A few polling numbers

[Bucky]

via Polling Report.com

CBS News/New York Times Poll. May 18-23, 2007. N=1,001 registered voters nationwide.
"If the 2008 election for president were being held today, would you probably vote for the Republican candidate or would you probably vote for the Democratic candidate?"

Republican 33%
Democratic 49%
Depends 10%
Unsure 7%

Man, this looks GREAT in the abstract! A 16 percentage point margin! We're in like Flynn, right? Right? Sadly, no, again we must look at the ugly details.

Zogby America Poll. May 17-20, 2007. N=993 likely voters nationwide. MoE = 3.2%

General Election Trial Heats: May 17-20th and (February 22-24/07)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 48% (47%)
Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (40%)

Rudy Giuliani (R) 42% (40%)
Barack Obama (D) 48% (46%)

Rudy Giuliani (R) 47% (46%)
John Edwards (D) 43% (40%)

Rudy Giuliani (R) 50%
B. Richardson (D) 35%

Rudy's inched up a bit, entirely within the margin of error.

John S. McCain (R) 47% (47%)
Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (39%)

John S. McCain (R) 43% (40%)
Barack Obama (D) 46% (44%)

John S. McCain (R) 46% (47%)
John Edwards (D) 41% (38%)

John S. McCain (R) 52%
B. Richardson (D) 31%

McCain has inched down, but is still a stronger candidate than Giulie, if only because he lacks the stealth weaknesses that have yet to bear down on Il Douce. Republicans are crazy not to nominate McCain. Despite getting people killed in that Baghdad market, he's still the best they've got. And trust me, that statement is an indictment, not a compliment.

Willard M. Romney (R) 40% (35%)
Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (45%)

Willard M. Romney (R) 35% (29%)
Barack Obama (D) 52% (51%)

Willard M. Romney (R) 36% (32%)
John Edwards (D) 50% (47%)

Willard M. Romney (R) 37%
B. Richardson (D) 40%

Finally, someone that Clinton can beat. Still, bitter experience has taught me not to pray, "God, please let the Republicans nominate this man!" Also, note that Mitt's numbers have moved up more than anyone else's. He was probably suffering more from obscurity than Fundy anti-Mormon prejudices.

Fred Thompson (R) 41%
Hillary Clinton (D) 48%

Fred Thompson (R) 35%
Barack Obama (D) 52%

Fred Thompson (R) 40%
John Edwards (D) 48%

Fred Thompson (R) 40%
B. Richardson (D) 39%

Oh, was it all just a dream, Auntie Em? Yes, Dorothy, it was all just a dream. *Chung-chung*!

The Dems' current W-L records in these match-ups are:

H. Clinton (2-2) / +2% margin,
B. Obama (4-0) / +11% margin,
J Edwards (2-2) / +3% margin,
Richardson(1-3) / -9% margin

Other polls on the site bear these trends out. Richardson and Thompson are still mostly unknown, Obama has the most cross over appeal, and Edwards & Clinton have remarkably equal chances of winning (or losing).

[Egnever]

1. Ugh Mcain beats hillary

Thats just ugly.

[Dawgs]

2. Looks good if we nominate Obama.

[Clark2008]

3. Vindication for my reluctance.

And, I fully expect Thompson's numbers to go up over most, if not all, of our candidates upon his officials announcement and right-wing media butt-kissing coronation.

I don't see any of our candidates winning. I'm sorry. I shouldn't be so negative on this board, but I happen to be a realist and I simply don't see us winning this one with our current field.

I wish I could concentrate on some local races, but I don't see a Dem beating my congressman, either. Maybe I'll have some luck with whomever runs against Lamar Alexander. Sigh.

[Bucky]

4. Well, it does seem that specifics tend to hurt the Democrats.

Obama is the least specific. But as disaffected as voters are with Bush, their big four seem to have little trouble dancing away from his legacy--even Giuliani. We may have taken their mantle as the party of values, the party of education, the party of fiscal discipline, and the party of national security. But they are still the party of better marketing.

[mckeown1128]

8. You claim Obama is the least specific?!

Do you just feel that or have you even bothered to look at his website. I am really sick of people who just listen to the spin as opposed to actually finding out about a candidate.

[Rydz777]

5. I think the real clues are in the map of the Electoral College and

that map is increasingly blue. The northeast is solid. The (formerly)industrial mid-west will vote to get their jobs back. The border states are in play (e.g. Tennessee has a popular Democratic governor.) The Republican bases in the southwest are drying up: Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas (yes, Texas)now are over 50 % minority voters and will tend more Democratic. This is very true in Colorado too and in the mountain states as a whole. The west coast is solid.

The Electoral College looks good for the Democratic Party. I have absolutely no doubt that we will win the Presidency in 2008. What worries me is that Bush is going to leave behind a mountain of problems that will challenge the best efforts of his successor.

The wisest thing the Democratic Congress could do is to use funding and timetables to end the war NOW, so that that problem is not one that will be immediately on the desk of the new Democratic President.

Oh, how I wish for a clean start, so that we can deal with our problems at home!

[Judge_Mental]

6. Obama 4-0!

Clinton and Edwards 2-2

Why do so many people call Hillary the front runner?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. Nobody even knows who Obama is

Nobody knows enough about him to even formulate a negative opinion of him yet.
Goog gosh it is SOP that the relative newcomers' positives heavily outweigh the negs.
Likewise, EVERYBODY knows about Hillary and it has been nothing but RW negative BS for 15 years so her numbers can only get better as the campaign develops.

[Demeter]

7. It's Still Early Days, But If the Illegal Occupation Had Been Defunded...

I bet you a buck that the Democrats all would have been in 10 point leads.

[ClintonTyree]

10. I REALLY can't understand America's attraction........

to Giuliani. :wtf: What the hell do they see in that reptilian moron? 9/11, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11........that's all we ever hear from that dipshit! :grr: He's a one trick pony. I sincerely hope that American public isn't going to fall for another slickly packaged cardboard cutout like they did with Bush. Giuliani is another of the 'all form, no substance' RepubliCON candidates they keep shoving down this country's throat. How stupid can Americans BE? :banghead: