Quinnipiac: Clinton fares better than Obama in three key swingstates.

[wyldwolf]

* Florida - Giuliani beats Clinton 48 - 42 percent, compared to a 47 - 42 percent Giuliani lead June 7;
* Ohio - Clinton ties Giuliani 43 - 43 percent, compared to May 16 when Giuliani led 47 - 43 percent;
* Pennsylvania - Giuliani and Clinton are tied 45 - 45 percent, compared to a 47 - 43 percent Giuliani lead May 31.

Obama and Gore in Florida:

* Giuliani tops Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 47 - 39 percent;
* Giuliani beats former Vice President Al Gore 49 - 40 percent;
* Clinton gets 44 percent to Arizona Sen. John McCain's 43 percent;
* Obama and McCain are tied at 42 - 42 percent;
* McCain gets 44 percent to Gore's 43 percent;
* Clinton beats Thompson 46 - 41 percent;
* Gore edges Thompson 45 - 42 percent;
* Obama gets 43 percent to Thompson's 41 percent.

..in Ohio:

Ohio:

* Giuliani gets 42 percent to Obama's 40 percent;
* Gore gets 44 percent to Giuliani's 43 percent;
* Clinton gets 44 percent to McCain's 42 percent;
* Obama tops McCain 43 - 38 percent;
* McCain gets 43 percent to Gore's 41 percent;
* Clinton beats Thompson 47 - 38 percent;
* Gore tops Thompson 44 - 38 percent;
* Obama beats Thompson 43 - 35 percent.

... in Pennsylvania:

* Giuliani gets 44 percent to Obama's 43 percent;
* Giuliani edges Gore 46 - 44 percent;
* Clinton beats McCain 46 - 42 percent;
* Clinton tops Thompson 49 - 38 percent;
* Obama beats McCain 44 - 39 percent;
* Obama beats Thompson 50 - 33 percent;
* Gore tops McCain 48 - 41 percent;
* Gore beats Thompson 50 - 37 percent.

Clinton fares better than Obama in three key swingstates.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1079

[PATRICK]

1. Not to argue against your main

premise, just a weary comment on this type of polling. Not being a statistician I still sense that huge core of that thirty to forty percent that pops up for any name one cares to put in here is based on them being on the perceived list of top offerings of either party. The actual identity of the R or D makes the figure jiggle and wiggle a few per cent in a way hard to puzzle out except as a variance of fever in the electoral victim. One gets that frisson of promise a veteran bettor gets from reading a tip sheet or a seer gets from spilled entrails- or modest tea leaves.

I do accept and promote what is possible at this stage. That Hillary is no flash in the pan Joe Lieberman. That there is a sort of contest of public fevers between the two for the media frontrunner crown. That the GOP is naturally and stubbornly sifting about for a champion of their own, not automatically jumping ship to some palatable, inevitable Democrat. That the various Dem candidates are doing fairly well, but none of them burying by mere mention of their name any GOP ham sandwich. The public likes apples and oranges in this fruit salad.

This is true of all candidates. Some prognostications will be later confirmed or blown apart by more meaningful times and events like actual voting. We can be disappointed, defensive or preening, later. But it is just good to see people promoting legitimate campaigns and formidable candidates and no one need despair at least(unfortunately that applies to the GOP zombie slate as well) and why temper hope or enthusiasm by too much reasoning?

My own impatience, as unwise as pols think it to be, is that candidates are too cautious, sloganeering or non-confrontational. DK tries and if the media were not studiously keeping his voice off the airways we would see some testing of that caution among an electorate hungering for leadership in a crisis the entire gorged top of America seems intent to sleepwalk through, hoping not to awake the millions in the
crowded room. No one is actually going for it- to phrase it vaguely but viscerally. The jugular vein of the electoral beast is not throbbing between their toothless gums. And while the strategic season wends on, there is death, loss of everything worthwhile, multiplying unpunished high crimes and no impeachment to define and protect the worthiness of the high office everyone says they are seeking avidly. In the past, were the massive fifty percenters along the partisan divides to get impatient too with these games, third parties would bleed the mandate and schemes dry, primaries would be won by people like Jesse Jackson way back when or DK today. Those who don't register on the Richter scale might be in for a real shock. Such things would only serve the sunken fortunes of the shamed GOP and keep the people from having their best voice strongly represented once more.

[Alamom]

2. k&r