California: Clinton - 37%, Edwards and Obama tie at 15%

[wyldwolf]

A new Survey and Policy Research Institute poll shows Clinton and Giuliani leading in California. On the Dem side, Clinton is at 37%, while Edwards and Obama are tied at 15% each. Perhaps most strikingly, among women, Clinton is at 45% -- versus 13% for Obama and 8% for Edwards.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/06/25/234586.aspx

[Dawgs]

1. Does this poll make her more electable in the general?

[wyldwolf]

2. no, but THIS one does:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19373524/site/newsweek

[DCal]

3. Clinton underperforms Edwards and Obama in Red States

Clinton does worse than Edwards and Obama against all four Republican candiates in Red States:

vs. Giuliani:
Obama +1
Edwards +0
Clinton -1

vs. McCain:
Obama +5
Edwards +1
Clinton -3

vs. Romney:
Edwards +19
Obama +10
Clinton +8

vs. Thompson:
Edwards +7
Obama +7
Clinton +1

[wyldwolf]

6. that wasn't what Dawgs asked.

[DCal]

11. The Newsweek poll is not evidence Clinton is more electable

The fact that she underperforms Edwards and Obama in red states, where the election will be won or lost, shows that she is not more electable.

[wyldwolf]

13. it certainly is. She is more electable than she was a month ago. Much more so than two months ago.

Hillary flips three red states:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_surveyusa_16_giuliani_vs.php

[DCal]

15. She may be more electable than herself at a previous stage ...

but she is not more electable than Edwards or Obama.

[wyldwolf]

16. which red states do they flip?

If polling shows all three winning the general, I don't care if Edwards or Obama can do it by 2 or 3 more percentage points. I want the candidate who can hit the ground running her first day in the White House.

[DCal]

18. Apparently more than Clinton.

If the election is extremely close, as the last two have been, 2 or 3 percent in key red states can definitely make the difference between winning and losing.

If, on the other hand, this election is a landslide, as the Newsweek Poll would imply, you are correct that it doesn't matter as much who the Democratic nominee is.

[wyldwolf]

20. apparently not, void of any polling data

[DCal]

27. Edwards would flip 4-5 red states

according to the May 2nd Survey USA poll.

Edwards would defeat Giuiliani in:
Iowa
Kentucky
Missouri
Ohio
... and Edwards would tie Giuliani in Virginia.

Clinton would defeat Giuliani in Ohio, but lose in Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri and Virginia.

In summary:
Edwards: 4 wins, 1 tie.
Clinton: 1 win, 4 losses.

Those were the only red states in the poll.

[wyldwolf]

29. "according to the ***May 2nd*** Survey USA poll."

[DCal]

35. And the June 22 Newsweek poll

shows Edwards doing better than Clinton in red states as a whole, which confirms and reinforces the SurveyUSA results on a larger scale.

[wyldwolf]

36. yeah, only when you compare his performance against all GOP nominees

...his break-out number is against Mitt Romney. The only way he does better is if Romney is the nominee.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

38. HRC still wins in that poll. Obama loses via losing CA, NY, and even Mass. in that poll nt

[beyurslf]

5. But, but, but, Hillary is just, but, but, but...

Thanks!

[Independent Democrat]

4. I haven't met a SINGLE person in California who backs Hillary.....

Not one. Among the folks who aren't diehard political activists (which is 99% of the population), the mere mention of her name is met with sighs and rolling eyes. I personally know 7 people who are Dems and Indies who will not vote for Hillary under any circumstance. Of the bumperstickers I've seen on cars thus far: four of them were for Bill Richardson, two for Edwards, two for Obama, and ZERO for Hillary.

One has to wonder whether these polls are being inflated, because frankly, they don't reflected the reality out on the street.

[wyldwolf]

7. perhaps none of them go to the same bars you do?

Anecdotal evidence in regards to who you know and who you've met in a state of 36.5 million people is completely meaningless.

[Independent Democrat]

8. So please do tell, what was the sample size of your poll and the margin for error?

What was their methodology?

[Red1]

9. Alert! Alert! Dive! Dive!

Freeper alert,

Cloddish analogy's! Clumsy rationale!

Jim Robinson needs to school his shock troops better.

[wyldwolf]

10. Do you think that info is going to prove no one in California likes her?

"The non-partisan Survey and Policy Research Institute polled a random sample of 1000 California adults... The margin or error, at the 95% confidence level, is +/- 3.1 percentage points for adults, 3.8 for voters, and 3.9 for likely voters."

So let's say Obama beats the spread. Clinton loses 3.9% and Obama gains 3.9%. Clinton STILL has a substantial lead.

[Clark2008]

31. But people tell you this from all over the country.

Surely, that's not anecdotal.

I don't know anyone who supports her either - 3,000 miles away in Tennessee.

I really want to know where all these "supporters" are because I don't know ANYONE - not male nor female - who supports her. I know a few who say they will vote for her if she's the nominee, but they hope she isn't.

Where are these people?

[wyldwolf]

33. people I know all over the country support her.

In Georgia, where I live, to New York, where my wife is from and we visit often.

Florida - my best friend's retired parents love her.

[assclown_bush]

12. I haven't met one single person in the entire world who is NOT in support of Hillary...

Every single person I have asked, assures me that he/she will vote for HRC. My anecdotal evidence PROVES (beyond a reasonable doubt) that HRC will get 100% of the vote. No need to argue the point. My anecdotal evidence has settled everything once and for all.


:sarcasm:



K&R

[zulchzulu]

24. Maybe if you go outside sometime in the near future and ask...

...you might get a different answer.

Put on some clothes first. :rofl:

[assclown_bush]

37. Obviously SARCASM (which was made CLEAR)....

is lost on someone like you.:shrug:




Please refrain from operating any machinery, you are a danger to yourself.

[zulchzulu]

28. Not to worry...

I've had the same reaction in other parts of the country as well... all I can say is get organized with whoever you want and take it to the streets. That's where you really see what is going on.

[zulchzulu]

14. Link to the actual polling data

http://www.sjsu.edu/spri/07survey/politicalpressr0307.pdf

Interesting analysis with a politically eternal eight months to go... 20% undecided and it's way to early to get an accurate reading. In my view, the Iowa caucus, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina voters will frame a lot of how it's going to go on February 5.

These are some of the findings by the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose
State University, which asks a variety of political questions in its quarterly survey of 1,000
California consumers. The June survey identified 663 voters, including 645 likely voters. The
margin of error for all voters in +/- 3.8 percentage points and for likely voters it is +/- 3.9
percentage points.

With eight months remaining before the vote Feb. 5, 2008, significant numbers of voters
– a fifth of the Democrats and a quarter of the Republicans -- are undecided. And about one in 10
voters in both parties is supporting a candidate other than the leaders..

But early standings in California serve as a signal to campaign contributors and activists
who are lining up based, at least in part, on perceptions of candidates’ viability in the largest,
most diverse state in the country.

Democrats

In the Democratic primary, Clinton’s powerful lead is rooted in her support among
women and non-whites, among whom she is approaching a majority of the vote. Overall, she
leads with 37%, compared to 15% each for Edwards and Obama. But among women, Clinton has
45%, compared to 8% for Edwards and 13% for Obama. And among non-white voters she also
has 45%, compared to 12% for Edwards and 19% for Obama.
Among men, Clinton, at 27%, has just a 3-point lead over Edwards and a 10-point lead
over Obama.

“Clinton is being swept along by her support among women,” said Trounstine. “If
Edwards, Obama or any other candidate can peel women away from Clinton, the Democrats
could have a competitive race in California. But if Clinton keeps her grasp on women, it’s not
going to be much of a contest here.”

Edwards runs best among men, liberals, union households, Los Angeles voters and those
with incomes of $100,000 or more. Obama runs best in the Bay Area and among voters aged 18-
34. Edwards also draws more than twice the independents who elect to vote in the Democratic
primary than Obama does.

[wyldwolf]

17. Does any ot this DISPUTE the polling results?

Everytime someone essentially says "but her support is mostly among women," it sure seens like they're saying the female vote aint't worth much.

[zulchzulu]

19. Bask in the glory, wyldwolf...there's 8 months to go until Cali, bubba

20% of the phone call answerers were undecied...

[wyldwolf]

21. can't answer the question, bubba? If that entire 20% breaks for Obama, he still comes up short.

[SaveElmer]

25. What demographic is most likely to vote early? Early balloting could give Hillary a boost...

Before Iowa...

[wyldwolf]

26. that would be women.

[zulchzulu]

32. Did you read my post?

It's eight months away...a month in politics is considered by professional political analysts as infinity.

But hey, bask in the premature glory if ya wanna...

[wyldwolf]

34. I know that is a consolation for you. Sleep tight!

[BrokenBeyondRepair]

22. bullshit.. consider the source

[wyldwolf]

23. Survey and Policy Research Institute?

:shrug:

[PurityOfEssence]

30. Good news for Edwards

Despite the huge amounts of money and the groundswell of support for the "outsider", Obama seems to be losing ground and Edwards is closing the gap.

It'll be interesting how the corporate media plays things if Edwards pulls ahead or just even with Obama; they'll be forced to talk about him.

Still, that margin is daunting. Interesting race, eh?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

39. I agree. Edwards is especially strong in the early states where voters can see him for themselves nt