DEAN suffers batting slump????

[bearfartinthewoods]

with three days to go, the dr's bat seems to be going limp.

time to get out your credit cards and go deeper into debt if he is to come anywhere close to raising 1.5 mil by the end of the year.

as of 8AM, 383,583,28 of the 1.5 million. maybe this is a further sign of the times shown by the CBS poll of deans free-falling numbers and people are finally wondering if they should continue to throw good money after bad.

we can only hope that people take a pause and realize the true worth of the primaries. we are still 11 months from the election. sure, dean jumped out of the gate early and looked good around the first turn. but how will he handle the back stretch? should we be betting all our hopes on dean this early in the race?

the primaries will tell the tale as long as he isn't coroneted by quickie wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. time to spread out the money to our other candidates to make this a real primary test.

[mouse7]

1. CBS poll was skewed

This is the 9th thread I posted on that CBS poll was skewed. It will not change the 13th or 84th times you post it.

CBS only had about 250 respondents for the democratic preference portion of the poll. The poll stated in the text that the +/- was larger.

As far as the bat goes, only a bat done after people return to work after New Year's is a legit measure. Net usage is always way down during the holidays. Traffic here at DU, for example, is way down during the holidays as well.

[bearfartinthewoods]

4. and i will continue to point out that the number of responses is a factor

which is used to calculate the MOE and that the Margin Of Error in this poll which you claim to be defective is the SAME as many if not most of the polls which, in the past, have shown dean on the rise.

you can't have it both ways. if a MOE of +/- 6 is good enough for a poll that shows dean on the rise, than a poll with a MOE of +/- 6 is equally worthy of note, even if it show him in a less favorable light.

if you reject the 12/21-22 results, you also need to reject the previous results as well.

CBS News Poll. Dec. 21-22, 2003. N=244 likely Democratic primary voters nationwide. MoE ± 6.

"Who would you like to see the Democratic Party nominate as its presidential candidate in 2004: , or someone else?" Names rotated
............12/21-22 .....12/14-16 ...11/10-13

Howard Dean.. 16............ 23........... 14

[mouse7]

6. It's not good enough for anything

250 responses is bullshit statistical work. It's not good enough to be used for catbox liner. It's not good on the way up or the way down. It's not good for anything.

[dsc]

18. I want a citation of one other poll

with that MOE. I have not seen any major news org put one out with higher than 5.

[bearfartinthewoods]

20. http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Dec. 18-19, 2003. N=370 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide. MoE ± 6.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Dec. 15-16, 2003. N=356 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 6.

many of the polls don't list their MOE

[dsc]

24. I do see what you are saying

though not one face to face poll has that MOE. My guess is that the other sixes are the result of the Democrat only part being part of a larger poll. Which makes those a poll within a poll.

[TLM]

76. Both those polls have a sample size of over 100 more people

And they both have Dean's numbers holding stedy.


Do you not find it odd that the only poll that shows what you claim to be a freefall in Dean's numbers is the one with the smallest sample size?

That CBS poll also shows a 6 point jump for CMB.

[shivaji]

114. The "southerner" on the ticket could be Senator Graham of FL

[polpilot]

117. That IS the ticket. Dean/Graham '04. Policy for the Dean Administration

is being developed now. The campaign's on auto-pilot.

Dean '04...

[McDiggy]

84. How to win without the South? It's easy.

The same as 2000, but add West Virginia and Nevada. Dean WILL win West Virginia in 2004, mark my words. His pro-gun, pro-union stance is HUGE here. I think whoever wins Nevada wins it all.

[JNelson6563]

2. Thanks for the reminder!!

I've been so busy I forgot the bat is up! I'm donating the $$ I got for Christmas. I'll do that now and then just write a check out our general funds for the house party Dec. 30 (which will also be counted in this current effort).

Let's keep this kicked to remind all the Dean supporters.

Thanks Bear! :hi:

Julie

[bearfartinthewoods]

5. you are welcome

since i posted the celebration thread the day he broke his first bat, i thought it might be appropriate for me to post this for his first failure.

[burned]

3. thanks for reminding me :)

I just added to the bat. If I'm getting screwed, I want to go down doing the right thing.

[Skwmom]

7. He has house parties scheduled for the 30th

so I'm sure he'll surpass the 1.5 million by year end.

[dorktv]

71. Yeah...most of my people are waiting until then.

[Closer]

8. Thanks for the reminder

I just donated again. This time, in YOUR name, Bear. :hi:

[Racenut20]

9. Is this a fund raising forum for individual candidates?

[bearfartinthewoods]

10. yes, candidates successes and failures are usually discussed here.

there have been numerous threads posted announcing dean's bat busting cash machine.

[Racenut20]

11. Is it a discussion of success/failures, or a request for contributions?

[bearfartinthewoods]

12. well i have no control over what others do,

i am clearly hoping people donate to other candidates to prevent an early end a meaningful primary season.

[HFishbine]

46. Any candidate in particular?

Just wondering...

[lurk_no_more]

16. Maybe another victim fund drive

there's still time for Trippi to come out with another letter "CRYING" foul with a "don't forget to contribute button" to help thwart these vicious attacks against our leader at the bottom.


Food for thought from….“JAFO”

[GR]

13. I'm Going To Contribute For The First Time....

The holidays are distracting a lot of people. When people get refocused, the financial support will be there, despite your attacks.

[Racenut20]

14. You have convinced me all, I will make another donation to an

unnamed candidate today. Probably ABD.

[worldgonekrazy]

88. ABD is disgusting

Seriously. How do you live with yourself?

[Shanty Oilish]

15. Not much of a sample, is it?

Much as I'd like to believe it. We need to rethink things. Dean resonates to our anti-Bush hearts but he's not the only Dem who is anybody-but-Bush.
If Dean starts slumping, Republicans will rush forth and bear him aloft on their dark, papery wings. They want Dean. That right there should tell us Bush is beatable and not by Dean.

[polpilot]

17. Kerry is beatable by Dean. Gep is beatable by Dean. Joe is beatable

by Dean. BUSH is beatable by Dean!!!!


Dean '04...

[mikehiggins]

25. Sorry. Doesn't follow n/t

[Scott Lee]

19. It's called "The Holidays"

People usually cool out their campaign contributions in favor of buying gifts for family and friends around this time.

[Northwind]

21. As evidenced

By the fact that the drive has jumped over $250,000 in the last day and a half, and looks to be climging even faster today.

[Scott Lee]

22. Roger that. :)

But don't worry, the Dean opponents are formulating a new story that the sudden post Christmas rise in fundraising is yet another spike in the media conspiracy to pump up Dean.

Hip hip hippity hop.....

[RetroLounge]

23. Thanks for the reminder.

My contributuion to Dr. Dean goes out this week.

I'll post this here so you can watch the bat over the next week...

[Patriot_Spear]

26. Time to give again? You bet!

Thanks for the heads up...

[HFishbine]

27. Another $50,000 in the three hours since the original post

Watch and learn.

[Patriot_Spear]

31. It took Clark a week to hit 50K...

Either ya's got the juice, or ya's don't. Dean's got da juice!

[bearfartinthewoods]

35. he can certainly pull in the bucks

if the presidency can be bought, can he out raise bushco?

[trogdor]

77. Depends on who's buying it.

The few or the many. You can't beat Bush without money.

[no name no slogan]

108. But Gore did in 2000

Gore beat Shrub in 2000 while spending $60 million LESS than Shrub did.

We've already proven that winning the election is NOT about money. It's about MESSAGE: in particular, not just being "not Bush", but being something that is markedly DIFFERENT from Bush.

Fundraising is all fine and well, but Democrats don't win by outspending Repubs. They win by being strongest on the issues, and by being NOT THE REPUBLICANS.

If we truly think that we'll win by outspending Bush, we've already lost IMHO. The only thing we'll buy is our name on the office door, but nothing will really change with a Dem in the White House.

[TeacherCreature]

96. talk to the bat bear

bwhahhahhahhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[TrueAmerican]

39. Ok

[Patriot_Spear]

41. Lower expectations than Dean....

Interesting.

[TLM]

82. Wow look at those numbers.....

Clark has 748,306 from 6,271 contrubitors. THat has been running for what, like three weeks or better, and included the amounts raised by the birthday funraiser.

That's about 120 bucks per donation...



Dean has 487,926 from 7865 in 9 days.

That's about 62 bucks per donation.

[Hoppin_Mad]

28. Another $10 from me ! Call me Mr Moneybags !

[Scott Lee]

43. Thanks for the reminder....I just sent in a Ulysess Grant!

I beg Dean opponents to start more threads like this...it does wonders for The Bat!

Thanks! ;)

[RevolutionStartsNow]

29. Heh

This post will be fun to review on Dec. 31 at midnight. :)

Dean has EASILY raised 1.6 Million in the 3 bats he's had up just in the past few weeks. The Gore bat raised almost 700k in 5 days, and the attack ad bat took in over 550k in 4 Days.

But thanks for putting up a bat thread.

[JNelson6563]

30. Indeed we owe Bear our thanks

Seems things are really cookin' on the bat since this post. Bear, you rock, even though your aid was provided most unwittingly. ;-)

Julie

[HFishbine]

32. If only

there was as much effort put into supporting the mystery candidate instead of trashing Dean, who knows what might be accomplished?

[TeacherCreature]

37. The smell of Flop Sweat is getting strong amoung the ABD people

soon we will need gas masks to open their threads at all.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

33. The best part

is that many people will come to this thread thinking they are going to read about how poorly Dean is doing in fundraising. Imagine their surprise. :)

[JNelson6563]

36. looks like it was a case of "bat envy"

that was my first impression. ;-)

Julie

[Patriot_Spear]

48. LMAO- Dr. Freud a Mister 'Clark' to see you...

Too funny, 'Bat Envy'. ...write that one down.

[JNelson6563]

59. heh heh

:-)

[bearfartinthewoods]

72. you're welcome!

[TeacherCreature]

34. How is your candidates fundraising going?

What has he collected?

[HFishbine]

40. Speaking of "that" candidate

Who is it anyway?

[Scott Lee]

44. .....crickets.....chirping.....

[Demobrat]

38. Don't worry, honey.

Most of us are waiting to donate through house parties and events on the 30th. Dean will be just fine. Kisses.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

42. Another 16k last hour...

The bat is hopping now!

[Patriot_Spear]

45. Do the math: At 16K an hour... ouch.

In 24 hours? $384,000. In 3 days? $1,152,000. Total bat? Almost 2 miliion dollars!

So solly, chalie.

[quinnox]

47. If they don't make it, Dean's campaign will just move the goalposts

They've done it before.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

50. 443,367 sour grapes and counting (nt)

[mouse7]

49. I hope Howard is spending a little time in a real batting cage

After all this bat stuff, I'd hate to see him called out for some celebrity swings in batting practice before a MLB game and have him *WHIFF*

[CMT]

51. many Dean supporters are saving to give at house parties

on December 30th. We will make the goal. Don't worry,.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

52. 1500 House Parties

with Al and Tipper introducing the Governor on the phone call.

[madfloridian]

53. 454 thou and counting.

It has gone up almost 25 thousand since I first looked today. Bearfart, you are good for Dean.

[TeacherCreature]

61. maybe next month the Dean Camp can get Bearfarts to post all over

Al Gore's internet. He could hit Democrats.com and Mediawhoresonline and the Aol message boards. Instead of 1.5 million we could shoot for 4 million? What do you think?

[Scott Lee]

63. I nominate Bearfarts as Top Dean Fundraiser! Anybody with me?

Go-o-o-o-o-o-o Bearfarts! Thanks man!

[RevolutionStartsNow]

54. $465,000 by 3 pm EST

Easily hit $500k by Midnight, leaving 3 days to raise $1 Million.

[madfloridian]

55. I think it will hit 500 well before midnight.

The pattern is that people hold back, wait, and make folks wonder. Then they really start about the last day. Happens every time. I have seen posts on this in the blog.

But then, 10 to 16 thousand an hour ain't bad for now.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

56. I think you are right

It will be well past 500k by midnight. 1.5 is going to be easy.

I did the math and it looks like Dean will raise upwards of $2.7 Million in bat fundraisers alone in December. That is amazing.

[jsw_81]

57. In related news...

Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton both raised $12 and found a few dimes in their respective couches.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

58. Uh, please don't do that

And by the way, DK is having an EXCELLENT fundraising quarter!

[robbedvoter]

60. That's the spirit! Ted Koppel would be proud! Stick it to the poor!

You are rich! they are poor! Yeay, you! Merry christmas, HD supporters!

[TeacherCreature]

62. DK and Sharpton are poor?

I don't think so.

[no name no slogan]

119. Not "poor" necessarily, but DK is definately NOT rich

Kucinich's net worth is very well short of $1 million. I've heard from some sources that it's about $30,000-- TOTAL. I believe his one major asset is a house in Cleveland, and that's about it.

The man is not in politics for the money. He does not come from money, as he spent much of his living in a car with his parents and the rest of his brothers and sisters. Outside of politics, his jobs have consisted of teaching, consulting on energy issues and working in the broadcast media. He holds a union card from the camera operator's union, IIRC. He is not a lawyer.

Sure, fundraising is good, but this election will not be about money, or outspending Republicans. Democrats don't win that way.

Look at 2000. Bush outspent Gore by $60 MILLLION, and still lost-- he was only able to steal Florida with the help of his brother and his daddy's hand-picked SCOTUS justices. Democrats are delusional if they somehow think that they can buy the election away from Shrub in 2004.

[madfloridian]

65. I resent it when a Dean supporter does that. Not nice.

You should be ashamed.

[jsw_81]

69. I resent it when the Kucinich nuts claim that Dean is controlled by "Jews"

So now we're even.

And you should be ashamed for being friendly to those idiots. If they had their way, they'd give Bush a 50-state landslide and destroy the Democratic Party for decades to come. They're just as dangerous as the Greenies.

[madfloridian]

70. And that was more out of line.

.

[lurk_no_more]

101. Nice way with words there sport

Food for thought from….“JAFO”

[RetroLounge]

116. Out of line. Knock it off already...

There are enough attack threads already, don't hi-jack this one...

[madfloridian]

64. 477,516 at 4:00

That is about 12,000 in an hour.

[burning bush]

66. Information is NOT Knowledge

Bearfart, you can quote this poll or that poll, or show Dean's bat hit its mark or not.

You have a lot of information, sometimes even an information overload! But what to do with all this data? Is data knowledge? Not in the slightest.

Raw information is to knowledge as carbon is to the diamond.

Information and carbon --abundant, common, easily obtained. In their raw states, not very valuable.

Apply time, heat and pressure to carbon and you create a thing of beauty and usefulness, a gem that can reflect dazzling light or cut through the most dense of all objects.

Information, when subject to time (research), heat (challenge and debate), and pressure (practical application), can create knowledge--an element that shines as brightly and cuts as quickly as the diamond, and hold more value than any stone.

Simply posting a poll and a dollar figure does not shine any light on the viability of Dean's campaign, nor does it cut through the rhetoric of your anti-Dean sloganeering.

Information, even when valid and true, is not the same as knowledge, am I right?

Am I?

Well...does a bear fart in the woods?

[madfloridian]

68. Chuckle, and I think so.

[burning bush]

111. Yeah, and the Pope is ... ahhh, never mind...

[stickdog]

67. Thanks for reminding us! (nt)

[Upfront]

73. Was Going To Wait

How ever, in farts honor, contribution is on the way.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

74. Excellent, should hit 500k in the next hour or 2

Then it's a race to see if he can get $1 Million in a little over 3 days.

[BuelahWitch]

80. Me too!

:D Thanks Bear!

[Rose Siding]

75. $487,925 @ 5pm est

[madfloridian]

83. Over 10,000 an hour.

A :bounce: for the bat!

[dfgrbac]

78. Don't put value in polls!

Check out the thread I started today.

What is the true significance of political polls?

[TLM]

79. You don;t seem to be listening....

But then i guess the facts just don;t make for effective flames.

When the Bat goes up, the bulk of the funds always come in on the last day or two.



There are still 3 more days, and I suspect we will not see the biggest movement until that last 6 hours of the last day... and the house parties on the 30th.

[ProudToBeLiberal]

81. awesome n/t

[JNelson6563]

90. Wow! Big progress!

Look at that bat fill! Cool.

Julie

[Logansquare]

85. Thanks for the reminder

Just gave the Dean campaign my fifth $100 donation.

[Hep]

86. Just broke 500,000

and counting. Hooah!

[RevolutionStartsNow]

89. Much faster than I thought we would

Up up up!

[demolition angel]

87. Bear, you win without the south easily

Perhaps the easiest way is to win Arizona.

If the Dem nominee simply holds the Gore states and adds Arizona, its 270 to 268.

Is it possible to win Arizona? Perhaps. ASU had a poll in September showing Bush at 34% with Dem nominee at 44%. Of course an ASU poll in December with named Dem candidates showed Bush at between 49 and 51%, depending upon the Dem candidate, so perhaps Arizona is not winnable.

So let's look at something fairly possible.

Two states have to go for the Dem nominee over Bush. The two candidate states are Nevada and West Virginia.

Bush won Nevada by ~21,000 votes. Nader got ~15,000 votes.

Nevada folks are none too pleased with Bush's Yucca Mountain decision. So winning Nevada is certainly a realistic possiblity.

Bush won West Virginia 52% to 46%, by under 40,000 votes. Nader got 10,000 votes. West Virginia has historically been a democrat state, and there are twice as many registered democrats than republicans, as of 2002. So West Virginia is winnable.

Add Nevada and West Virginia to the Gore states and you have 270 Electoral College votes, exactly what you need to win.

[exotrip]

98. wow

You Dean supporters have a short-sighted election strategy. "All we need is to win the Gore states and <enter red state here>"

Well, Look at all the states Gore won by 5% or less. There were more of those than states Bush won by 5% or less. Whoever is nominated is going in with the electoral map against them. It will be difficult for any Democrat to overcome that. Ponder tht the next time you chirp "Deab will beat Bush! We gots the powah"

[Cheswick2.0]

91. kick

I am enjoying watching how well Dean is doing raising money. Thanks to whoever added the bat above so we could keep track.

[Lobo_13]

92. kick

Well I'll be dol garned.

It looks more like the slow start was due to the holiday than any kind of flagging support.

Considering there was a few days there where people were thoroughly engaged in the holidays than engaging in fundraising.

Oh, another 10,000.00 in the last hour.

Plus my second $50.00 for the campaign.

So sorry, bearfart, maybe next time.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

93. 12 hours after the slump was announced...

The Bat stands at $521,004

That's up 137,421 in 12 hours!

With slumps like these, who knows where we will be on Dec. 31?

:evilgrin:

[LuminousX]

94. Was it another peak? another implosion?

[Hep]

95. Yeah, he's peaking too early

yet again.

[madfloridian]

99. $529 thousand now. Nearly 10:00

Oops, there goes the doggone slump again.

[Myra]

97. Seriously, those of us donating to candidates applying for matching funds

Realize that there's a deadline for having the funds matched
by the FEC. There's no such deadline for Dean.
That's just a fact.

[madfloridian]

100. Edit. by MF

Posted in wrong thread.

[WillyT]

102. Damn, One Might Think You Are Actually Hoping For The Destruction...

of one of our Democratic candidates.

Soon, that won't be allowed here anymore. Hope to see you supporting the eventual Dem Nominee.

WHOEVER THAT MAY BE!!!

Otherwise it's been... Something else.

[lurk_no_more]

103. After readig the replies here, it's true what they say

“a fool and his money are soon parted" LOL


Food for thought from….“JAFO”

[madfloridian]

112. The other way to look at it is this:

We are trying to take back our country from the Neo-cons, and the right wing radio hatemongers. That is another way to look at it.

[MODemocrat]

104. Thanks for the reminder, I just got my checkbook out again

So he's in a slump! A lot of people are hitting some rough spots
at this time. Christmas, Taxes, insurance, prescription drugs and heat bills set me back, but hopefully, I'll get jump-started pretty soon. Nothing can change my mind about Howard Dean. :thumbsup:

[Lobo_13]

107. But even in a slump

He's raising money three times faster than Clark.

Clark @ 5:30: 754,672.00
Clark @ 9:15: 762,777.00
3.75 hours: $8,105.00
Per hour: 2,161.33

Dean @ 5:00: 487,925.00
Dean @ 10:00: 537,206.50
5 hours: 49,281.50
Per hour: 9,856.30

Sorry almost five times as fast. And Clark is still running a significantly higher average per donation.

[ProudToBeLiberal]

105. woot woot 537k

this is so awesome. Go Howard Dean

[MODemocrat]

106. Gosh, I only wish you would wish for Bush's downfall

instead of Dean's. Trust me, I'll be there for the democratic candidate who's nominated, because there's no way I'll help Bush by running down one of my own. It's called loyalty.

[WillyT]

109. Bingo MoDem, Exactly !!!

:hi:

Seems like loyalty to the candidate of our choosing is passe', but we will be triply castigated for not being loyal to the Dem Party if because of Dem infighting, we choose to vote other than Dem!

:wtf:

Still ABB, but way under pressure here!

:hurts:

[burning bush]

110. $544.45K by 11:00 pm!

from 8773 donations.

Less than $65 average donation!

Damn, if the other candidates had this kind of slump they would consider it a great quarter!

[quaker bill]

113. In case you haven't been watching

Dean generally meets the goals by a surge in last minute donations.

[Cheswick2.0]

115. wow

this is amazing. Look at those numbers grow.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

118. Amazing what happened overnight

I woke up and the bat was at $623k -- :bounce:

[poskonig]

120. 623K at 10AM Eastern n/t

:kick:

[poskonig]

121. 653.8K at 11AM eastern n/t

:kick:

[RevolutionStartsNow]

123. Holy smokes! 30k in 1 HOUR?

This is going to be fun...

[Lisa0825]

122. The donation I budgeted for this month has to wait for the house party.

I hope the house party donations will be included. However, I am betting that if they are, only the ones entered online are included in the bat, and lots of folks like me can't donate online with a cc. I wonder how many people out there are also turning in checks that will be included in the final stats for the quarter above and beyond what the bat is bringing in? I am eager to see what the quarter totals are!!!

[madfloridian]

127. There are a lot sending checks instead.

I know our house party will collect quite a bit. You are right, the bat does not include a lot of checks.

[Lisa0825]

124. 684,895 at noon! a 31K increase!

[Rose Siding]

125. Over 50 grand in 2 hours?

That's some kind of hunger for change!

[poskonig]

126. WooHoo!

:kick:

[beyurslf]

128. Almost 700K now.

I think we'll make it by the house parties. The rest will just be for fun. 2 million anyone?

[thinkahead]

129. 713k

another 29k

not a bad hour. :)

[Lisa0825]

130. 713,274 at 1pm! up by 28,379

[dkf]

134. $738,354.25 @ 2pm

The bat is smoking!

[slinkerwink]

135. wow! That's $25,000 in the last hour!

Dean's in a bat slump? Ha, I don't think so!

[RetroLounge]

131. Don't look like much of a slump to me...

:kick:

[w4rma]

132. Maybe you teed a whole bunch of people off, bearfarinthewoods

Because the bat has doubled since you posted this initially.

You should remember that the max contribution is 2,000 dollars. So that's a *whole* lot of people who are teed off.

Then again, maybe the thousands of contributions have absolutely nothing to do with you or yet another mostly irrelevent anti-Dean rant by yourself which I'm wasting time replying to on. :hi:

[mzmolly]

133. Back here quickly to say I just contributed.

Thanks for the heads up... :)

[slinkerwink]

136. The bat is swinging, swinging, and swinging------the ball's over the fence

hahahahaha.......

[Moderator]

137. Locking

4. The subject line and the entire text of the message which starts the thread may not include excessive capitalization, or excessive punctuation.