Rasmussen: Edwards STILL only candidate to beat all Repubs

[mnhtnbb]

Edwards has the best favorable/unfavorable rating of 54/38
Hillary's rating is 49/48 favorable/ unfavorable
Obama's rating is 50/44 favorable/unfavorable.


Edwards has widened his lead over Giuliani to 4% this month

Hillary loses to Giuliani by 1%

Obama is thrashed by Giuliani 39% to 51%


You can bet the MSM will not be reporting on these changes. They are determined
to do whatever possible to promote Hillary or Obama.

The recent hit pieces from the NY Times on Edwards only confirm that stand for me.

Ooops. Forgot to put the link

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/favorables/election_2008_democratic_candidates_running_in_2008_presidential_election

[Vincardog]

1. Edwards works for me unless we can have Kucinich or GORE

[CountAllVotes]

2. I'll second that!

No problem whatsoever voting for Edwards! :thumbsup:

:dem: :kick:

[waiting for hope]

19. And I'll third that...

:dem: :kick:

[usregimechange]

37. I will 4th it

[SaveElmer]

3. So even at Rasmussen...

Hillary ties Guiliani and beats all other Republicans...

Obama's negative are rising kinda rapidly there...

[draft_mario_cuomo]

5. See post 4 nt

[draft_mario_cuomo]

4. Wow, Obama really seems to have taking a beating recently

People forget that he rode a tidal wave of three years of glowing press coverage to being arguably the most popular politician in America after Ghouliani (the repuke version of BO in terms of glowing press from 2001 to this spring). He finally received negative coverage starting 2 weeks ago and he is up to 4% unfavorables--only 4 points less than HRC--and being trounced by Ghouliani.

Somewhere SaveElmer must be smiling. SaveElmer was correct when he/she argued that Obama, while having much better favorables than HRC, was very vulnerable to attacks because he was largely unknown; the right-wing really doesn't have much more to use against JE and especially HRC.

[SaveElmer]

6. Well I wouldn't say I'm smiling exactly...

I like Obama and don't particularly want to see any of the candidates too damaged to compete next year...

However, I don't think it is surprising we are seeing an uptick in Obama's negatives...as it becomes more apparent he is a partisan Democrat, republicans who were inclined to like him are probably rethinking it...

[draft_mario_cuomo]

7. I know. I meant you would be happy to be vindicated

I agree with your post. Obama is unique among our candidates. HRC is running on her and Bill's record; Edwards is running on his platform. Obama is popular because of the positive image he has able to present (he was in the low 20's in polls before he even became a candidate and the mid 20's right after he announced, before he had any semblance of a platform). As the facts about Obama have begun coming out they have hurt the fiction of Obama. He, like Ghouliani, rode a tidal wave of positive press. Ghouliani has fallen badly since the media finally began scrutinizing him, although he started at such a high level (44% at one point among repukes) that he remains popular. Ghouliani also is reliant on image. Many of his "supporters" don't even know that he is pro-choice. I suspect Obama will fall in the same way Ghouliani has. If he was never able to get out of the 20's among Dems, aside from a few outlying polls, and never was very strong in GE trial heats, when he was getting 24/7 glowing press it is hard to see him getting stronger as he faces scrutiny. The key difference between the two is that Ghouliani will always have the 9/11 card to play; Obama has no similar ace.

All that said, Obama, given that he is new, has a chance to improve his image because people's views of him have not crystallized. I would be surprised, though, if he ever returns to the low unfavorables he had but I do not rule out the possibility.

Notice how BO supporters who for months touted his electability advantage over HRC are conspicuously missing from this thread? ;)

[zulchzulu]

8. Obama would hand Rudy his hat if that was the race in my view...

Obama (49%) Brownback (34%)
Obama (48%) Gingrich (38%)
Obama (39%) Giuliani (51%)
Obama (50%) Hagel (34%)
Obama (52%) Huckabee (32%)
Obama (46%) McCain (38%)
Obama (49%) Romney (37%)
Obama (47%) Thompson (44%)

Once we had a couple debates if Obama was facing off with Rudy, my money would definitely go toward Barack... Giuliani also has a rat's chance in hell of being the GOP nominee anyway.

I'd love an Obama v. Giuliani race.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

9. Perhaps. The question though is relative electability among our top candidates

I think anyone we nominate would have a chance to win the GE because the Republican brand is so weak right now. The question is relative electability, something Obama supporters have touted for months as one reason for nominating him over HRC. Now it seems HRC has overtaken Obama--by a large margin--in electability. Obama was always the most fragile candidate of our big three since he was the newest and hadn't really been attacked until 2 weeks ago.

Two multi-state polls show Obama losing California, New York, and even Massachussetts to Ghouliani. We can't ignore that when dicussing electability. HRC is the only one who wins NY against Ghouliani right now. The difference is Edwards flips enough states to more than offset NY and wins by a larger margin the HRC. Right now, it doesn't seem Obama flips enough Bush states and in fact loses some Gore/Kerry states. If he loses CA in the GE, he is done.

[Scriptor Ignotus]

35. Giuliani will be easy to thrash/smear in the GE

I almost hope he gets nominated for that reason, however I truly fear what would happen to our great country if he got elected. I think he'd be worse than Bush, from a civil liberties perspective anyway.

I've seen polls that show Obama winning against all candidates too.

I don't think it does much good to trumpet the winners each time a new person is on top. One week it will be Edwards, then HRC, then Obama. This was a bad month, presswise, for Obama. I don't think his criticims have been devastating, although they haven't been good. Edwards had a bad month 2 months ago. Hillary's about due for hers.

[SaveElmer]

10. Thought you didn't like polls with a 4% MoE...nt

[zulchzulu]

21. 4% MoE is certain crap...so are national polls at this point, but...

...since we're playing fairly meaningless hypotheticals at this point, why not jump in the pool...

[w4rma]

25. You're supporting the "Howard Dean" of the race, this year, zulchzulu.

Edwards is the John Kerry. (Edwards was even John Kerry's choice for Vice President.)

[zulchzulu]

26. Mentioning Edwards with John Kerry makes me ill...

You can't compare the two.

Edwards couldn't lick Kerry's boots when it comes to what John has done for this country as an American.

Good luck with your candidate.

[w4rma]

40. I feel that way about Obama and Hillary.

Obama who has done hardly anything so far and is mostly a lot of media hype. Hillary who apparently is in this race for her ego, whatever the costs to the nation.

[flpoljunkie]

28. Giuliani will not be the nominee. He's down again in today's Rasmussen with Thompson up 4.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_republican_presidential_primary

Thompson, preparing to formally announce his candidacy, leads the pack in the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey with 27% support. That gives him a four-point advantage over former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani who is currently preferred by 23% of Likely Primary Voters. A week ago, it was Thompson 28% and Giuliani 27%. Two weeks ago, they were tied at 24%. Prior to that time, Giuliani had been on top in every weekly Rasmussen Reports poll for five months.

Thompson leads Giuliani by 13 percentage points among conservative primary voters while Giuliani leads among moderates.

[Moloch]

31. You never know..

Remember when Clark entered the 04 race in late summer 03? He was polling higher than anyone else at the time, although his campaign fizzled over the next few months. (I was a Clark supporter.)

I suspect thompson will do the same, although I doubt the rethugs will nominate giuliani. We'll probably be facing romney.

[Mass]

11. Way too early for a GE poll.

And this is true whatever these polls show (many show Obama doing well).

BTW, these polls show Obama beat every single candidate except Guliani, and the Guliani polls for Obama and Edwards are more than 3 weeks old. Do you really think Guliani will be the nominee and that the polsl will stay the same until then.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

12. The real story IMO is that Obama's unfavorables are now only 4 points less than HRC

HRC has been attacked by the right-wing since 1992. Obama is new. His unfavorables have far more room for growth than HRC. Just look at the damage the past 2 weeks have done to Obama, who once had unfavorables that were lower than anyone except for Ghouliani in some polls (Ghouliani himself is an example of what happens when a candidate who rode a tidal wave of glowing press coverage finally faces media scrutiny. His unfavorables have risen substantially this year. Obama appears to be following suit now that the media is scrutinizing him).

[Mass]

14. From a pollster who has Bush's approval numbers at 35 %.

Which is why I am not sure I believe them that early in the game.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

16. Obama supporters used to believe this firm's polling

When they showed BO with a substantial advantage over HRC in GE trial heats and a huge advantage in unfavorables. ;)

[Mass]

17. I dont. Never have. *'s approval numbers are a big pb for me.

As for GE's number that early, it is simply for marketing reasons for these firms, nothing else.

[slick8790]

24. They predicted almost all of the senate races in 2006 within +-3%, IIRC.

They're pretty damn reputable.

[rinsd]

34. Rasmussen is very accurate for election surveys.

I also think they do a 5 option approval disapproval survery( ie: strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove, no opinion) which may explain why they are a bit higher that usual on Bush approval polls than others.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/president_bush_job_approval

[MrSlayer]

13. I wouldn't hate having to vote for Edwards.

Of the top three frontrunners he would be my choice. I'd much rather have Clark or Gore but Edwards is ok.

[maximusveritas]

15. Something fishy about those numbers

Obama leads Thompson by just 3, but McCain by 8? And he loses to Giuliani by 12? Huh? That's way out of line with every other poll. Even Biden does better than Obama against Giuliani. There's no way you're going to get me to believe that. Rasmussen tends to get races close in the end, but he also tends to produce some crazy results early on.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

18. Look at how much BO's unfavs have risen since the media has finally been scrutinizing him

What is happening to him is exactly what happened to Ghouliani earlier in the year. Both rode a tidal wave of years of nothing but glowing press; Ghouliani's unfavorables rose substantially once the media began scrutinizing him a few months ago and the last 2 weeks seem to have had the same effect on Obama.

[maximusveritas]

20. Once again

Rasmussen's numbers are way out of line with other polls. Q-Pac had his unfavorable at about 20% most recently, at the same time Rasmussen pegged him at 44%. Given that Rasmussen is a Republican who also gives higher ratings to Bush than anyone else, this isn't surprising.
I do accept that Obama's negatives are rising, as expected, but only about 10% since his entry to the race, certainly nowhere near the negatives of Hillary.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

22. The difference is Obama's will continue to rise substantially as he gets scrutinized

See Giuliani, Rudoplh.

By the end of the year it is unclear if he will have lower unfavorables than HRC, especially if things continue to come out (either via media reporting or Obama's actions during the campaign) that go to the heart of his perfectly crafted image.

Rasmussen was also the most accurate polling firm in the last two elections. I didn't see Obama supporters cast doubt on its legitimacy when they were attacking HRC's unfavorables and arguing she was a weaker GE candidate based on several Rassmussen polls...

[Ethelk2044]

27. Obama will do Well

[Jillian]

23. Rasmussen also has Edwards in the mid-teens

http://news.yahoo.com/s/rasmussen/20070625/pl_rasmussen/2008democraticprimary2007062520070625_1

[jefferson_dem]

29. Your numbers on Obama are way off. He's only down 3 points to Ghouliani

Obama in Tight Race with Both Thompson and Giuliani
Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Former Senator Fred Thompson (R) and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani are on top in polls for the Republican Presidential nomination and both men are competitive in general election match-ups with Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D).

Giuliani leads Obama 44% to 41% while Obama leads Thompson 43% to 41%. The survey’s margin of sampling error is +/- three percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_in_tight_race_with_both_thompson_and_giuliani

[mnhtnbb]

30. Last month's numbers. Please note my post was yesterday; this is new info

Obama has pulled up--but the point is Edwards is STILL the only Dem candidate
who polls ahead of all Repubs.

In fact, Rasmussen still hasn't updated their Dem page: this link
still shows the Guiliani lead, even though it's linked through the page
that reports the new numbers for Obama.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/favorables/election_2008_democratic_candidates_running_in_2008_presidential_election

[rinsd]

32. And according to the same survey, he can't stay above 15% with Democrats.

Hillary is all of 1 pts behind Rudy, Obama is almost within the MOE.

Edwards argument that only he can beat the GOP is dead.

[rinsd]

33. The "Only Edwards can beat the GOP" meme is dead

Hillary is down 1 pts to Rudy and Obama is within the MOE is Rassmussen.

RCP averages have Hillary by 2.4 pts over Rudy

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_giuliani_vs_clinton-227.html

RCP averages have Obama at 1.2 pts over Rudy

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_giuliani_vs_obama-228.html

Edwards average is 3.4 over Rudy

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_giuliani_vs_edwards-229.html

Both Hillary and Obama lead the rest of the GOP by at least 3.5 pts.

[TeamJordan23]

38. Unfavorability is only 37%. nt

[usregimechange]

36. Kick...

[Hippo_Tron]

39. They also have Bush's approval rating at 37%

Why should I trust a pollster that always has Bush's approval about 10 points higher than it really is.