Released: May 23, 2007
Zogby: Obama Leads All Republicans in General Election Head to Head Contests
Moderates hold the key as match-ups show Giuliani, McCain would defeat Clinton and Edwards
Obama would defeat all Republican opponents, including John McCain of Arizona, Rudy Giuliani of New York City, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, and Fred Thompson of Tennessee in prospective presidential contests, the poll shows.
Meanwhile, Clinton would be defeated by both McCain and Giuliani, but would win against Romney and Thompson, the survey shows. Democrat John Edwards, the former senator from North Carolina, would also lose to McCain and Giuliani but defeats Romney and Thompson.
Overall, Obama would defeat McCain by a 47% to 43% margin, with the remaining 10% not sure. Against McCain, Obama does much better than Clinton among independents and Republicans, the survey shows. He wins 14% of the Republican vote, while just 8% of GOPers would cross the aisle for Clinton. Among independents, Obama wins 42% support against McCain, while Clinton wins 39% support. In both contests, McCain leads the two Democratic rivals among independents.
There is a big swing between the McCain–Obama contest and the McCain–Clinton contest among moderate voters, which in this survey included a partisan make–up of 38% Democrats, 25% Republicans, and 38% independents. In the McCain–Clinton contest, moderates favor McCain by a 49% to 45% edge, but in the McCain–Obama contest, moderates swing to favor Obama by a 49% to 41% margin. In contests against Giuliani, Obama enjoys a similar advantage compared to Clinton among these key swing voters.
Among independents, Giuliani narrowly tops Clinton, 44% to 43%, but Obama holds a huge 56% to 30% edge over Giuliani among those same voters.
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General Election match-ups:
McCain 47%, Clinton 43%
Giuliani 48%, Clinton 43%
McCain 43%, Obama 46%
Giuliani 42%, Obama 48%
McCain 46%, Edwards 41%
Giuliani 47%, Edwards 43%
McCain 52%, Richardson 31%
Giuliani 50%, Richardson 35%
Romney 40%, Clinton 48%
F. Thompson 41%, Clinton 48%
Romney 35%, Obama 52%
F. Thompson 35%, Obama 52%
Romney 36%, Edwards 50%
F. Thompson 40%, Edwards 48%
Romney 37%, Richardson 40%
F. Thompson 40%, Richardson 39%
The telephone survey, conducted May 17–20, 2007, included 993 respondents and carries a margin of error of +/– 3.2 percentage points.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1316