The Shire will determine the Democratic nominee.

[mckeown1128]

New Hampshire that is. We can all agree that super-duper-amazing-Tuesday will determine the nominee. History shows us that the early primaries influence all of the other's due to momentum.(see Kerry 04) So, looking at the PRE-super-Tuesday primaries...

14 Jan. 08 Iowa
Probably an Edwards win. He has spent so much time their that he is practically a native. If Edwards loses he is done.

19 Jan. 08 Nevada
Clearly a Clinton win. Is practically meaningless to candidate momentum(media coverage) and thus meaningless to the nomination.

22 Jan. 08 New Hampshire
Hillary currently has the momentum nationally. All she needs to do is keep the status quo. Even with many predicting Iowa for Edwards and South Carolina for Obama their win's will not beat the Hillary's momentum. With the high media coverage and Hillary polling well in New Hampshire it is the only place where Obama or Edwards can cause an 'upset'. This upset combined with Edward's or Obama's other win(to prove it isn't just a fluke) will give either of them the momentum and media coverage.

29 Jan. 08 South Carolina
A high population of african americans (One of Obama's strongest voting blocks) will give Obama a win.

29 Jan. 08 Florida
Florida will probably go with the momentum since the candidates probably will spend no more time in Florida than the rest of the super-Tuesday states. Does anyone know if Florida will even count???

These are just my ramblings... I'd like to know what everyone else thinks????

[More Than A Feeling]

1. Who is Frodo supporting? n/t

[mckeown1128]

3. self delete

[More Than A Feeling]

4. Seriously, though...

I think that if and when Edwards wins Iowa, everything will change. He'll get a bounce. Someone looked at the numbers and found an average 14% bounce in NH for Iowa winners.

Heck, everything could change on labor day day once people start paying attention in earnest.

[rinsd]

2. I would agree that NH and not IA is the key.

I think both Hillary and Obama have to finish in the top 2 though I am unsure of the necessity to win the state because SC presents an interesting scenario.

Hillary is currently favored in NH in similar numbers to her national lead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html

Currently polling in SC favors Hillary oh so slightly (I apologize for the link in advance but these guys have the polls and their averages in a easy to finf area).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_primary-234.html

In addition she does very well among African Americans even against Obama.

[eweaver155]

5. You are quoting the RCP Average not the Last Poll which is the

Mason Dixon Poll is the latest poll. IT has Obama is ahead.

[rinsd]

6. RCP's avg is for the last 4 polls.

And in the 12 polls they have Clinton leads in 9 of them including 2 of the last 4.

Like I said, her lead in SC is slight according to the polls.

I don't think you want to play the who is winning by the latest poll game when the latest in NH has Hillary by 14. In IA, she is winning by one. In fact according to the very latest polls, Hillary is winning 4 out of the 1st 5 primaries going into Sooper-Dooper Tuesday where she has huge leads in CA and NY.