Some observations from eastern Oklahoma

[karlschneider]

I've spent a fair amount of time the last couple of weeks asking just about everyone I meet what they think of the 04 election. I didn't conduct any sort of official poll, but the gist of what I'm hearing boils down to a few personal conclusions. Given that * won the state (this part included) by a sizable margin, there are a lot of disillusioned voters. He is far less popular than in 2000. As to the Dem candidates, there are some interesting reactions. Clark is far and away the favorite (however to be fair I point out that he has been running quite a few TV commercials) with Gephardt a somewhat distant second. I don't think more than 2 or 3 out of any 10 people I've talked with have even heard of, let alone know much about Howard Dean.

Of course this is all very cursory and local as well as completely unscientific, and I have not yet completely settled on a candidate, and will of course support who ends up with the nomination, but I have to say that I do not believe Dean can beat Bush. I do believe Clark can, however. As ridiculous as it sounds to informed and intelligent people, Dean's somewhat odd 'curl of the lip' as it were, puts off a lot of folks who unfortunately care more about those kinds of things than about important issues.

To me the most important thing is to get rid of the smirking asshole squatting in the WH...and to accomplish that is a daunting task.

[jsw_81]

1. My observations from the state of Washington

10,000+ people turned out to see Governor Dean speak in Seattle last August. Dean signs and bumper stickers are all over the place. Thousands have pledged to caucus for Dean next February. Clark? Who's Wesley Clark? I haven't seen or heard anyone around here supporting Wesley Clark. Not one. And unlike Oklahoma, Washington will actually be in play next fall.

[MidwestMomma]

3. Way to win the hearts and minds of Oklahomans

Nice to know you can so arrogantly write off a whole state.

[quinnox]

4. No, Oklahoma is very important

It is one of the earliest primaries, besides Iowa and New Hampshire.

[Rose Siding]

7. NO one said it wasn't important.

[karlschneider]

9. Oh? And just how would you interpret this from the previous post

"And unlike Oklahoma, Washington will actually be in play next fall."

[lastliberalintexas]

14. Hmmm,

that we actually have a good chance of winning Washington and that it's likely that we'll lose Oklahoma next November? Sorry if you saw anything more sinister in there. :shrug:

Calm down a little. I wouldn't take offense if a Dem said Texas is unimportant right now- we are after all. Hell will freeze, thaw and re-freeze before we go Dem in 2004. Washington (and a whole mess of other states) actually ARE more important, electorally anyway, to Dems than OK or TX in the short term. Sorry if that offends you.

[karlschneider]

6. I have a lot of close friends in Seattle, they all know perfectly well who

Clark is. I have nothing at all against Dean, I'm just telling you what people around here say. But of course we're just dumb Okies, nothing like the highly sophisticated folks in WA.
:eyes:

[SahaleArm]

17. You bet they do - This is simply a phoniness from the Dean camp

I'm sure the 2000 people we handed flyers to when Michael Moore was in town know who he is. People who go to caucuses are well informed.

[Myra]

41. I think you handed a flyer to me as I came out of the theater SaheleArm!

Were you on the corner where the Paramount entrance/exit are?

Uh, the lack of Dean people distributing literature
was very noticable at that event.
I was with a friend who is a Dean supporter,
even campaigns for him and has a yard sign and a bumper
sticker, and she was complaining about it.

In fact, at Ivins/Franken all of the volunteers I saw
were Kucinich.
And at Moore they were a mix of Kucinich, Clark, and
I think Kerry. Maybe a couple of others, but I didn't see
one Dean sign at either.

And these (The Opera House and the Paramount) are venues
with thousands of seats.

[SahaleArm]

45. Yep, we had about 15 volunteers before and after...

standing at the entrance/exits to hand out literature. I was handing out literature at the main entrance after the show. It was a pretty successful event, with Moore giving a pitch for Clark. He seems to be giving that pitch at most of his events. Are you coming to the meetup on Jan-6th? Only a month to go before the caucuses:).

[Toucano]

8. Please don't write people off.

That's the 1976 Election with Carter/Mondale counties in red. Ford/Dole won the state by 1.2%.

Everything is up for grabs.

[jsw_81]

11. That was 27 years ago!

In 2000 Bush beat Gore in Oklahoma by over twenty points. It will not be a competitive state next year.

[karlschneider]

12. Don't be so cocksure. We elected a Dem governor recently.

n/t

[MidwestMomma]

18. But I thought Dean was not about 'politics as usual'

This is exactly how the DNC/DLC marginalizes so many voters in so many states. 'You are not electorally significant' 'You are not a competitive state'

Funny how one Dean supporter will shout how great it is that Dean has attracted such diverse voters as Punx for Dean but then another can write off a whole state as not important because it's not competitive.

Which is it? Is every voter important to Dean or not?

[lastliberalintexas]

21. Every voter

should be important to all of our Dems. But the reality is that we do have limited resources and we will have to fight in those states where we have the best chance of winning. While I don't think that we should just write off ANY particular state(s), I think it's foolish for any Dem nominee to spend as much time in Texas as in California.

At this point in time, it's up to my local county Dem club to get voter turnout higher and increase the viability of Dem candidates. WE must take responsibility for that- we can't depend on any of the Dem presidential candidates being able to do that for us. Politics is not a spectator sport, despite the implication by many of this board (not necessarily you, MM).

I'm continually amazed, though, at the attacks on Dean or his supporters for such common sense statements. Again, I think ANY of our Dems must run a smart campaign- and that includes knowing which states really are battleground and which are lost for now.

[Toucano]

22. And I thought the campaign was about optimism

and hope and voter turn-out and taking back our country.

It's just too early to admit defeat anywhere. Keep your confidence up! :hi:

[tishaLA]

44. How great is it that you have that Ella pic!

I'm too slow to figure out how to do those things...and I just love Ella.

[SahaleArm]

16. Dean has ~2500 pledged attendees out of 50000+ caucus goers.

Have you ever attended a caucus before? 2500 won't get you a victory. WA State is not in play; if anything Oregon is in play with Washington considered a safe blue state.

[Name removed]

34. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[SahaleArm]

35. Latest analysis puts WA State in the blue category

of swing states. The demographics have changed since the last election and will bear out with more Democrats in 2004. I suspect that more Greens will vote Democrat as well making this state a win.

WA State:
Bush (44.6%) 1,108,864
Gore (50.2%) 1,247,652
Nader (4.1%) 103,002
Other (1.1%) 27,915


Oregon:
Bush (46.6%) 713,577
Gore (47.1%) 720,342
Nader (5.1%) 77,357
Other (1.3%) 19,273

http://www.presidentelect.org/e2000.html

[quinnox]

2. Interesting

So many times polls are given that are very misleading, if not totally inaccurate.

It is always good to hear from the street level, this is more likely to be much more accurate than some random poll.

[mgc1961]

5. Middle Tennessee...

...and Nashville, in particular is pretty quiet although the Governor recently said he thinks the Democratic candidate has an edge. I've put bumper stickers on my truck and given several out to family and friends. I've only seen one bumper sticker that openly supports the reelection of the President.
On a more positive note, I walked through some Dean supporters at an intersection near my home. Friendly folks, with no discernable unhappiness expressed by passing motorists. As I talked to one of them the Mayor (D), who lives in my neighborhood, stopped by to say "Hi" too. That was encouraging.

[wryter2000]

10. I hope your unofficial poll is correct

As a social scientist, I know not to argue by example. And yet, all the examples I hear (many of them) echo what you're saying. I've yet to hear of someone who voted for Gore who's come over to liking Bush. I have heard of many people who voted for Bush who are emphatic that they'll never do it again. Many of them are just as angry at Whistle Ass as I am.

Given that he didn't win the first time, I don't see how on Earth he could win this time. I know, I know...I have to look at the data, not what a few individuals tell me, but still...

[Padraig18]

13. Here in good old reliably-Republican central Illinois:

This was solid Bush country in '00; this year, however, it is much less solid. There is very little enthusiastic cupport for Bush, and many people I know who supported him in '00 intend to either vote D, or simply not vote for him at all.

It makes one wonder whether or not Bush's support is like some rivers--- a mile wide and 2 feet deep.

[MidwestMomma]

33. I hope a lot of disappointed Bush voters from 2000 just stay home

That would help us alot. Maybe they will. I could see some of them not voting more than voting for a Democrat. They just don't like us for some reason. Go figure! }(

[TexasPatriot]

42. i totally agree Padraig

but the issue is that if we run a polarizing campaign we're going to energize the pub base for them... its a terrible mistake - much bigger than Gore running a centrist campaign in 2000.

I know a lot of republicans here in Texas who would likely stay home if certain candidates are on the ballot. If there are others, they'll vote. Not that I dont want people to vote - but if they stay home we could pick up a lot local downballot (we're pretty hosed in the congressional races if redistricting is in).

[MidwestMomma]

15. Interesting information from Oklahoma

I'm a Kansan and my state always votes Republican for President so Democrats always write us off. My mom is from Oklahoma and she says when she grew up, everyone was Democrat. She said the state went Republican when people started making money because of the oil.

Have you lived there a long time? Do you agree with my mom?

The few people I talk politics to are sick of Bush too. But there's a lot I don't talk with but overhear that still won't admit he sucks.

I do have a consevative friend that was very pro-bush in the beginning and I couldn't really criticized him much around her. But lately, even she agrees he's bad for the country.

She is very interested in who the Democrats nominate cause she's hoping it will be somebody she can vote for instead of Bush. So there are people out there that are hoping we nominate someone they can vote for but they do not have the anybody-but-bush mentality we all do.

I think with someone like her, it will all come down to what kind of campaign the nominee runs and how well they counteract the Repugs attacks.

So howdy from Kansas. Thanks for your report.

[karlschneider]

23. Howdy Kansan, I grew up here, from 49 when I was 7 til 79 moved to Tampa

for 13 years, then back for various reasons. So I've been an Okie for a total of about 40 years. I don't think the shift to the GOP has much to do with the oil business (which I'm connected to)...the biggest oil boom was really from the 30s to the 60s and has gone downhill since. The state is odd, politically. Most of our State government has been and continues to be Democratic but since the early 70s we have tended to vote for Republicans in national elections. Both our senators and 4 of the 5 House Reprepresentatives are GOP. I've pondered this for a number of years with little sense of understanding - but I suspect it's that
Oklahomans, putatively and mainly being very socially conservative (bible-belt thing, like Kansas) in the rural areas at least, resonate with the perception of fundamentalism in the GOP on a national level which they imagine will support their social agenda, but appear to sense that state government has a more immediate economic impact. I think it's a misperception, but a lot of us "don't think about things we don't think about" (think Inherit the Wind)

But we eat a lot of beef and I suppose there might be an undetected mad-cow epidemic. ;-)

[MidwestMomma]

27. Kansas sounds a lot like Oklahoma politically

Don't you wish you could put on some magic shoes and walk the state and shake those rural people and say...The Republicans don't represent you!!

We're a funny breed up here in Kansas. We don't mind sending the most conservative right-wingers to Congress but we won't elect them locally.

Most be that local economic impact versus the national social agenda thing you wrote about.

Sure wish we could turn it around. I have a dream that one day Kansas will vote Democratic in the presdential election. Most I can ever get excited about on election night is to hope that the Democrat doesn't get beat too badly! :)

Do you think if Clark gets the nomination that there would be a chance the rural conservatives would vote for him? Just wondering...

[karlschneider]

30. I honestly do believe that many conservatives would vote Clark.

Not a majority of course, but his military credentials would (will?) resonate with lots of them. Ironically, one thing on his debit side is that he's extremely intelligent. As you undoubtedly know, that frightens some people. How perverse is that? :eyes:

[DancingBear]

19. Thanks Karl

This tends to re-enforce what many of us Clark supporters surmise, that being that there are heartland states (for lack of a better term) that are looking for a candidate like Clark. Also, I tend to see many Repubs who would never vote for a Dem - unless that Dem is Wes Clark. I have posted before on this phenomenon, and I feel it will come to fruition if Clark is the nominee.

Do we have enough time left to turn the tide? We'll see.

[karlschneider]

28. I believe that we here at DU tend to forget something. We are far more

passionate about politics than 95% of Americans. Well, maybe 85%? Who knows? But most of the electorate thinks about the next election about as much as they do about an asteroid falling in Peoria. Apathy is nothing new and probably is an unavoidable attribute of a populace accustomed to living in a relatively stable and comfortable society.

As I mentioned before, a lot of people will vote for somebody based on nothing more significant than the candidate's necktie or haircut. To many, Mr. Dean just does not come across as an affable, "nice" fellow.
Obviously (I hope it's obvious) that's not how *I* perceive him but
too many voters actually are shallow enough to base their decisions on it. There is no other way to explain how Bush got as many votes as he did! He "seems" like a "good ole boy" (which, in some ways he is...unfortunately that isn't what's needed to run the country.)

Dean has a base of anti-war (mostly) supporters; his positions on other issues are rarely discussed. As much as I admire his stance on Iraq, I just simply do not believe there are enough Americans willing to make a choice based on that single issue to beat Shrub. I've talked to people who dislike Bush "in general" but still think invading Iraq was a good thing to do. Cognitive dissonance is alive and well in the body politic. And I don't know how to fix it, but I do believe Clark (I am just very recently leaning in his direction as you have have deduced) has a better chance to dislodge the pustule sitting in Crawford.

[DancingBear]

29. Again, on the money

I have argued long and hard here that "candidate perception" is a major factor in determining voting patterns in the GE. While many of the folks here spend countless hours in the battle of "dueling Google searches", the majority of voters (I have no reason to discount your 85-95% number) do not do so. This is an argument I make in support of my premise that activism and grassroots support in a primary do not (usually) translate in the GE. If people believe that Dean, for example, has negative qualities, they will not vote for him. Ergo, if people believe Clark has negative qualities, they will not vote for him. These qualities may or may not be real, but they are the perceived soft spots that the other side will go after. We will do well to remember that, in the GE, perception is everything.

I support Clark (unlike you, I have jumped in up to my waist :) ), because I believe he has the better armor in this battle. I believe, (as do you?), that Dean will be hammered for his stance on the war and his flip-flopping on issues. These are the perception issues, and they tell the tale. What looks to many primary voters as a shiny new present will look vastly different to the voter who makes up his/her mind a week before the election. This is why the primary choice is so important, and why we must choose based on the political climate rather than the political candidate.

[karlschneider]

31. Yes, he will be hammered mercilessly for his anti-war stance, and also

I believe on the VT civil-union issue by the wingnuts. And his (correct) position on those 2 issues alone will cost him HUGELY with middle-american "christian soldiers."

Of course, Clark has some of the same negatives on both of them which
might make moot the point, but he does have the enormous advantage (to my political thinking) of being a highly decorated military man (and I mention this not because it particularly impresses me personally, but that it has the potential to influence a lot of generally apolitical voters.)

[DancingBear]

32. The military gravitas

is the trump card here for Clark. Civil unions can and will be offset (somewhat - i.e. people will say "yea, but") by his experience with "don't ask, don't tell", and the military background works well on both counts. We are wise to remember that wingnuts vote, and what many do not realize is that a polarizing candidate such as Dean will bring out many more than voted in 2000.

As for the military appeal - I never served, nor have have ever owned (or even held) a firearm. However, I am politcally "savvy" enough to know what is needed in these times, and that is what Clark has - in spades. It's a one issue race in 2004, the issue is national security, and there is only one candidate out there (no, two - Kerry can do it as well) wo take this issue off the table. Not only does Dean leave it on the table, he shines a floodlight on it!

[Bucky]

20. Here in Houston, it's sorta the same

Among people I talk with there's little but criticism for Bush. But whenever Dean says something to get in the news, the reactions from people is to sort of roll their eyes and say something like "Well, there go the Democrats."

We have a real PR problem in our party. Most people recognize how bogus the Iraq war was and how corrupt the current administration is, but they're expecting the same old same old from us. We need a different kind of Democrat and so far Dean doesn't seem to be cutting it as far as first impressions go.


Send me a DU private message ( ) to become a Teacher for Clark

[lastliberalintexas]

24. Yet another reason

to stay out of Harris county. I'll take Beaumont any day (tho I'd prefer Burlington, DC or Portland, OR to either!). :)

Seriously though- while people know who Clark is here, they're not overly thrilled with him. There doesn't really seem to be much of that mushy middle in SE Texas. People here either love Shrub or hate him- and if they hate him, they don't care who the Dem nominee is. While I know several people who voted for Shrub in 2000 who now say they'll vote Dem, I don't know ANYONE who voted Gore in 2000 who now supports Shrub. Anecdotal, I know, but I think that's happening in every part of the country.

[Dems Will Win]

25. We're all in this together, folks. If Dean wins, it'll be Dean/Clark, if

Clark wins, it'll be Clark/Dean (Clark would never turn down the Dean Dot.com grassroots movement and a Northeast political force).

It's so obvious the writing is on the wall.

Dean/Clark wins all the Gore 2000 states plus OH and WV as well as AR (Clark's home state) = 291 Electoral College votes. We win!

Clark/Dean wins all the Gore 2000 states plus OH and WV as well as AR (Clark's home state) and also NV = 296 Electoral College votes. We win by 5 more!

Given the front-loading of the primaries by the DNC, and the fact that candidates receiving under 15% of a primary or caucus vote receive no delegates, Dean could be the only candidate receivng more than 15%. Dean will theoretically walk away from state after state with almost all the delegates available for pledging as the other 8 divide the vote and keep each other under 15%!

[bain_sidhe]

36. Don't Bet the farm on Dean/Clark

Clark has said he's not interested in a VP spot, and he doesn't strike me as the type to go back on that - especially since Dean called him a liar. He never planned to go into politics - his "retirement plan" was to spend some time making money in business, teach at West Point, and become a golf pro. :shrug: It's still a viable plan, if he doesn't get the nomination.

If you want Clark on the ticket, you'll have to vote for Clark. You won't get him by voting for Dean.

[mourningdove92]

26. At least Dean Campaigned in Texas

how many of the other candidates have even bothered to visit Texas? Yes, I know, Texas=Bush Country, but I have to at least dream it is possible that the Dems could have a good showing in Texas. A lot of Texans are sick of Bush. The candidates need to campaign everywhere. That is one of the things the Dean campaign has been doing. Could have something to do with how high his numbers have been.

[Donna Zen]

37. What other candidates have been to Texas?

Clark

He has also lived there.

He is also from the South.

[moz4prez]

38. Clark stopped over in Austin and (if my memory serves me well) Dallas

sometime after he declared his candidacy.

I was at the Austin rally.

It was a gas.

[SahaleArm]

39. Clark in Texas on Sept-29th...

Retired Army General Wesley Clark swung through Texas on Monday, meeting with supporters in Austin, Ft. Worth, and Witchita Falls.

In Austin, Clark was introduced to a crowd of 800+ by Democratic Rep. Richard Raymond of Laredo, who pointed out that were Bush to be removed in the next election, Texas would likely be called upon to take him back. His comment - "General, if you send him back to us, we'll swallow hard and we'll take him" - was taken with a widespread combination of amusement and dread.

http://www.texasforclark.com/tx_clark.htm

[TexasPatriot]

43. i was at that Clark rally

but, if i remember correctly, Edwards was in Austin at a fundraiser that day as well. Not a big public event like Clark's but it counts all the same. We're not being ignored - we can always vote with our pocketbooks.

[SahaleArm]

46. At least Dean supporters can brag about him going to Idaho...

Where the confederate flag is flown high and proud:evilgrin:

[sandnsea]

40. Oregon - Kerry, Kucinich

The people I know are split between the two, depending on how forgiving they are on the war vote. Oregonians know environmentalists. The only ones for Dean are yuppie business owners who don't give a shit about anything, just like to feel self-important. Clark isn't quite on the radar yet, but I expect he will be shortly.