Gallup: Last weeks Gallup showing Obama catching Hillary an aberration

[SaveElmer]

The Gallup Poll's Frank Newport suggests the last survey showing Sen. Barack Obama catching Sen. Hillary Clinton was just an aberration.

New polling data from several survey organizations – including pending data from Gallup -- make it clear that Sen. Hillary Clinton is maintaining or strengthening her lead for the presidential nomination over Sen. Barack Obama among Democrats. Our early June USA Today/Gallup poll showed the two tied, as discussed here and here. But that finding apparently did not signify a significant change in the structure of the race. The latest polls from the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal/NBC show Clinton in her accustomed role as leader when Democrats are asked whom they want to be their party’s nominee. It looks as if the June 1-3 USA Today/Gallup poll either picked up a short term change, or as noted here, was a function of unusual sampling which happened to pick up Democrats who were more pro-Obama than the underlying population.

"We have a Gallup poll now in the field, with results to be reported early next week. Preliminary indications are that this poll will find Clinton back in her typical leadership position as she has been for the most part this year."

http://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2007/06/notes_from_the_.html

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/06/15/clinton_back_on_top.html

[Captain Hilts]

1. Gallup does not hold their survey population as consistent as other pollsters, so...

there is a lot more amplitude to changes.

[WI_DEM]

2. Great we will probably end up nominating the candidate in '08 with

the biggest negatives and least appeal to Independents.

[PurityOfEssence]

8. It's a nightmarish replay of the '84 campaign

They top-loaded the primaries so the powers-that-be in the Democratic Party could shove Mondale down our throats. Still, Hart almost took it. It's sad; Hart really could have had a chance against Reagan that year, and remember: the Donna Rice incident wasn't until '88.

Meanwhile, the major media touts Hillary even to the extent of assholes like O'Reilly defending her, and they go out of their way to either ridicule or ignore John Edwards.

Now we've top-loaded the primaries to such a degree that the nominee will probably be apparent by the first week in February. So here we are: in less than nine months, we'll know who it is and the media can then go into an endless drumbeat to destroy the person for the next nine months before the election. Stupidity upon stupidity, and so many people will say "who could have seen that coming?"

I only hope I'm wrong. The only candidate who can peel off a southern state or two is Edwards.

In all fairness (and I don't much like Hillary at all) she did handle herself very well in the New Hampshire debate and I started to feel that maybe she isn't unelectable. There's more to life than just getting a Dem in the White House; getting the best one in there is more important.

[Wilms]

3. "...a function of unusual sampling ..."

LOL!

That sooo reminds of the 2004 Exit Poll debacle.

[jefferson_dem]

4. Maybe not so much of an aberration there, Frank. Obama is down by only four

according to the most recently released poll (from Harris).

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3318044

[LibDemAlways]

5. Jeez ...I feel like the media and pollsters

are foisting Hillary on us before a single primary vote has been cast. Nothing like the repukes deciding who the Dem nominee will be.

Perhaps the only person who can stop this juggernaut is the guy with the initials AG. I hope he's paying close attention.

[Wilms]

6. I find your argument compelling. n/t

[SaveElmer]

7. Are you saying polling organizqations are lying about t heir results...

Sounds to me like people here are simply disappointed and looking for an explanation for the fact their guy is not gaining traction other than the obvious fact that Hillary is running the better campaign, and is the more popular Democrat at this point...

[LibDemAlways]

11. I don't have a "guy" or woman in this thing. I'm not

currently supporting anybody. I'm not saying I couldn't or wouldn't eventually support Hillary. I just have the feeling that her negatives outweigh her positives on the national scene and it would be hard for me to be enthusiastic about her.

[Colobo]

9. Let's all relax.

[Kingstree]

10. This is full of B S

They want you to believe that but anyone who has an intelligent mind knows better. Lately the one leading is the one who loses the election. That is the reason why Obama's team does not want to be the front runner now.