POLL: Hillary loses to top three Repukes, Obama beats them all

[jefferson_dem]

...just more evidence that Hillary is un-electable...

Results from the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll
June 7-10, 2007 (2008 Presidential race and national issues)

...

Hillary - 41
McCain - 45

Hillary - 41
Romney - 43

Hillary - 39
Ghouliani - 49

***

Obama - 47
McCain - 35

Obama - 50
Romney - 34

Obama - 46
Ghouliani - 41

****

Edwards - 40
McCain - 45

Edwards - 46
Romney - 32

Edwards - 46
Ghouliani -43

****

Also, 18 percent of Dems say they will never vote for Hillary, under any circumstances. That is true for only six percent for Edwards and five percent for Obama.

****

http://www.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2007-06/30445335.pdf

[havocmom]

1. Posse will be along anytime now

:popcorn:

[Grandrose]

50. That is for sure!

What a brave soul!:hide:

[BlueStater]

2. I find this poll hard to believe

How can that old fool McCain be beating anyone?

[SaveElmer]

7. Why polling averages and trends are important...

Every poll has anomalies from time to time...I'm sure there is nothing wrong with this poll in terms of the numbers they got, or who they interviewed...sometimes polls just have anomalous results...which is why you have to take them in conjunction with others...if this is a blip, that will become obvious soon enough...if it is a trend the same. My suspicion is since this is pretty out of whack with others that it will prove to be an outlier...but we will see...

MyDD keeps a good poll average chart up to date...

[Bitwit1234]

56. Oh boy oh boy oh boy

Obama down from Clinton by as much as 25 points BUT he will beat the republicans. Kind of a funny poll isn't it.

[SaveElmer]

59. Polls are not necessarily predictive of final outcome...

As I have been unnecessarily been told time and time again...

[NobleCynic]

26. My first thought too n/t

[SaveElmer]

3. You have the Guiliani and Romney numbers reversed...nt

[jefferson_dem]

9. Thanks. n/t

[rockymountaindem]

4. And yet...

oy veh!

[ElizabethDC]

5. Well, as Obama supporters remind me all the time

the election is months away.

Additionally, these are nationwide matchups and we have this funky electoral college thing that has a pretty huge effect on the outcome.

[Kahuna]

36. Right now Hillary is losing two blue states to Rudy. Namely, NJ and PA..

This has been a consistent response. So tell me, what red states will she pick up to make up for NJ and PA?

[rinsd]

43. Rudy is beating all contenders in those states(at least according to Quinnipac).

Assuming those results remain set (which is foolish), how are Obama and Edwards going to make up for those losses + NY?

[TeamJordan23]

6. Hillary just has too many negatives

Losing to Flip Flop Romney should be a wake up call.

[emilyg]

8. Doesn't mean a thing.

[ElizabethDC]

10. Hillary leads Romney, Giuliani, and McCain among independents

McCain - 34
Clinton - 40

Romney - 34
Clinton - 42

Giuliani - 34
Clinton - 43

same link as in OP.

[jefferson_dem]

11. Those numbers show some promise.

There are other interesting digits in this poll. It's one of the few where Hillary's lead on Obama doesn't expand when Gore is not included (it shrinks from 11 points to 10 points with only Hillary, Obama, and Edwards).

[sellitman]

12. So where was Obama's vote today?

Sorry but he let us down.

I'm not impressed

[jefferson_dem]

13. That's true. He didn't cast a meaningless vote on a meaningless "sense of the Senate" resolution.

What was he thinking? :sarcasm:

[sellitman]

21. Doing your elected job is meaningless?

I see.


:sarcasm:

[robinlynne]

24. I feel as you do.

[TeamJordan23]

28. Would you like to explain Hillary's Iraq War vote?

nt.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

32. How about comparing HRC and Obama's plans for Iraq?

;)

[sellitman]

38. She isn't even on my "B" list

Obama was. (Past tense)

[Double T]

14. Since Hillary and Obama are BOTH unelectable..........

'WE' should all throw our support to the ONLY true Democrat that has announced he is running for President, Dennis Kucinch.

[illinoisprogressive]

18. Obama is very electable with indies and Reagan Dems racing to embrace him.

you need more than just one party. You need to get others to vote for you as well. he is the only one who is getting people who went to reagan and stayed and indies in large numbers.

[John Q. Citizen]

31. I'm voting for the Democrat. The rest of the pretenders are scared of bush,

[TeddyKGB]

48. You meant that as a joke, right?

I like Dennis just fine, but I'm more electable than he is.

[Double T]

53. Then we'll elect you. One question?? Are you a true Democrat..........

or a corporate ass kissing congressional democrat?

[zulchzulu]

15. Polling information for review

MoE means margin of error. The larger the MoE, the less credible the poll. If a poll has a MoE of 5%, that means there is a 5% swing in either direction, hence someone having a poll number of 25% from a poll with a MoE of 5% could indeed either be between 20% and 30%.

From the PDF (my comments in orange):

The Los Angeles Times / Bloomberg Poll contacted 1,183 adults nationwide by telephone June 7 through 10, 2007. Included are 1,056 registered voters, 449 Democratic Primary voters and 408 Republican Primary voters.

Note: this is a pretty good sampling size. I'd like to know WHEN the poll calling was made.

"Primary Voters" include both registered party members and eligible others who plan to vote in the party primaries. The 2008 presidential election match-up questions were split among two random sub-groups of 513 and 543 registered voters respectively. Telephone numbers were chosen randomly from a list of all exchanges in the nation, allowing listed and unlisted numbers to be contacted. Multiple attempts were made to contact each number. Adults were weighted slightly to conform with their respective census proportions by sex, ethnicity, age, education, and national region.

The margin of sampling error for all adults and all registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Note: this is a good MoE.

For Democratic and Republican primary voters respectively it is plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Note: this is NOT a good MoE.

For each of the odd/even subgroups, the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Note: this is a marginal MoE.

For certain other subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results may also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

[Major Hogwash]

16. Geezus, she even loses to Romney, the Mormon.

Man, that speaks volumes.

[illinoisprogressive]

17. I am one who will never ever vote for Hillary. period.

as a lifelong dem who has seen every loser chosen since Mondale, I am sick of our party always chosing the least liked and the worse choice to run. I will leave the party if she is nominated

[ElizabethDC]

19. Dems always choose the "least liked and worse choice to run"

yeah, Bill Clinton really sucked and nobody liked him - although, strangely, he was elected twice. Al Gore also - yeah, what a bad choice. IIRC, he won, too, though. Hmmmm.

[roguevalley]

29. I guess I remember all the ones who never won too. I feel like this

has the same vibe. That is what he's saying. It is and always was hard to be a dem. Sometimes we just have our heads up our butts. Dukakis ring a bell?

[SaveElmer]

20. Why not just move along now...nt

[emilyg]

22. 'bye

[nevergiveup]

25. I do not believe

you represent most Obama supporters. If she receives the nomination I will be upset because I believe she will have many problems defeating anyone in the general but I would work for her and most of the other Obama supporters I know feel the same. Compared to Rudy, Mit, Freddie or Johnny she is obviously the better alternative if you are progressive in your beliefs.

[bling bling]

34. I do believe

you are correct.

[Ethelk2044]

62. I will not vote for her

[Hawaii Hiker]

54. Why?....She's better than ANY Republican

I to, have reservations about Hillary, but there is NO WAY I'd ever vote for a Republican...This country can't afford any more Republican presidents for quite some time...

Here's a scenario that hopefully will change your mind....It's June 2009 & John Paul Stevens and/or Ruth Bader Ginsburg decides to retire at the end of term, who would you want to name the replacement??????....I sure as hell don't want a Republican making that appointment, that is a terrifying thought...:scared:

I much rather have HRC or any Democrat make that appointment as opposed to some psychotic conservative president...

[Tejanocrat]

23. I like Hillary fine, but she will KILL our whole ballot top to bottom here in Texas.

[AtomicKitten]

27. there is no question Obama appears to have the best shot

I don't know what that means exactly strategically and how that impacts the rest of the race; just commenting on the trend in polling.

[freesqueeze]

30. I hope this isn't an Obama PUSH POLL

I'm starting to seriously believe the guy can win.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

33. "18 percent of Dems say they will never vote for Hillary, under any circumstances."

She is unelectable. She cannot even retain a substantial share of her party's voters. HRC cannot make that ground up among GOP defectors and independents.

[Citizen Kang]

35. People don't like Hillary

she might be the most qualified of anyone in the race as of right now, but people don't like her...

I'm a hard core liberal, but I don't like Hillary. Sorry.

[Kahuna]

37. HIllary would be Kerry redux. No matter how bad the repuke is, you

can't force enough people who don't like her to vote for her. We DEMS never learn the right lessons.

[flpoljunkie]

39. David Gergen said yesterday on MSNBC, Hillary will unite the base--the Republican base.

We ought to think long and hard about nominating Hillary Clinton.

[ElizabethDC]

58. He also said that he thinks she can overcome her unfavorables. n/t

[Kahuna]

61. I live in northern NJ. Should be HIllary country, right.. So every white

suburban women I speak too across party ideologies say they will never vote for her. Most of the black women I speak to say they will vote for her. The problem is, blacks are only about 15% of the population. So while she may be popular with black voters, she has been consistently polling BEHIND Rudy in THIS bluest of the blue states.

[mnhtnbb]

40. Rasmussen has Edwards beating McCain 48 %to 41% in mid-May

and is still giving only Edwards the edge in beating all leading
Repub candidates as of their report yesterday.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/favorables/election_2008_democratic_candidates_running_in_2008_presidential_election

[rinsd]

41. And yet Hillary remains the top choice of Democrats.

Her lead increases substantiallly when that is just self identified Liberal Democrats though it narrows among Independents.

[illinoisprogressive]

42. Her base is the dem women and usually they are the ones who answer polls.

that is why she is in the lead. but this democratic woman hates her.

[rinsd]

44. That's good for Hillary as women were a solid majority of the voters in 2004 (nt)

[draft_mario_cuomo]

46. Mondale and Dukakis were also the top choice of Dem voters

Primary strength means nothing in November.

[rinsd]

49. Clinton, Gore and Kerry were the top choices as well.

"Primary strength means nothing in November."

And GE strength before the primaries means even less.

[newportdadde]

45. I wonder if the Bradley effect would come into play here with these polls?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

The term Bradley effect or Wilder effect refers to a phenomenon which has led to inaccurate voter opinion polls in some American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate.<1><2><3> Specifically, there have been instances in which statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters in advance of an election that they are either genuinely undecided, or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, but those voters exhibit a different behavior when actually casting their ballots

In the 1989 race for Mayor of New York, a poll conducted just over a week before the election showed black candidate David Dinkins holding an 18-point lead over white candidate Rudy Giuliani. Four days before the election, a new poll showed that lead to have shrunk, but still standing at 14 points. On the day of the election, Dinkins prevailed by only two points.<7>

[draft_mario_cuomo]

47. If it does, we are really effed!

nt

[MGKrebs]

51. Yikes. Good thing for Hillary the election wasn't last week!

[ejbr]

52. As MUCH as I dislike Hillary,

she will easily wipe the floor in debate with any of those bozos. Once someone begins to call them on their idiotic positions, she will most certainly get a bump. Then all we would have to worry about is having fair elections. Remember, Kerry wiped the floor with Bush in ALL three debates, but the repug election stealing apparatus overwhelmed the will of the people.

[ShortnFiery]

55. That's why O'Reilly of FOX news defends her - that's why Murdoch does fundraisers!

Yes, there's no way IN HELL that the right wing will not unleash "holy hell" on HRC due to all that accumulated baggage. :shrug:

Face it folks, she's a lightening rod who can NOT win The General Election?

[Czolgosz]

57. Hillary is ballot poison for the whole ticket from dog catcher to governor in the South

[Colobo]

60. Let's all relax and see how things unfold. It's too early.

[mckeown1128]

63. Gobama!!!

This looks good.