There was a time when the Republicans could effectively paint the Democrats as "tax and spend" liberals, while portraying themselves as the party of fiscal restraint. This election, however, that logic will be turned on its head, as President Bush is likely to face a Democrat whose credentials as a deficit hawk are surprisingly strong.
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, has a long history of fighting deficits. He co-sponsored the 1985 Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Balanced Budget and Emergency Control Act, which triggered automatic spending cuts if the President and Congress failed to reach predetermined targets (but which ultimately failed to balance the budget). He also backed the Deficit Reduction Act of 1993, which helped Clinton achieve those surpluses. Now Kerry says that if he's elected he'll halve the deficit during his first term in office.
Bush, meanwhile, has been scrambling to restore his credibility with fiscal conservatives. In his State of the Union address, he matched Kerry's pledge to halve the deficit, although Bush gets there through spending cuts rather than by repealing tax breaks for those making more than $200,000 a year, as Kerry would do.
As a first step, Bush has unveiled an austere 2005 budget proposal that seeks to hold the increase in domestic discretionary spending to a mere 0.5%. But there are reasons to doubt whether the Bush budget represents a realistic solution to the country's fiscal woes. For one thing, the 2005 budget doesn't include spending for Iraq and Afghanistan. Bush's own budget director says the cost for Iraq might top $50 billion. And, in order to achieve the goal of paring the deficit to $237 billion by 2009, Bush proposes keeping total discretionary spending virtually flat for the entire four-year period, a goal that budget experts say is politically unachievable. What's more, beyond 2009, the deficit is projected to explode when most of the $936 billion in tax cuts kicks in and the first baby-boomers become eligible for early-retirement Social Security payments.
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