"It's game time."
The previous debates, all 356,897 of them, were the preseason of politics. The warm-ups when the candidates got ready for when the leaves change, the weather turns cold, the races, hot.
Here's where I think we stand. It's pushing October, people are paying attention and the core window to make waves in the next 45 days. Here in New England, we take our Thanksgiving pretty seriously and then there's the Holiday Season, so you better start moving now.
BARACK OBAMA AND JOHN EDWARDSWhat they share is plenty of money, tons of money in Barack's case, and the rallying cry of look at me not Hillary.
At this point, they also both share a glaring, and in Barack's case, monumental failure to make the case that they are alternatives to Senator Clinton. The failure is total and will be complete in another thirty days.
As regards John Edwards, to his great credit, he learned the lessons from the Kerry Titanic Campaign of 2004. However, he misapplied them. Yes, you need something true to yourself to focus on, but the poverty issue is not the most pressing issue of the day, Iraq is.
Right concept, wrong basket of eggs.
But, yes, Edwards is solid on Iraq. In fact, Edwards is solid on just about every issue. And his campaign has executed them well. So why no mojo? No Johnmentum?
I think it has to do with the fact that he has been running for four plus years. He has been in the spotlight too long. The public appears slightly tired with him, the media certainly is and the problem for John Edwards in New Hampshire tonight is quite simple.
He has been here for four years. He is going to win the bronze at the current rate in January. And I just don't see the path for him. A known quantity with clear positions and a well run group (well, well run with the exception of a monumentally mediocre first NH tv spot.)
As regards Barack Obama, too bad he didn't learn any lessons from 2004.
Too bad he has many of the same advisors and strategy that drove Edwards done the tubes in 2004.
Too bad he talks the talk of "hope and change" but walks the walk with the most inner circle DC traditional campaign folks of any campaign (including Hillary)
Too bad he didn't surround himself with more friends and less consultants.
Too bad he hasn't realized that my compatriot Jerome Armstrong was absolutely right - if he had actually been a progressive candidate instead of talking about being a progressive candidate, he would have been the nominee.
Too bad he is going to bring in thousands of new people to the party and leave them disillusioned by the business as usual campaign.
Too bad.
My free advice to Barack Obama is the same advice I gave to John Kerry in October / November 2003. Right now, it should be clear to you that the path you're on ends with you giving a concession speech sometime in early 2008. Guaranteed.
So immediately gather your best and your oldest friends. Jettison the consultants and the beltway advisors. Become true to yourself and give yourself a chance. Worst case? You're giving a concession speech sometime in early 2008. But it's not guaranteed.
SENATOR CLINTONWhen she announced earlier this year, Dave Johnson and I wrote about how her first mission was to shatter the prism of the right. What we meant was Hillary is one of those people who you think you know, but you really don't.
Think of it this way.
Imagine if the only thing someone knew about you was what your worst enemies thought of you. Actually, the worst of what your worst enemies thought of you.
That was everyone's perception of Hillary.
But to her great credit, she has done what she did in New York State where she know has a resounding 81% favorable rating.
She went 'door to door' person to person and re-introduced her self, sans prism.
Here is the result:
Clinton, the national frontrunner, has the support of 43 percent of Granite State Democrats, according to the CNN/WMUR poll, compared to 20 percent for Barack Obama. In a similar poll in July, Clinton led Obama by a narrower margin, 36 percent to 27 percent.
In the poll, 54 percent of those surveyed also said that Clinton has the best chance among the Democratic contenders to beat the Republican nominee, up from 37 percent in July.
Also encouraging for Clinton, 36 percent said she was likeliest to bring needed change, compared to 24 percent who said Obama, who has made change a key theme of his campaign.
That's remarkable.
She is leading in national polls.
She is kicking ass in New Hampshire.
She is inevitable right now, not because she was given the crown, but because she earned it.
If John Edwards and Barack Obama have failed to be alternatives to her candidacy, how does rest of field look?
more...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-boyce/is-it-last-call-tonight-f_b_65897.html
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
