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Public Gives Clinton, Giuliani Best Odds of Winning Nominations
Only one in three thinks Gore would have a good chance of being the Democratic nominee
by Jeffrey M. Jones
PRINCETON, NJ -- A recent Gallup Panel survey asked a representative sample of Americans to assess how much of a chance each of the leading presidential candidates has of winning their party's 2008 presidential nomination. The vast majority of the public thinks Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have an excellent or good chance of being the Democrats' 2008 nominee, with Clinton given slightly better odds. Only about one in three Americans believes that reluctant candidate Al Gore would have a good chance should he enter the race. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani is rated as having the best chance of winning that party's nomination, while a majority also says John McCain has a good chance.
Clinton and Giuliani have consistently led in party preference polls for the 2008 nominations, so the perceptions that they have the best chances of winning are in line with their current "front-runner" status.
Respondents to the May 21-24 survey were asked the following question -- separately for each party -- about the leading candidates' chances of winning that party's nomination:
Next, I'm going to read some names of people currently running or considering a run for the
presidential nomination. Regardless of how you might feel about the person personally, please say whether, from what you have read and heard, you think each has an excellent chance, a good chance, only a slim chance, or no chance at all of winning the nomination for president in 2008. How about -- ?
Clinton is the Democratic candidate who is viewed as having the best shot of winning the party's 2008 nomination, with 83% of Americans saying she has an excellent (29%) or good (54%) chance. Slightly fewer Americans, 77%, say Obama has an excellent or good chance of winning the nomination. John Edwards is the only other candidate of the six Democrats tested that a majority of respondents rate as having a good chance.
Just 35% of Americans believe Gore would have a good chance of being the Democratic nominee should he enter the race, despite organized efforts underway to encourage him to run. The public views Bill Richardson and Joe Biden as long shots, though most give them at least a slim chance of winning rather than no chance at all. These latter two candidates are relatively unknown, so that may play into their lower scores in addition to their typically weak performances in preference polls.
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http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=27739