New U of Iowa poll out today, Thursday 8/9

[JohnLocke]

Caucus Preference Caucus Goer Sample, N=787; 425 D; 308 R]
(Asked of Republican and Democratic Caucus Goers only.)

If your caucus was TODAY, who would you support for president at your caucus?

Among ALL Democratic caucus-goers, Clinton leads with 26.8 percent, followed by Obama and Edwards at 22.3 and 22.1 percent, respectively, and 8.5 percent for Richardson, and 16.2 percent "don't know" (other scattered candidates got a combined 4.1 percent)

But interestingly, among the most-likely caucus-goers, Edwards leads with 26 percent, followed by 24.8 percent for Clinton and 19.3 percent for Obama.

Also, 43.4 percent of Democrats are "very satisfied" with the candidate selection, but only 16.1 percent of Republicans are.

Edwards is viewed as the most electable (32.5 percent "very electable"). That's 8 percentage points over Hillary and 10 percentage points over Obama.

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2007/august/080807UItopline.pdf

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. Do you think the low repuke numbers indicate

that many would go for a third party if the candidate fit better with their ideology?

[Dawgs]

2. This poll was posted last night - statistical dead heat.

[SaveElmer]

3. Third Poll in a row showing Hillary in the lead or tied...

She is making definite progress in Iowa!!!

[rurallib]

5. And yet, I live in Iowa am very active and know but one Hillary

supporter. And she is quavering greatly.

[SaveElmer]

8. Of course...

Well you will be shocked when you see how well she does...

[mruddy]

11. I also live in Iowa and know of zero Hillary supporters.

In discussing politics with fellow Iowans, I almost always hear the "anyone but Hillary" comment.

Just as an FYI - I was a called for this U of I poll.

[SaveElmer]

15. These anecdotal stories always amuse me...

I hear them every election...

How many of us said in 2004 that there was no way Kerry would lose cause no one who voted for Gore would vote for Bush, and certainly a good number of Bush supporters would switch to our side...

My parents always tell me everyone they met voted for McGovern, so how come he lost so badly...

I can tell you I live in Northern Virginia and I know literally dozens of Hillary supporters, including indies and a Republican friend of mine...

In a straw poll here at a fundraiser for the Chairman of the Board of supervisorsz, Hillary won going away...

The absolutely least reliable measurement of a persons true popularity is the anectdotal story...less scientific than an online poll...

So don't be shocked when election night comes and Hillary has either won or come in a very close second in Iowa...

[IA_Seth]

32. If it makes you feel any better...

I live in Iowa and I do know a few Hillary supporters, including one of the bigger names of organized labor in these parts.

It seems like the more activists types are either ambivalent or anti-Hillary, but the run-o-the-mill folks I talk to that vote Dem are usually pretty psyched for Hillary.

For the record, I am not a Hillary supporter, just wanted to chime in.

[Perky]

34. with apologies to Monty Python....

Spin...Spin...Spin...Spin...Spin...Spin...Spin...Spin...Spin...Spin...Spin...Spin...Spin...Spin...


Being in a three way tie given her money and name recognition is not a good place to be,

[draft_mario_cuomo]

4. It is interesting that Edwards does better among likely voters

Edwards gains 4 point among likely voters, Clinton loses 2, and Obama 3. Let's hope this is accurate. Let's hope Clobama's Iowa numbers are inflated and Edwards gets a better than expected victory among those who actually show up. :bounce:

[cascadiance]

26. I think a caucus format will also work better for Edwards too...

I think it worked better for him last time and could also this time as well.

My first primary election that I participated in in 1976 in the Iowa City caucuses there, and with the people all talking amongst each other before voting as that format works, I think that will make it harder for some candidate to "mass market" themselves into the lead without substance to back them.

If Hillary and Obama don't deal with the grass roots concerns of things like rising corporatism, not standing up for the working man, and other issues that Edwards has been speaking of a lot lately, that will resonate with the grass roots and will be echoed quite a bit within the caucus voting areas and might change a few minds if they've been "voting as they've been told" to do by heavy amounts of commercials, etc.

Edwards got a good spike in the last Iowa caucuses he was in. I think he might this time around too.

[slick8790]

6. Everything's in the MoE. Don't get too excited.

Interesting on the "electability" thing though. And I wonder why edwards does better with likely caucus goers than with all.

[superkia]

9. If those polling companies turn out to be dead wrong

we should be allowed to shove their polls in their respective holes.

[MonkeyFunk]

17. how can they turn out to be wrong?

they're not predicting what will happen 6 months from now - they're measuring where people stand TODAY.

The only way to prove them wrong is to do a bigger, better poll - today.

[superkia]

29. Which will never happen. They can put any results they want.

Hopefully enough people will wake up before election time and actually look somewhere other than their tv for some facts on the candidates they support. To me the polls reflect what is being put on tv, not actual poll results. One corporation pumps up certain candidates on tv while another pumps up those same candidates through polls! I don't seem to run into very many Clinton supporters here in Maryland but somehow she is the dominate candidate? I don't understand how? When I talk to people, they sound like they would support Kucinich by listening to whats important to them but no one seems to know who he is.

[BigDDem]

30. "One corporation pumps up certain candidates on tv

while another pumps up those same candidates through polls!"

Could you please provide a few examples of this?
Thanks!

[superkia]

33. I was making a statement on how I see things, luckily Im not perferct, too much pressure!

Every news channel here in Maryland covers Clinton probably 70% of the time, after she called Obama out, he gets about 20%, Edwards maybe 8% and then the other 1.8% for Biden and Dodd and maybe .2% for Kucinich. Before Clinton called out Obama on the debate, she was covered almost 100% with no other mention of other candidates.

Almost every poll they report on, they show Clinton also dominating and declare her to almost be unbeatable. Makes no since to me because I don't think it reflects the people I have come across.

[wyldwolf]

7. I predict Edwards win Iowa, Clinton in second

... Edwards' win in Iowa will be good enough to give him second place in New Hampshire, while Clinton wins New Hampshire.

[slick8790]

21. Agreed on both counts.

For all intensive purposes, Obama would be out then, which is a shame since i do like him (just like others better).

[Rambis]

27. Agree

I live in the most liberal town in Iowa and Hillary is not well like here but Bill still is. The Pugs are backing her with tons of cash hoping to throw a wrench into things but it won't work.
Edwards wins Iowa-

[Dawgs]

35. "I predict" 4-5 months before the election.

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

[ananda]

10. I am only listening to candidates who ..

.. speak and act for the poor and working classes.

Go Edwards!

[emilyg]

13. Yes. Edwards understands being poor.

:sarcasm:

[draft_mario_cuomo]

16. He grew up poor nt

[TwilightGardener]

22. He grew up working-class, if I'm not mistaken. Poor, to me, means

no job, on welfare, no shoes, no indoor plumbing, ketchup sandwiches. Edwards' upbringing was more financially secure than mine, and I certainly don't consider myself having grown up poor.

[emilyg]

23. Agree.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

24. Your family not having enough money to pay the $50 bill for your birth seems to be poor to me nt

[dalaigh lllama]

12. I wonder if the 56.6% of Democrats

who aren't "very satisfied" with the candidate selection are Gore supporters. :think:

[ecstatic]

14. He is the most electable. We can't make Hillary a man or Obama white

:shrug: :sarcasm:

I'm not sure he'd ever get my vote after co-sponsoring the IWR, but some people are more tolerant of war mongering.

[TwilightGardener]

18. People--the REAL story--in the equivalent poll of Republicans, Obama comes in THIRD!

He beats both McCain and Thompson!!! Is there any question who we should nominate?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

19. Obama is not the candidate that fares the best in Iowa general election trial heats

As is the case in most states, another candidate does better against Republicans in Iowa. ;)

[TwilightGardener]

20. Not getting you here--when Republicans are allowed to choose

who they prefer from EITHER party, in this poll, they choose Obama. Over their OWN candidates. Hillary and Edwards were not chosen--just Obama. And Obama has been beating Hillary in head-to-head matchups against Repubs for quite some time now (as does Edwards). Obama's kicking ass, and you cannot deny that.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

25. The last GE Iowa poll I saw had Edwards winning 54-40 over Ghoul, Obama winnng 49-44

Obama does well in trial heats but Edwards usually does better (although BO usually outpaces HRC). Iowa is no exception. Obama has 7% support among Republicans. The difference likely is among independent voters, a much larger bloc that Democrats can tap into. Among Republicans getting 15% would be a great result, 20% a miracle. Among independents we can shoot for 60% in Iowa.

In short, my point is if we are going to nominate someone based on electability it should be Edwards.

[mruddy]

28. Something this poll didn't reflect is Richardson's growing popularity.

Talking with fellow Iowans, I have yet to hear anyone say anything negative about Richardson. Alot of folks I've talked with are very curious about him. Richardson's ads have been running on local tv stations & have generated alot of interest.

[Milo_Bloom]

31. OUCH!!

That doesn't bode well for any of the candidates. Nearly 60% of democrats are not completely satisfied with the candidates and WORSE nearly 70% of democrats doubt the electability of the candidates?