Dean supporters. Tell me why I shouldn't be worried about your guy

[Bucky]

I'm not interested in a bash thread. I just would like Dean people to make the positive case why I should not be worried about Dean's electibility. Here's why I'm worried:

With the "gay marriage" non-issue not dredged up yet and the country having a strong tradition of rejecting candidates who promise to raise taxes in favor of candidates who promise to lower taxes, Dean's numbers against the idiot are already pretty bad.



Essentially he's 20 points down among the general populace and loses independents by more than a 2 to 1 ratio. A recent CBS Poll has Bush against a nameless Democrat at 49%-40%. When that same population is given the concrete choice of Dean vs Bush, the Democratic votes drop five points while Bush jumps from 49% to 55% the second Dean's name is mentioned.

A similar ABC poll showed similar results:
* Bush vs "the Democratic nominee" is 51%-41%.
* Bush vs Howard Dean is 56%-38%. (ie, Dean's name loses 3 points and pushes Bush up another 5 points)

What is it about Dean that will turn these numbers around? I'm not anti-Dean. I'd vote for him in a second (and try a second time) if it were November. But his name seems to be a turn off to independents so far. How is he going to over come this? Inquiring minds...

[Norquist Nemesis]

1. Polls like this mean little

because Dean, Clark, Gephardt, and any other democrats will always have their 'vote' diluted until the field is narrowed. Most likely, after a couple of primaries, people will start paying attention and making some decisions.

[WiseMen]

6. Not Quite True: Note Even When Bush Down. He Beats Dean

Dean 20 point deficit to Bush is After he has received and incredible amont of "Miracle Man" publicity. In september, before the Powers had
given Dean the mantle of inevitability, but the economy was bust
and the War was more terrifying, Dean was still trounced by Bush.
In fact of the three leader, Dean was the only one Bush easily beat.
Dean's numbers are not going up vs Bush. They are going down.


USAT/CNN/Gallup
9/21/03
-----------------------------------Bush--49-----------Dean----46
-----------------------------------Bush--46-----------Clark----49
-----------------------------------Bush--47-----------Kerry----48

[stickdog]

13. All of these differences are within the poll's margin of error.

Plus, it's 11 months before the election and most of America still hasn't heard of Dean, much less from him.

[polpilot]

26. I've had no surprises as Dean has buried the competition & even less

concern with Bush. Dean is 15 pts. ahead of where he needs to be to destroy Bush along with the repub machine. Oh I know I'll hear the crap about USELESS polls on other candidates in the recent past but this election is about the return of a true two party system. Once Dean is the nom he will destroy Bush & Co. from now until November.

This country has NEVER seen a political race like this and when Dean gets nightly exposure he will crucify this warmongering, greedy band of Repub whores. Few seem to realize that Dean still has the gloves on. They will come off and America hasn't been this prepared for a leader since General Washington.

Dean '04...

[stickdog]

2. Everything Bush has done has hurt this country. He's sold us down the

river at every turn. And he's made enemies out of our friends and worse enemies out of our enemies.

Dean is the man who can look good attacking him from the left on Bush's dangerous, murderous and profiteering foreign policy as well as from the right on Bush's reckless government growth and deficit spending. Dean can also credibly attack Bush on the cost of Iraq, the environment, education, jobs and especially healthcare -- all issues on which the vast majority of Americans already agree with Dean.

And what have you got against Dean again: civil unions (who cares except radical right bigots?) and a budget busting tax cut for the rich (the average American saved less than $10 a month)?

Please.

[POed_Ex_Repub]

3. Because Bush will implode...

It's just a matter of timing... Right now he's riding high on Saddam's capture and the 10,000+ Dow... A couple of problems with that

1) The number of casualties in Iraq continues to grow, with no stability in sight. And after the Saddam capture, people are expecting a quick return of their troops, something that is unlikely to happen.

2) The job market isn't improving. The stock market may be up, but average people aren't relying on stocks for thier income. What few jobs are out there are low paying. IT and Manufacturing are especially hit hard with no end in sight.

People aren't going to ignore these things forever, it's merely a matter of WHEN. Bush is trying to stretch things out until after the election, but even if he succeeds in that, he may wish he hadn't. Whoever wins is going to inherit a BIG mess!

So you see.. it's not so much that I think Dean can do it (although I do) it's more that I think that Bush can't.

:kick:

[WiseMen]

10. Tragic: Dean Trashes other Dems, But Need Bush Disaster to Win GE.

It is crazy for Democrats to be desperately hoping for a
national disaster in order to be competitive in the General Election.

Doesn't it make more sense to field a better candidate rather than
put forward our worst candidate hoping for some nuclear-level
disaster for Dems to win the Presidency.

PLEASE STOP THE MADNESS!!

[POed_Ex_Repub]

14. The disaster already happened

Or haven't you noticed the record deficits and troops searching for non-existant WMD's? (while getting picked off a few at a time) The BEST candidate is the one who recognizes these things, and actually has a plan to correct them. Remember when Dean's opposition to the war was considered "crazy"? It's basically having the guy who's openly stating what we already know to be true. When (or if) the general public sees through the Bush spin machine... well, that's the trick now isn't it?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

16. Yes. Please STOP!

[mouse7]

20. Dean will sell your children into slavery!

Dean will sell your children into slavery and use the proceed to pay for gay marriages all over the country. Dean is especially looking forward to selling your children to Micheal Jackson.

Vote Clark. He won't sell your children as slaves.

[Brian_Expat]

4. A few weeks after the Democratic convention. . .

Dukakis had a 12%+ lead over Bush Sr. That was a poll taken after a lot of campaigning, yet things still changed.

A general poll taken almost one year before the real election takes place, and before most people are even thinking about the race, is pretty meaningless. Ask yourself less about the candidate's name recognition and more about the strength of the candidate's ideas. Who most closely matches your views for America? Vote for that person with confidence. If we all do that, we can be proud and we can use our Democratic campaign as an opportunity to educate people about the issues and win them to our side.

Remember, there's no easy road no matter who we end up running.

[newyawker99]

25. Hi Brian_Expat!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[thinkahead]

5. Here's one example

http://lacitybeat.com/article.php?id=499&IssueNum=29

To understand the Howard Dean phenomenon, you have to break out of the usual paradigm of candidates running for office and look beyond to people like Kimmy Cash. Cash is a 28-year-old punk from Ontario, California, who first heard about Howard Dean at an anti-war rally back in February. After meeting him in late September – by crashing the VIP section of a Dean event at Union Station – she decided he was the coolest politician she had ever come across, and determined right there she was going to help him become the next president of the United States. Her mission: To politicize America’s two million or so punks, most of whom are young, disaffected, and would never normally dream of voting for anyone. The way she figured it, if America’s punks got their act together – decided, in her words, to stop saying “fuck the system” and tried instead to change it – they would be numerous enough to tip the entire balance of national politics.

The night she got home from Union Station, she set up an unofficial website called punxfordean.com. Soon, she was spending her weekend nights roving the punk venues of the Inland Empire – places like Gotham and Lyrics, located in and around San Bernardino – to distribute flyers and spread the word. And the message caught on. Spectacularly.

Three months on, she has a staggering 13,000 volunteers in all 50 states, Howard Dean tattoos on both her forearms, and is busy planning a nationwide series of concerts to get both bands and punk fans committed to the cause. Everyone who attends the concerts will be required to register to vote, and she intends to have registration forms on hand for anyone who has not done so. “Nobody’s ever tapped into this demographic before, and it kicks ass,” she said. “People are signing up all the time, and I’m getting 60 or 70 new e-mails each day from people who say they love it.”

What is remarkable about Cash’s campaign is that she is doing it entirely on her own. Nobody is telling her what she can or can’t do. Nobody is paying her for her efforts. The Dean campaign loves her because she is signing up new recruits from a subculture politicians have never previously bothered to address. Punk bands love her because she is creating a new outlet for their music – a compilation album of underground bands is going on sale through her website next month under the title Taking Back America. This is not just about a candidate; it is a way for people to reconnect with politics and feel they can actually have a stake in public life after decades of disillusionment, disinterest, and a growing sense of powerlessness.

This is what 1 Dean supporter did, empowered by the Dean campaign. There are countless other stories like this emerging out of this campaign. This isn't about "Hoawrd Dean". It's about his message, his ability to get out that message, his ability to take on George W. Bush using this straightforward message (which the pundits can't figure out, since they just aren't used to anything straightforward), innovative campaigning, innovative fundraising and shrewd politics.

And we do all this while being absolutely unafraid to be Democrats.

Novel idea.

[AntiCoup2K4]

19. Punks for Dean! I fucking love it!

If that unelected son of a bitch (literally) in the White House can be given credit for one thing, its the fact that he caused the rebirth of political punk rock, just like his idol Ronnie the vegetable.

[Bolo Boffin]

22. Add this to my list of reasons not to underestimate Dean

I'm worried about the gay marriage thing myself, but you won't hear me calling Dean unelectable. He's passionate and inspires this level of passion. He's tapping into something that the other candidates aren't. Rove may yet rue the day he rooted for Dean to win the nomination...

[BootinUp]

36. I have never questioned

Deans ability to attract the disaffected, pissed off, Bush haters. It is attracting the rest of the country I wonder about. An incumbent President automatically gets a few percentage point advantage unless the economy is in the dumper, and it begins to look like the economy will not hurt Bush as much next year.

[shivaji]

7. Reagan was 30 points behind Carter in early 1980, Clinton was

way behind Bush I in 1992. Does that give any clues?
If not, let me make it perfectly clear....

Right now, Dean is running for nomination, NOT AGAINST BUSH*.

And.......Dean is beating the pants out of his opponents in every primary poll. After Dean wins the nomination, he can go after the
AWOL from Texas. Watch what happens to polls in October 2004.

[WiseMen]

17. Point? Bush and McCain were Both Out-Polling Incumbent Gore 12/99

Typically, the outside party has to have popular advantage, not disadvantage, in order to withstand the power of incumbency.

Dec 13, 1999

Bush 55 Gore 42
McCain 52 Gore 44

http://www.cnn.com/1999/ALLPOLITICS/stories/12/13/cnn.poll/

And Dean has been running against Bush. He has been the personification of anti-Bush across all the media.


Reagan was viewed as a entirely unqualified candidate, but rode into the White House on the mantle of Republican "strong military" posture in the wake of the Iran Hostage Crisis.

Your post re Reagan/Carter either suggest you are ignorant of the political dynamic of the time or you are deperately searching for some evidence Dean could win.

[dsc]

21. huh?

That is just flat out false. Reagan was behind Carter until the bitter end when he pulled ahead. Clinton was up and down but going into June he was in third place behind Bush and Perot. You really shouldn't revise history. Oh and Gore won, in case you forgot.

[hellhathnofury]

8. Best campaign so far and that means alot. Plus Grass Roots.

Dean is a skilled politician who isn't afraid to fight back. He won't get Gored and we won't have to wait for him to acquire skills like Clark.

What tax cut? www.bushtax.com

[madfloridian]

9. Because I don't see Bush/other Dem there, do you?

I did see some polls, which I saved to my hard drive, which indicate there is not much difference now between Bush/Dean and Bush/Other. I will look in the morning.

There may have been a few percentage points, but not much at all. In fact in some of the later ones, he beat a couple of them out against Bush I think.

I just think this poll just compared Dean with Bush. He was already starting to move up again, and pow! here comes the orange alert.

I think it is way too early to declare him unelectable. If the others are not exciting their own party, I don't know how they will excite Republicans. I do know we have a lot of independents interested in Dean, and that will help. I don't see it in that poll, but I have seen it in others.

One poll has Dean ranging quite well in the South as well as the north.

[cryofan]

11. The question is not whether Dean is electable (he is), but instead...

....the question is, why would you want to elect Dean? He is a Republicrat with a longstanding aversion to the liberal agenda.

[dsc]

12. Several reasons

First, Dean is doing within the MOE of everyone else. Given the slightly higher Bush numbers that are inflated by an anti gay vote which is concentrated in states were sure to lose anyway, he is just fine on that score.

Second, Except for Kerry, no candidate but Dean will have money to spend in April, May. June, or July. Only Kerry and Dean who have opted out of matching funds will be able to travel, buy ads, or do anything else.

Third, His record as governor is good. He can contrast jobs gained with jobs lost. Deficits eliminated with deficits created. Debt paid down with debt run up. A enviroment which got cleaner with one that got dirtier. No Boston Harbor, no Willie Horton, and no photo ops in tanks.

Fourth, His position on guns will get enough gun vote to help him in close states that Gore lost such as Ohio WV, NV, and NH. It will also help shore up MI and PA. Bush screwing over Muslims will help MI too.

[imhotep]

15. fuck independents

The primaries are for the Democratic Party.
Worry about the morons after the nomination.

[PatrioticOhioLiberal]

32. Gee thanks

I keep telling myself that the candidate is NOT his followers, but folks like you make it more & more difficult to believe that.

Tell me the last time the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party won the White House.

[Polemonium]

40. half full or half empty

Your right Dean is not his supporters, but he is listening to them, and they in turn are opening the door to limit the effect of corporate financing.

"folks like you" well, let's take the 540,000+ thousand online supporters, and the estimated 1,000,000 who are not on line. I imagine in a group that size you could find just about what ever it was you were looking for. The question is what are you looking for? Some truly inspiring people have endorsed Dean or are working on his campaign, and the ones I've met have been great folks. Dean supporters are a mixed bag but we all share the need and the awakened hope that we can take our country back.

"Democratic wing" well Jimmy Carter gets my vote for most recent.

[hippywife]

39. Really!!

Well this is one independent, raised Dem, with enough sense to have changed voter registration to vote for a true Dem running in these primaries. Hmmmmph!

Kucinich speaks to the issues not just to our anger!!

FEAR ENDS...HOPE BEGINS!!

[mouse7]

18. That darned skewed CBS poll again

This is the EIGHTH thread I am posting that CBS poll is skewed. It will not get any better the 13th or 28th time.

CBS only had around 250 respondent to the democratic preference selection and states in the text of it's own poll the +/- is laregr.

[eileen from OH]

23. Okay, here's a couple of reasons

a) polls at this point in the campaign are pretty much meaningless (and I include those who have Dean ahead.)

b) there will be, I predict, a huge "Iraq Fatigue" factor as more of our guys/gals get killed by supposedly the same people that we are "liberating". Just wait until the next time Bush asks for bahgillions of dollars to rebuild Iraq and asks for money to help the same people that are daily killing our soldiers. (Yes, it's a LOT more complicated than that. You know that. I know that. But I don't know that most voters are aware of the subtleties, and do indeed vote with their pocketboook.)

c)In conjunction with "b", there will be no peace in Iraq. Neocon naivete notwithstanding, there is no bloody way that Americans can impose "democracy" on a people and culture that neither understands it or wants it. That ain't racist, it's realistic - the people in Iraq want a theocracy, OR they want autonomy for their respective sect. And we ain't ready or eager for that to happen. In fact, it AIN'T gonna happen. Iraq is real close to a civil war, thanks to our mucking about. And if that happens, a whole bunch of "supporters" of the war are gonna start wondering WTF we're doin there.

d) My favorite - and I've been waiting for YEARS for this - Dean has Teflon. Maybe it's undeserved, maybe it's mysterious, maybe it's the result of the media who-were-caught-unawares by the Dean phenomena, but he's got it. Jeebus, but I was sickened by Reagan's teflon, and the teflon that W seems (and I do mean "seems") to have. I'm just thrilled as you can bloody well be that for goddam once it's a DEM that has it. So far it seems, fairly or unfairly, that he's the only Dem that has it.

e) The campaign. Savvy, understands new technology. Been working IA and NH since forever and brought us all along for the ride.

eileen from OH

[mouse7]

24. Nothing mysterious about "teflon"

It appears obvious now that the appearance of "teflon" comes from not falling apart every time a neo-con or corporate media hack makes BS charges at you.

If you make a misstep, admit it, apologize, correct the record, and move on. It doesn't matter how many times the reporters demand to go back to whhipping up a frenzy, if you don't let them get to you, you won't be savaged. If they try to badger you with the same question 10 times, respond appropriately the first time, and respond with a simple, "asked and answered" the other 9 times.

[Rose Siding]

27. Carter was beating Reagan by 28% at this time

Maybe I should be worried that Dean is doing better than that?

snip>
MARK SHIELDS: I want to say one thing, Margaret. At this point in 1980, Ronald Reagan trailed Jimmy Carter 61-33 in the Gallup Poll and in June, he had climbed all the way to 32 percent. And, in retrospect, it became my goodness, Reagan was always an inevitable victor. Bill Clinton at this point was running third behind both Ross Perot and George Herbert Walker Bush. So don't get ready for the inaugural yet.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/political_wrap/july-dec03/sb_12-26.html

[mermaid]

28. How About Kerry and Kucinich Supporters

Telling me why I shouldn't be worried about THIER guy!!

THEY have less support than Dean, yet they are feeding the 'Pugs and dragging Dean down!

Now, I happen to be a Dean supporter...not necessarlly because of anything specific to Deean...but because I see him as having the best chance to unseat Bush. and that's all I want. Bush out of office.

Dean has run a very successful grass-roots campaign, and has even raised enough money to forsake Federal matching Funds...something no Dem candidate has ever managed to do before!

I choose to be optimistic...you know the pollsters re owned by the media...the media is owned by the right-wing...and they would love nothing more than to bring Dean down with false and misleading polls...because DEAN is the only guy that Rove and Co are actually afraid of!

[Scott Lee]

29. No. You've been told over and over again.

You have been given URLs to campaign information, blogs and all sorts of data relevent to Dean's history and intentions as president. You have been provided argument after argument (in more than triplicate) about why Dean would be the choice, on just about every issue brought up.

Threads like this are nothing more than flamebait pausals, signifying nothing and only creating a space in which the attacks can start up again. You are not sincere in your query.

[MGKrebs]

30. Coalitions;

Just as some will be turned off by the civil unions thing, some will also be attracted by it.
Just as some will be turned off by the tax-cut rollback, some will be attracted by a balanced budget policy. Other coalition groups;
- First time voters
- war opponents
- families with health care concerns
- unions (already lining up)
- environmentalists
- minorities

There's plenty of voters in these groups for Dean to beat Bush. We just have to get them to VOTE, and get them in the right areas to win the electoral votes.

[CWebster]

31. And your guy?

He is how far behind Dean? And we should be worried about Dean? How nice of you to do the Right's work for them.

[HFishbine]

33. If candidate X vs. Bush polls are your ciriteria, then be worried

about all of the democratic challengers. Bush trounces all of them in head-to-head polls at this point.

[Patriot_Spear]

34. Feel free to 'worry'...

While you're doing that, I'm working hard for Dean to win the nomination. So far, it's paying off.

Very soon, you won't have to 'worry' anymore and DU can get back to normal supporting Dem's.

[KaraokeKarlton]

35. Just go see him in person if you can

Any doubts you have will fly out the window.

Civil Unions won't be an issue. Dean won't allow them to be. There is no one who argues for gay rights better than Howard Dean. He frames it in such a way that silences the opposition. The way he presents his argument leaves absolutely NO room for disagreement or debate. He forces people to look at it as a human and civil rights issue and shows that anyone who opposes gay rignts and civil unions are flat out wrong. This is why you almost never see reporters bring the subject up to him. They know he'll make a total ass out of them if they question civil unions as being the morally correct thing to do. He's absolutely brilliant on the issue. On top of that, he already had that battle up here in Vermont during the 2000 state elections. He signed the bill just 6 months before the election. It was the ugliest battle I've ever even heard of, let alone seen with my own two eyes. Dean is battle tested running against a dirty, divisive and hate fueled smear campaign. None of that kind of stuff sticks to him. He just brushes it off and keeps plugging away. It's amazing.

As for the tax issue some are concerned about. This is how he's going to frame that: www.bushtax.com

If you go see him speak in person you will be confident in his ability to defeat Bush.

[bearfartinthewoods]

37. good question

the Democratic votes drop five points while Bush jumps from 49% to 55% the second Dean's name is mentioned.

we better figure this out before it's too late

[jsw_81]

38. A few reasons not to worry

1. Dean has won ten elections in a row, including eight statewide.

2. Dean has raised more money than any Democrat in history.

3. Dean has built an almost unheard of level of grass-roots support. In my state of Washington, for example, Dean attracted a crowd of ~10,000 people to hear him speak last summer. Not even Bill Clinton could attract crowds like that during an off-year, and he was the incumbent president!

4. Dean's campaign manager, Joe Trippi, is a brilliant man. Read the New Republic story that ran a few weeks ago.

5. Polls consistantly show Bush at or below the 50 level, so he's definitely vulnerable. All this talk about Bush winning a landslide is absurd.

6. Every president who lost the popular vote has gone down to defeat in the next election (J.Q. Adams, Benjamin Harrison). I'm certain that Dean will ad Bush's name to this list of losers.