"Given the historic nature of having a female Democrat running against a socially liberal Catholic Republican, it is remarkable how similar it appears the results would be to the 2004 election in which two white males representing the mainstream politics of the two parties faced off. In that election, President George W. Bush, the Republican, beat Sen. John Kerry, the Democrat, by about a three-point margin. (This comparison is made using Gallup's final pre-election poll from November of 2004, based on the subset of "likely voters" who most closely represent the electorate. Of the last six presidential elections, the results based on likely voters have only once deviated from the results based on registered voters by more than a few points.)
Most notably, it appears Clinton would run no stronger among women than Kerry did in 2004 -- or, for that matter, than Al Gore did when running against Bush in 2000. On average in 2007, women prefer Clinton over Giuliani by a six-point margin -- 53% to 47%, respectively. That is not much different from women's four-point preference for Kerry over Bush in 2004, or the eight-point preference for Gore over Bush in 2000.
A Clinton-Giuliani race may be more striking for its impact on the male vote. Men favor Giuliani over Clinton by a 16-point margin in 2007. That compares with a 12-point lead among men for Bush over Kerry among 2004, and a 7-point lead among men for Bush over Gore in 2000."
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=27850Gallup is only the oldest and most respected name in the polling industry, right?
2008
(2007 aggregated polling based on registered voters)
National adults
Clinton Giuliani
46% 51%
(Edit to add combined result.)