or so because of the dedicated party base, but Hillary seems to inspire the opposition a bit more.

[TwilightGardener]

15. That makes sense for Brownback--the folks being polled hear

"Republican" and say, that's my guy, and I don't even know who he is. For Hagel, I guess word hasn't spread yet that he's Public Enemy No. 1 in the GOP--he should be polling 5 or 10%, at MOST. Hillary will bring out the vote AGAINST her, I have no doubt. I really, really hope she's not the nominee, as mean and unfair as that is--I do like her.

[TwilightGardener]

12. Edwards and Obama are the guys to run--it's pretty consistent across

the board. And in terms of Obama, people using his race to say he's "unelectable" need to see these numbers--he's beating White dudes, except for Rudy.

[mnhtnbb]

18. This Edwards v Giuliani is pre-Elizabeth announcement. Edwards'

numbers took a big leap after the announcement.

People admire John and Elizabeth as a couple. Her health problems with
cancer bring the issue of universal health care right to the top.

[Old and In the Way]

2. The poll I'm interested in-

"any" Democrat vs. "any" Republican

Rather than play personalities, why aren't polling companies asking that macro question?

[mnhtnbb]

5. Because they know the answer that any dem beats any repub

[skipos]

7. The problem is that if we nominate someone with high unfavorables (Hillary)

and they nominate someone with high favorables (Giuliani) all that generic Dem vs. Rep stuff goes out the window.

[Old and In the Way]

8. I don't buy it.

If, heaven forbid!, Hillary is the nominee, most of the opposition will melt, like snow in June. Because it still boils down to Democrat or Republican. I suspect there are many people who will screw with the pollsters now to weaken Hillary's primary bid...why not? When the smoke clears and the choice is binary...Democrat or Republican - I doubt there are many Democrats who will be willing to give the Republicans another go at frustrating a Democratic agenda.

And, if Hillary is smart, she's going to start cranking up the rhetoric on the VRWC...because, in my mind, there are few people who should have a greater interest in revenge then the Clintons.

[skipos]

9. Did you see the poll with 20% of Dems saying they wouldn't vote for Hillary?

Or the poll with Giuliani getting 20% of the Dem vote in a poll against Hillary?
The fact that Rudy beats most Dems in most polls? The fact that McCain beats many Dems in many polls?

I am well aware that a lot can change between now and the election but if you think that we are in for a cakewalk in 08, I couldn't disagree more. Just because 70% of America thinks Bush blows does not mean that most Americans will run out and vote for the Dem candidate. Look at how narrowly Webb beat Allen (a total Bushbot turd), Tester beat Burns (another Bushbot turd), or the fact that 33% of Connecticut Democrats voted for Joe "I love the War" Lieberman.

[Old and In the Way]

10. What people say in a non-binding poll now, 18 months before the election

means nothing. But you are more than welcome to believe they are meaningful.

[skipos]

14. I addressed a lot more than polls in my post. Care to comment on any of it? nt

[Old and In the Way]

17. Sure...if there's a real poll where 20% of the Democrats say they won't vote for Hillary,

(1) They aren't Democrats or
(2) They are posturing for the pollster

I'm really not impressed with personality polls at this point...as I noted above, I'm only interested in "any" Democrat vs. "any" republican. The rest is pure BS. And what happened in 2004 is not particularly indicative of what will happen in 2008....certainly, 2006 was a better indicator of where the electorate is going. I suspect that the trend will continue, particularly with the Democrats finally doing oversight on this administration.

My error...this comment should be tagged to skipos @ 14

[bigdarryl]

3. Edwards is in a very good position number three. Hillary and Obama are peaking to early...

Obama is stuck where he's at. i predict by labor day Edwards pasts him

[Colobo]

16. Obama hasn't even started talking about concrete plans yet

This is just starting...