A question for Clark Supporters: Kerry beats Clark- then what?

[Patriot_Spear]

Right now, Kerry and Clark are virtually in a dead heat in NH- if Kerry defeats Clark (it is Kerry's backyard)- will it boost Kerry and hamper Clark's campaign in other states? The back and forth between those two camps (Clarks chicken wings / Kerry's Zero bars) shows this is obviously on their mind. Kerry will pick up financing and supporters if he takes 2nd in NH- what happens to the 3rd place candidate?

My question is: will a clear defeat of Clark by Kerry in NH be the death knell for the Clark Campaign; particularly when Kerry can outspend Clark 3 to 1? How can Clark come back if he remains in thrid place in every state primary?

[Patriot_Spear]

1. Please move this thread to the Campaign 2004 Gen Discussion Please!

n/t

[dobak]

2. no

A 2nd place finish for Kerry in NH is bad news

It may kill his campaign.

----

Also, how can Kerry outpspend Clark 3-1?

Kerry has not been raising much money.

[Patriot_Spear]

4. Kerry is not subject the the FEC cap...

He can spend as much as he wants- even of his own 50 million.

Doesn't a Kerry #2 spot in NH cemment him in the same spot nationally?

[mzmolly]

3. I think Kerry needs to focus on his domestic experience.

They are both thought to have FP experience right? But Kerry's domestic experience should give him the edge IMHO. :shrug: Seems if he focused on this, it could set him apart from Clark?

[Patriot_Spear]

5. True- and Kerry has a proven election record...

While Wesley's appeal is a bit of an unknown element as far as electioneering goes.

[jmaier]

7. Other than

running a pretty uninspiring campaign, I suspect members of Congress running for the Presidency don't get very much credit for having either domestic or foreign policy executive experience. Governors and even ex-military leaders seem to do better for some reason.

I like Kerry a great deal but I'm not sure how confident I am in Kerry, Gep or Lieberman trying to run a complex executive staff, thousands of employees, etc. It's a whole different ball game from being issues focused and running a small legislative staff.

[janx]

8. It might, yep.

I don't know what else he can do.

[Kanola]

68. I agree

Kerry has more experience than Clark on domestic issues and needs to show how he is different from Clark. Clark IMHO has not really spoken much about domestic issues. This is Kerry's chance to get the upperhand on Clark.

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. Heck no.

For most of a year now the buzz has been, who will come in first in NH, Kerry or Clark, and who of the others can take third? Both Kerry and Dean targeted massive amounts of time and energy into NH for over a year. They each come from neighboring states and NH gets a lot of its media from MA, so Kerry was almost seen as a favorite son going into that race. Both Dean and Kerry staked much of their credibility on winning NH, and campaigned consistent with that. The conventional question has been does Kerry have any chance at all if he loses NH to Dean? I still think he does, if he comes in a close second because by now expectations for him there have sunk so much. If Kerry only meets the lowered expectaton of a weak second though I think he is sunk.

You are talking theoretical dollars with your 3 to 1 ratio, dollars that can be spent between now and the Dems Convention. Clark is raising 10 million this quarter alone. Since he started so late, his expenditures for 2003 are much lower than Kerry's, so Clark can pour it on now without worrying about a cap. Clark coming in a relatively close third will still give him momentum. Clark beating Kerry would finish Kerry.

[OKNancy]

10. I agree and a strong third in NH would be

a very good thing for Clark. I think so many people live in the past and the way the primaries were done before. Never have so many important primaries come the very next week, and then through the month of Feb. Whomever wins NH....it will be a short-lived victory because then the focus will be on states that between them have five times the delegate count that NH does. Oklahoma alone has twice as many delegates as NH.

I think it is not going to be so much about wins as the proportion that each will receive. This will be a primary season where the delegate count will be closely watched.(IMO)

[Patriot_Spear]

11. Not to be combative...

But didn't they have to take down the Clark 'birthday cake' because they couldn't even hit $50,000? in a two week period? We Deaniacs do $50K in a few hours.

So you think 3rd is okay for Clark?

[Tom Rinaldo]

19. Funny you should ask that

Just went over to the Clark site. The "cake" isn't on the front page, it's on the blog page. Let's see. This is what it says:

"You asked for it, you got it. Starting today, December 4, 2003 and running until December 23, 2003 (General Clark's 59th birthday) we're asking you to give General Clark a birthday gift -- a donation to the Clark For President campaign.

There are 59 candles on this birthday cake. Each candle is worth $2000, for a goal of $118,000."

With 5 days remaining that fundraiser has currently brought in: $153,319.

Now I know that Dean has hit higher goals on line, but we are starting to wander very far from the original queston that you asked, aren't we? If you now turn this thread into a Dean is raising more than Clark debate, I think that would show bad faith on your part regarding your original intention, which was to compare Kerry's and Clarks situation in NH.

[Patriot_Spear]

25. Wow, that's great!

Sorry, you're right- we're suffering thread degeneration here!

I will always support a fellow Dem!

[Justice]

26. Cake is There; Candles Are All Lit

Way to Go!

Thanks Tom, I was about to post the correct information, and saw your fine job!

[Jerseycoa]

20. What are you talking about?

The cake has almost $146,000 in burning candles. I know you deaniacs are the billionaires of the primary race, but don't pick at this. It's really so new money.

[BootinUp]

24. Clark's birthday cake

his birthday is the 23rd. This fundraiser is only funds raised from the blog page. The goal was 118,000 it is now at 155,000 with nearly 5 days remaining.

The million dollar challenge is at 162K.

The campaign originally said they hoped for 4th ro 3rd in NH. I think a strong third is doing fine because all states after that will be more equal in campaigning time spent.

[Patriot_Spear]

28. That's super! Good for Wesley!

I stand corrected.

[Zero Division]

29. NVM

N/T

[Patriot_Spear]

33. My goof. Sorry! n/t

[Lefta Dissenter]

9. Well, considering just a couple of weeks ago,

Clark was in a position to HOPE for 3rd, and now he's battling for 2nd, I think that it doesn't spell a defeat if Clark DOES finish in third. It will be an enormous boost if he does make it to 2nd, however. And you make quite a mighty leap from discussing a possible 3rd in NH to 3rd in every primary.

I think that the recent food fights are more a result of the types of personalities working for the campaigns, rather than any sort of connection to the real race. Some people just can't let a good joke go unpunished, and that can lead to some great fun and entertainment, but that's not what wins the votes. (closest thing to smiley throwing food that I could find)

[Patriot_Spear]

12. My question assumes Clarks loss to Kerry...

I'd really like to know your opinion on what then for his campaign.

[Lefta Dissenter]

22. Well, as I said,

Considering that just a couple of weeks ago, Clark was in a position to HOPE for 3rd, and now he's battling for 2nd, I think that it doesn't spell a defeat if Clark DOES finish in third. It will be an enormous boost if he does make it to 2nd, however.

Are you asking what we'll SAY, what we'll DO? We'll probably say something like, "That sucks," and move on to the next primaries. Do you really think that, as committed as Wes Clark and his supporters are, if he doesn't exceed expectations by 200 miles, then we'll all just pack our bags and go home crying? He's battling both Dean and Kerry in their own backyards, so it definitely is not the end of the world or the campaign if he doesn't whomp their asses (despite the great hopes and desires of some other candidates' supporters).

[Patriot_Spear]

34. I'm just asking how you think it will effect his overall strategy...

Will he change his message? Will he focus on other candidates? Will he focus on fundraising? That kind of stuff.

[Lefta Dissenter]

39. His current strategy is long-term

not based on any one primary or its results. I would guess that we won't see a change either way, whether he finishes second or third.

Of course, they haven't called me lately to fill me in on the campaign strategy, so I guess we'll all just have to wait and see what unfolds in the months to come.

[Patriot_Spear]

44. Thanks for your input! n/t

[OKNancy]

54. Focus on fundraising?

His fundraising is going to knock your socks off.

[mikehiggins]

71. No.

Seriously, we saw in 2000 how shifting messages to shore up supposed weak points can be disastrous to a candidate. This year, even odd comments made at random can be served up against you, as Madelaine Albright just learned. Clark's message is primarily, it seems to me, on National Security and I'll be very surprised if that isn't the major issue next year, particularly as this 9/11 controversy simmers in the background.

I imagine that in the first weeks of the campaign Clark arrived at the message he wanted to run on, and I think he'll stick with it to the end.

Of course, if tomorrow he decides to become a Scientologist or something, everything I wrote above will no longer be operative :^)

[janx]

13. I'm surprised Kerry hasn't come after Clark,

or the other way around.

[mikehiggins]

73. Well, janx, what exactly can he come at Clark on? Waco?

The problem with attacking Clark is that you either have to outright lie, or you have to come up with something new.

And you have to be careful with what you say, because Clark has made a point of NOT attacking the other Democratic candidates.

More to the point, with a thousand hours left to play in, what are you going to accuse him of? His past is an open book, he has no secret girlfriends, he's oxycontin free, etc., etc. and so forth.

And Clarks supporters are not going to flock to Kerry anymore than they would flock to Dean. Most, I would suspect, would sit out the rest of the primary season and then just come out to help whoever the eventual nominee wound up to be.

The people Kerry has to reach are the voters, and they just don't seem to be listening as well as he would like.

Not our problem.

[blm]

14. Did Dean campaign tell Deanies to foment aggravation between Kerry & Clark

supporters?

I'd say we are more aligned than you'd care to know.

[Patriot_Spear]

16. Clark Supports Kerry? Can I quote you on that?

I think that's great for Kerry! I like Wesley Clark.

[blm]

23. Did I say that? No. Why pretend I did?

I said the supporters of both candidates are aligned more than you realize. We recognize the simple truth about a strong national security ticket.

[Patriot_Spear]

30. Okay, if you say so. n/t

[blm]

38. Try reading accurately.

It helps.

[Patriot_Spear]

40. Sure. whatever. n/t

[DoveTurnedHawk]

46. blm's Correct

The candidates themselves also have quite a bit of personal affection and respect for one another.

DTH

[Patriot_Spear]

48. Hey, that's great. n/t

[DoveTurnedHawk]

49. Oops

Deleted.

DTH

[Patriot_Spear]

52. So third place is good enough for Clark...

for right now. And you expect him to move up as the field narrows?

[DoveTurnedHawk]

55. Basically Yes

I very much want the expectations in NH to REMAIN at 3rd place, because that increases the potential bounce he might have.

I'm not sure how much the field is going to narrow before NH, though. I had been hoping Lieberman would drop out, but I'm not so sure now. And even if Gephardt gets blown out in Iowa, he's almost certain to hang in at least until 2/3, so he can pick up delegates in his home state of Missouri before calling it a day.

DTH

[mzmolly]

31. But both candidates represent that in a "superficial" way...

thus the dilema. :shrug: This is why the Clark campaign hurt Kerry most of all IMHO.

Ok by for now.

[mzmolly]

17. It's in the papers today BLM, that's why it's on everyones mind...

Sheesh :eyes: :tinfoilhat:

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/12/18/mgrind.day.thursday/

[dajabr]

35. Wow, can't believe I'm getting involved in this...

Just one question...

If Clark overtakes Kerry for #2 in NH, will the cooperation "pact" survive?

What if only one side (Kerry) honors this pact as it goes down the wire?

Blindside? Seriously, Kerry is my number 2 and I'd like to see it come down to Kerry/Dean for all the marbles.

[Patriot_Spear]

37. See, I'm on the other side- Clark is my number two...

But I like Kerry a lot!

[dajabr]

58. You'll have to work on me about Clark...

Just in case he pulls past Kerry. :-)

[janx]

61. That's politics, as they say.

And some of them can keep it civil while others just don't seem to be able to.

Things are going to get interesting in the next month and a half.

[LuminousX]

45. Uhm, it happens to be a key story right now

And since it is different than the stuff we've rehashed a hundred different times, it is interesting to think about. Yes, there is a bit of arrogance involved because it is the Dean voters speculation that Dean has locked New Hampshire, so now we are thinking about South Carolina and Iowa. The story now, for New Hampshire is 'who is going to take second.'

It is Kerry vs. Clark. (That would be a good ticket, Kerry/Clark - though I don't trust Clark too much.)

So we speculate. Nothing insidious about it.

[TLM]

75. Yeah the all powerful Dean commanded from on high

and the Kerry and Clark campaigns jumped to start insultign each other wih zero bars and chicken wings.


How dare Dean force Kerry and Clark to bicker with each other in a grandstanding way with food?!

[DakotaDemocrat]

15. In either case...

...both candidates - given their financial position - are going to be in the race for the long haul. I must admit, when Kerry was reeling a few weeks ago, I thought that was the end of things for his campaign.

Clark getting third in NH - expected behind two locals. Anything lower than that, and things start getting a little murky for us.

Maybe I'll put up the same post when Oklahoma starts getting a little closer...Clark beats Kerry, then what?

[John_H]

18. only in the world of media whores are Iowa and new hampshire

"key". Since they are smarter than us, they think it's all 'merica can understand but we only have to look back to the '92, '96 and '00 primary seanson for proof that this is not so. Not having time to give our nation's youth a history lesson, late feb-march (NY, CA and an equal number of delegates from the South)will determine who will be left to slug it out with Dean in midwest and west.

What Dean fans have to ask themselves is what their strategy is going to be when Lieberman bites the dust (he's already stopped paying his staff) If Dean wins IA w/ his perfect storm troopers Gephardt's toast. He's got a ton of union organizationa and money. Think he's going to send it Dean's way?

Beleive me, the reason I hate to see Dean supporters act like they have a lock is because it shows just how violently Rove will be able to snap them out of their complacency.

Sure, Trippi wants you to think your guy is inevitable. That's his job. But beleive me, he knows it ain't so.

Count the delegates.

I can tell you exactly what the wingnut media story line is--Clark dissapears as a result of being blacked out by them and Rove, Dean beats Kerry soundy, then Chimp assumes his rightful place on the throne with a huge mandate. Then their antics in 2000 and throughout the war will have been validated by public consent.

[Patriot_Spear]

21. I'm not so sure I like being called a 'storm trooper'. That's kind of rude

Can we try to avoid the hyperbole please? I can attest to the fact that they're serious about the civility rule- and I really don't appreciate being referred to as a 'storm trooper.'

[John_H]

77. No offense intended . The dean campaign has called their activists...

troopers and their flood of activists into IA as the perfect storm. I was jovially cobining the two dean created terms. Sorry if you took offense.

[mzmolly]

27. Well there are RW strategists who disagree, thus all the panic about

Dean.

"As you see, Dean can win even without Florida. Furthermore, of the 23 states that make up these 270 electoral votes, Bush only won two in 2002, squeaking by in Nevada but only getting 49.5% of the total vote, and winning West Virginia with 51.9%. With no significant opposition to Harry Reid in the Senate race and the nuclear repository issue alive and kicking, Nevada is going to be tough for the President. And West Virginia is a very Democrat state, where Dean’s willingness to work with the NRA on gun owners’ rights will go a long way toward deflecting the “liberal” charge."

Pardon the RW lingo, but you get my meaning.

http://tinyurl.com/ufiw

:hi:

[GobGoober]

32. Kerry needs to look at Clark as his #1 competition

and vice versa.

Personally, I like Clark, but Kerry could keep him from beating Dean.

And I've noticed, since Clark got in the race, Kerry's fortunes have dropped.

This doesn't amount to a hill of beans for me though because I'm not eligible to vote in the Democratic primary, just the general election. I'm not a democrat or a republican.

[Patriot_Spear]

36. I tend to agree-

They're both great contenders for the number two spot- how will a Kerry win / Clark defeat effect their strategy?

[janx]

43. It could change everything.

And it's probably inevitable at this point.

[TexasPatriot]

41. if clark withdrew from the race

I would support Kerry.

[Patriot_Spear]

42. What do think would make Clark withdraw?

3rd place in what percentage of the primary? Kerry obviously has his eye on beating Clark.

[Tom Rinaldo]

47. What?

4th or worse in NH, followed by poor showings most everywhere else the week after would be a real problem for Clark. I know that you want Clark out of the way to help Dean's chances of walking away with the nomination, but wishing don't make it so. Ain't gonna happen. It is possible that both Kerry and Clark might emerge from NH viable.

[Patriot_Spear]

50. You're wrong- Clarks' my number two.

I challenge you to find a post where I've said anything otherwise.

I like Clark. I prefer Dean.

[Tom Rinaldo]

60. I sincerely apologise

I was double tasking and not tracking who said what well enough. I just read your post that I am responding to here, I was busy working an another that I just posted. I take back all the sneaky inferences. Otherwise I did give my honest opinion of everything that is going on. Hope it's helpful.

[Patriot_Spear]

62. No problem. n/t

[dajabr]

64. Nice post,Tom - a stand up thing to do! NT

[Tom Rinaldo]

59. To be more specific

If Clark came in 4th in NH, Clark would have to soundly beat whoever came in 3rd during the contests held the following week. An example might be if Gephardt got a quick bounce from a good showing in Iowa and edged out Clark in NH for third. Clark would then have to clearly out poll Gephardt in the following contests.

The importance of Iowa and NH is obvious and significant but transitory. Lots of people have done very won in NH and lost the nomination after stumbling in later contests. Very few delegates are won in NH. The trick is to emerge from NH viable to compete in the follow up and much more delegate rich primaries. A lot of that has to do with the all the ground work done by the relative campaigns ahead of time in preparation for upcoming contests. And a lot of that has to do with money in the bank to buy TV ads in the larger states during the week following NH. Clark is in good shape heading into those follow up contests.

[TexasPatriot]

56. i dont think clark will leave

he's going to have a buttpile of money, and his campaign isnt spending any of it yet. He could outspend everyone between now and supertuesday and still have more cash left in the bank.

if he were to leave - it would have to be something weird. Say Edwards came in second in Iowa, turned that into 2nd in NH, won SC, and became a media darling. Then you might see Clark pull out.

It's sort of like asking 'what would make Dean withdraw'... they both have tens of thousands of grassroots people running all over the country with a pile of cash. i dont think the question really works.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

57. Pretty Much How I See It, Too (eom)

DTH

[DoveTurnedHawk]

51. Current NH Expectations Are Kerry #2 and Clark #3

So if Clark finishes #3, it hurts him not at all, especially since his good showings will be in the 2/3 primaries.

If Clark finishes #2, then he beats the expectations and gets a bounce, unless Dean wins a clear majority and/or Clark's #2 finish is still below 15%.

DTH

[Patriot_Spear]

53. See my reply to your 'oops' . n/t

[robbedvoter]

63. We overtook native son#1, working on #2 and #3

remember, New Englanders - we are playing ON YOUR FIELD!

[Spazito]

65. Wow! I just want to compliment all the posters on this thread!

It is the MOST civil primary thread I have seen on DU! Congratulations!

[Patriot_Spear]

66. Hey, I like ALL our Dem candidates... it doesn't have to be a mudfest...

Just my two cents.

[w13rd0]

67. Yeah...

...just because I have a preferred candidate, doesn't mean I think the other candidates are the anti-Christ. That title is reserved for the fraud occupying the people's house.

[mikehiggins]

69. Kerry beats Clark in NH, then we move on

Interesting that there appears to be a growing consensus that Clark should beat Kerry in NH. I don't get that at all. (of course I haven't a clue what the "chicken wings" and "zero bars" are all about either)

It seems to me, as an ordinary guy who's been involved in political campaigns for several decades, that Clark will do well to place third in NH and even showing up in the vote tally in Iowa will be more than amazing.

If you take a campaign that started out with no money, no staff and no real chance and end up in the money in the first couple of primaries you've done a fantastic job.

Kerry beat Clark? Why would that even be a surprise, let alone a problem? Getting beaten by Edwards or Lieberman would be a problem, or any of the other candidates. Dean is the "chosen one" anointed by Al Gore to save us all from ourselves, and Kerry is the "seasoned one" with years of experience in the Senate who all reasonable men should support.

Now, if Clark beats Kerry, that, I think would be a problem for Kerry. If Kerry beats Clark, I doubt it'll slow anything down an iota.

[tsipple]

70. What margin of victory would be at play?

For example, if Kerry beat Clark by ten points in New Hampshire, or even fifteen, would that be a factor? Five points?

How about the reverse? What margin would have what effect?

There are some interesting dynamics in New Hampshire, and it is fascinating to watch.

[Patriot_Spear]

72. Good point- what is the margin here?

I'd say it would have at least 10 percentage points to be a clear victory for one or the other.

[retyred]

74. You wake up

and find out you wet yourself for nothing....It was all just a dream.


retyred in fla
“good night paul, wherever you are”
So I read this book

[KaraokeKarlton]

76. I think it's hard to say

But the biggest story of the primary is going to be which one of these two knock the other one out first to emerge as Dean's challenger. I don't think either one of them can beat Dean, but since it's looking like Dean's going to be unstoppable at this point, this battle for second makes things a little more interesting.