For posterity: What are your political predictions for 2004?

[bushclipper]

List them. Explain them if you want to. If you are flamed for them, ignore it. They are, afer all, YOUR predictions.



1. Dean wins the democratic nomination - but it is closer than Dean supporters think it will be.

2. Leading up the the Convention, the DNC pressures Dean to choose Wesley Clark as his running mate. After several days of consideration, Dean declines.

3. Ralph Nader does run, but isn't a significant factor, garnering less votes than in 2000.

4. Bootleg footage of Micheal Moore's new film, "Fahrenheit 911" is "leaked" to the internet on the eve of the Republican National Convention. The press covers it extensively. Karl Rove leaves White House in cover-up scandal that follows.

5. Bush replaces Cheney with Guilianni on the GOP ticket.

6. Colin Powell announces he will not rejoin Bush should he win again.

7. Bush leads Howard Dean 59% to 30% one month before election with 11% undecided. Deans says "Confident we can close the gap."

8. Dean wins 10 states in his loss in the general election.

9. Surprisingly, Democrats garner majority in the House and begin private investigations into Republican voter fraud in the 2000, 2002, and 2004 elections and 9/11 Bush complicity. This is leaked to the press.

10. Biggest topic at Christmas dinner 2004: Will articles of impeachment be introduced?

[killbotfactory]

1. Prediction

Dean will win the democratic nomination by a landslide.
Dean will campaign strong during the summer, taking Bush to task and calling Bush a coward for not committing to debates, while Bush hides in a spider hole at his Crawford ranch.
The RNC convention/9-11 milking publicity stunt goes horribly awry as millions of new yorkers protest outside the gates, and tarnish Bush's image as a "popular war-time president".
Dean wins with 70% of the vote in the general election.
Rush Limbaugh has a heart attack when he hears the news in a jail cell.
Bush weeps openly and calls Dean an "asshole".

...

Sure I'm optimistic, but a year ago I thought Dean would be lucky just to get a universal health care plan on the democratic agenda by this time. I think I'm entitled to a little optimism.

[bushclipper]

4. Sure you're entitled to optimism. They are YOUR predictions

[polpilot]

14. Dead on. The National Guard mobilization cinches the race for Dean as

every state is now pulled into this murderous illegal war for oil. Dean 67% popular vote.

Dean '04...

[jsw_81]

2. Mine

1. Dean wins Democratic nomination by a landslide, sweeping Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Super Tuesday.

2. Lieberman refuses to endorse Dean.

3. Dean selects either Bill Richardson or Bob Graham for VP.

4. Dean narrowly defeats Bush in November.

5. Bush, like his father before him, issues dozens of pardons to his friends and associates before leaving office.

[quinnox]

3. A few

here are a few predictions.

1. Dean does not win the nomination. His mile long but inch deep support crumbles as the primary season unfolds and questions about his record, lack of national security experience, and sealed papers continue to dog his campaign.

2. Clark, Gephardt, or Edwards wins the nomination. This is the best I can do, it is hard to see who might prevail.

3. Bush runs into a major scandal early next year that causes his numbers to tank. By the time the election comes his campaign is mortally wounded, and the Democrat beats him easily.

4. The Dems pull out a surprising upset in the Senate, and win many close races. The Dems win back control of the Senate, but the GOP remains in control of the House.

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[quinnox]

17. You have obviously been watching too much Fox News

At least you are hanging out here, maybe a little truth will seep in.

[jfxgillis]

5. Are you saving/bookmarking this thread?

Here's my number one prediction:

Bush wins the popular vote--by maybe as much as a million votes--but loses the Electoral vote leaving the Republicans stunned and speechless, with no moral authority to present a grievance, even a theoretical grievance.

Number two, and boy does this HURT but objectively I gotta go with it:

Red Sox rise, Yankees fall, but the Curse of the Bambino continues as the Red Sox get blindsided by a surprise team, either Baltimore/Tampa for the AL pennant or the Cubs for the World Series.

[bushclipper]

6. Play fair. Political predictions. Unless you think the GOP rigs the ALCS

[jfxgillis]

11. Laugh.

I'm confused. You mean Red Sox/Yankees is just a game?

I never thought of it that way before.!

[jsw_81]

8. LOL

Bush wins the popular vote--by maybe as much as a million votes--but loses the Electoral vote leaving the Republicans stunned and speechless, with no moral authority to present a grievance, even a theoretical grievance.

Wouldn't that be hilarious?

[jfxgillis]

15. It's a DISTINCT possibility. Think about it.

Some great portion of Bush's poplarity boost comes from the regions/states that he already carried, based largely on culture-war wedge issues and "war on terror" junk.

If he gets an extra 150,000 votes in Texas, who cares? If he carries Florida by 100,000 this time, who cares?

If conservatives in California cut his deficit by 450,000, who cares?

If Dean or Kerry win the nomination and get HAMMERED in Dixie for being "Yankee libruls," but they carry states closely elsewhere based on, well, the fact that the rest of the country isn't the South, we could get a reversal of last election.

[HFishbine]

21. And if that happens

add, Gore is nominated to the Supreme Court.

[mouse7]

23. I like Gore, but he's not a lawyer

John Edwards will be looking for work and he IS a lawyer. Put Edwards on the Supreme Court.

[HFishbine]

35. Edwards

would be the bomb as attorney general.

[mikehiggins]

7. Your list

1. Yup
2. Nope. Never Clark. Maybe Graham, maybe General Zinni if he'd run.
3. Nope. Doesn't run. Can't get on any state ballots
4. Yep, but nobody cares.
5. Yup
6. Powell leaves by mutual consent. Cites health as reason.
7. Bush leads from day one. Embarrasses Democrat at debate by not swallowing his own tie.
8. GOP sweep. Vermont goes GOP.
9. GOP retains control of Congress. Bush readies appointments for SCOTUS
10.Biggest topic at Christmas Dinner 2004: What are those prison camps for that Tom Ridge is building in Utah?

[jsw_81]

9. Vermont goes GOP?

:eyes:

Vermont may elect liberal Republicans (i.e. Jeffords) from time to time, but it will NOT support Bush or Cheney. Ever.

[mikehiggins]

13. My list

1. Dean gets nominated
2. Dean loses big time.
3. Everything goes downhill from there in a hurry. The Rupublic that Franklin wished would survive, collapses. Chaos rules, economic depression, terrorism and military reversals overseas leads to martial law being declared.

Freedom in America ends after a 238 year run.

But, I'm probably being optimistic.

(edit: corrected number of years freedom and democracy in America will have survived before Bush's reelection.)

[HFishbine]

22. Ah, the paridigm of fear will not die. (n/t)

[janx]

25. It's too ingrained to die, Fishbine.

It's become a fully ingrained factor of the American psyche, thanks primarily to television.

[BootinUp]

24. Seconded

no reason to retype that depressing stuff.

[Lefty48197]

10. Ahnold will morph into Ronald Reagan

As the California economy continues to crumble, while the right wingers are allowed to raid the cookie jar, RAhnold will resort to cheerleading sessions in the face of natural disasters, speeches over actions, and deceit over truthfulness.
Boy, I've really stuck my neck out, haven't I?

[mouse7]

16. Here we go...

10) Kerry borrows more money, ends up going in hoc an average of more than $100 per vote recieved.

9) Dennis Kucinich and J-Lo marry. NOW, Kucinich gets press coverage.

8) Both Sharpton and CMB get more votes in South Carolina than Kerry, Lieberman, and Gephardt

7) Sharpton gets more votes in SC primary than Kerry, Lieberman, and Gephardt combined

6) Kerry and Gephardt out before Super-Tuesday, Lieberman, Edwards, and CMB out right after.

5) Dean, Clark, Sharpton, and Kucinich stay in campaign through the convention.

4) More than 2 million protesters in NYC for Republican National Convention. This protest action is the turning point of the campaign. Day 1 of the RNC will be shut down by protesters surrounding and blocking access to the facility to the delegates. Day 2 onward viewers will tune in expecting speeches find instead the first real coverage of all these new forms of police brutality on the protesters at the convention due to carelessness by police allowing journalists to be pepper-sprayed and beaten changing media attitudes for the rest of the week. Comparisons are made to Chicago '68.

3) President Dean

2) Ms. Manners, Lucretia Baldridge hospitalized for stroke as she tried to determine the "proper title" for Judith Steinberg Dean. ("...Dr. First Lady? First Dr. Lady? Lady First Doctor?...")

1) "Rush Limbaugh, Meet your cellmate, Guido!"

[Robb]

27. You're obviously delusional.

Kucinich will marry Nicole Kidman. :silly:

[For PaisAn]

18. Election 2000 redux

Bush & Co. steal the election again. Not even any attempt at "recounts" this time thanks to no paper trail, Diebold. Unfortunately, everything else is irrelevant.

[Iverson]

31. addendum

Add to that that there will not be any official opposition.

[HFishbine]

19. Okay, here we go

1) Dean wins the democratic nomination, winning all but four states.

2) Clark keeps it interesting by consistently placing second in more than half the states.

3) Nader announces his candidacy, but gets on the ballot in only two states -- no factor.

4) Additional Dean records are unsealed. Surprise, Dean has a pro-business bent. Dean skillfully cuts the issue down the center, appealing to pro-business centrists, while keeping the support of those on the left by insisting he'll improve trade agreements, re-regulate some industries and break up media monopolies.

5) The stock market begins a downward slide almost immeadiately into the new year. It levels off in the summer, but is stuck at Bush innaguration levels. Job growth is anemic: growing slightly during the first quarter, then showing a mix of net losses and gains in the six months before the election. "First president since Herbert Hoover to loose jobs" sticks.

6) Fearing a theocratic government, and with security still iffy in Iraq, Bush puts off the elections previously scheduled for June. This incites further tulmult in Iraq and Americans, once again, start to sour on the wisdom of the war in the fist place.

--or--

Elections are held and a theocratic government is elected. It immeadiatley challenges Bush's privatizations/coorporatization plans for Iraq. Tensions escallate.

--or--

Elections are held and US frontman Chalabi is "elected." International observers question the vailidity of the elections. Violence errupts and Chalabi is assasinated.

7)In a seemingly impossible move toward party unity, current presidential candidates, the Clintons, the DNC, the DLC and Deaniacs pow wow to select Dean's running mate. Edwards, Graham, Clinton, Kerry, Spitzer and John Conyers are all discussed. Clark gets it. (Oh yeah, he accepts.) The convention is one big lovefest and dems unit with vigor.

8) The log jam breaks on the administration secrecy. Over the summer Cheney's energy meeting notes are made public, Rove is revealed as the leaker of Valerie Plame's identity and resigns from the campaign. Karen Hughes takes over. No smoking gun is found, but the public gets enough information about the warnings before 9/11 that Bush takes a hit.

9) Michael Moore's film's official release date is moved up. Opens during the republican convention.

10) Dean's poll numbers against Bush slowly climb from his current 20 point defict. A week before he elction, Bush polls 4 points ahead. Dean's Internet machine goes into overdrive. With massive door-to-door efforts, dems turn out the highest number of voters in two decades.

11) Dean wins it with 288 electoral votes.

[Parrcrow]

20. predictions

1. A prolonged concerted media effort to define Dean as an unelectable McGovern type candidate hamstrings his campaign.

2. Diebold voting machines hand the election to Bush anyway.

3. Supreme Court sits in readiness to circumvent democracy again but will not be needed.

4. Syria is doomed.

5. Colin Powell is not Secretary of State.

6. Richard Perle is.

[adadem]

26. most sensible

list I've read...btw, hasn't Powell already said he won't serve second term?

[Parrcrow]

29. I believe he has said

that he is still willing to serve.
He is increasingly an outsider in this administration at any rate.

and thank you by the way:hi: :hi:

[TeacherCreature]

28. Dean wins

Dean wins the nomination, Dean wins the general and the senate goes deomcratic. The republicans keep a very small margin majority in congress.

[KaraokeKarlton]

30. Dean sweeps the primaries, winning in all (or close to all) states

Dean takes the nomination and Bush & Company attacks relentlessly, only causing Dean to gain more and more strength and get more and more money. Dean defeats Bush in a landslide.

[IndianaGreen]

32. Tom Ridge will declare Orange Alert on Labor Day

1. Tom Ridge will declare Orange Alert on Labor Day and Red Alert in October.

2. The media will declare Bush the winner of the Election before a single vote is cast (most people will be confined to their immediate neighborhoods due to the red alert).

3. I am moving to Canada!

[Padraig18]

33. Mine:

1.) In a surprisingly tight race, Gov. Dean is nominated, and selects Sen. Bob Graham as Veep.

2.) Dean-Graham gets an 11% post-convention 'bounce', and the ticket is in a statistical dead heat with Bush-Cheney at the time of the Republican Convention, according to all major polls.

3.) Massive protests in NYC which coincide with the Republican Convention raise new questions about 9-11 in the electorate's mind, polls show.

4.) Casualties continue to mount in Iraq, and despite the White House's best efforts to 'spin' the news, Bush support for re-election drops to the near-fatal 40% level.

5.) Illinois and Alabama refuse to change their laws and extend the deadline for candidates to appear on the ballot, and the Republican ticket appears on neither state's November GE ballot for the first time in 136 years.

6.) Dean announces his Cabinet choices in October: Al Gore as Secretary of State, Bill Clinton as UN Ambassador, Wesley Clark as Secretary of Defense, John Kerry as Secretary of HHS and John Edwards as Attorney General prove enormously popular with both Democrats and independent voters; Dean-Graham's numbers climb to 52-48 vs. Bsuh-Cheney.

7.) The FBI turns over its findings in the 'Traitorgate' investigation to the Attorney General; Karl Rove resigns amid allegations of involvement; Ashcroft has no choice but to impanel a grand jury.

8.) Cheney suffers a mild heart attack, and resigns from the ticket 'for reasons of health'; Bush asks Colin Powell to serve, but Powell declines. Condoleeza Rice accepts. Bush's re-elect numbers drop again.

9.) Dean-Graham are elected by a 310-228 majority in the Electoral College, with Ohio, West Virginia and Tennessee returning to the Democratic fold.

10.) Democrats regain control of the House or Representatives by a razor-thin margin, and the Senate is split 51-49, until Sen. Olympia Snowe follows the lead of Sen. Jim Jeffords and declares herself an 'independent' who will caucus with the Democrats;; Republicans are stunned.

11.) New House Majority Leader Harold Ford and new Senate Majority Leader Dick Durbin announce a joint panel to investigate voter fraud in the 2000, 2002 and 2004 elections, and also announce a panel to publicly investigate war-profiteering in Iraq and Afghanistan.

[CWebster]

34. Dean will win

if "Democrats" don't assist Repugs in preventing it.