Rasmussen: McCain and Clinton are Neck-and-Neck

[flpoljunkie]

Very interesting...

McCain and Clinton Are Neck-and-Neck
Monday, October 15, 2007

Arizona Senator John McCain has fallen nearly out of the top tier in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination, but he’s still competitive in a general election match-up with Senator Hillary Clinton. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Clinton with just a single point edge over McCain, 44% to 43%.

McCain also trailed Clinton by just one percentage point in September and by two points in August. Those consistent results put McCain in a more competitive position at this time than any other Republican hopeful.

The new survey shows Clinton with a 47% to 41% lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Clinton has led Romney every time we’ve polled this match-up. In September, she had a nine-point advantage.

Clinton currently leads former NYC mayor and Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani by seven and former Senator Fred Thompson by 15. Her lead has been growing steadily over these two in recent months.

Senator McCain is perceived as politically conservative 32% of all voters, moderate by 43%, liberal by 8%. Romney is seen as conservative by 37%, moderate by 36% and liberal by 8%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_clinton_vs_mccain_romney

[gratuitous]

1. Yeah, right

Who'd they poll, the residents of the Arizona Home for the Mentally Feeble? McCain's support among Republicans is measured by the phone booth, but he suddenly jumps to 43% among the general population? I hold no brief for Clinton, but these numbers don't pass the sniff test.

[Bitwit1234]

2. Clear Politics sees it different AND

besides they have the grand total average.

Clinton 48
rudi 41

Obama 44
rudi 42


They add all the different polls and take the averages. So if there are so many polls and you pick and choose the one your candidate is the best in, this shows that there isn't as much neck and neck as you would like us to believe.

TO GET THE CORRECT SCORES IT SEEMS LIKE CLEAR POLITICS WITH IT'S ADDING ALL THE POLLS TOGETHER AND THEN GETTING THE AVERAGE SEEMS LIKE THE MOST CORRECT. Wouldn't you say. Guess not Hillary haters only pick the polls where she is not as far ahead.

[flpoljunkie]

3. Perhaps McCain's unearned "straight talk" reputation compares favorably with her "triangulation"

In any case, I am sure both campaigns are taking notice.

[wyldwolf]

5. or maybe it's further indication GE voters prefer Clinton over Obama?

[durrrty libby]

7. There are some exciting numbers for Hillary in the Ras this week

Check out this article

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_democratic_presidential_primary

[flpoljunkie]

9. Or maybe not...

[wyldwolf]

15. all indication point to it. Hillary does better in GE match-ups.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. He Had To Sell His "Straight Talk Express" Bus Because He's Broke

But maybe you can ride in his van...

[auburngrad82]

4. What it shows is that GOP supporters will support whoever gets the nod

McCain is waaaay back from Guiliani and Romney yet he polls virtually the same in a matchup against the Democratic candidates. It would be nice if our party could be that cohesive, especially since all of our candidates are good candidates.

[liberal N proud]

6. McCain is going to magically come from behind and win it all

That is how they are going to stage this dog and pony show. McCain is the anointed republicon successor of the evil twins bu$h/cheney. He has kissed their ass for the last 6 1/2 years and the payoff will be the nomination at the 08 republicon convention. Senator Craig will not be the only one getting screwed in Minneapolis.

I have suspected them to pull some stunt with McCain while everyone was predicting his demise and he kept right on campaigning when there was no money. Just more dirty tricks from the republican criminals in control of this nation.

[ejbr]

8. Interesting..

McCain thinks Iraq is going fantabulously, while Clinton has been criticizing the war. At first, I was going to say that those who vote for McCain in the general election only are smoking something, but maybe we are missing something about Clinton?

Regardless, I would vote for Clinton's dirty underwear for president before McCain.

[Lasher]

10. Clinton vs McCain: RCP historical average

At one point McCain was ahead of Clinton but now she's ahead by 4.6%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html

If McCain ever had a snowball's chance of getting the GOP nomination he threw that away by supporting Junior's immigration reform bill. Another Rasmussen poll indicates that he would not even be re-elected to the Senate if that election were held today. He's toast.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/arizona_2008_presidential_election

[youthere]

11. Sadly enough, I do know people who claim to be Dems....

that would vote McCain before Clinton.

[durrrty libby]

13. That is most likely due to pure sexism. No matter, she will scoop

up the seniors and a gigantic chunk of female voters

[BeyondGeography]

12. If it weren't for the visuals, he's their best candidate

I don't know if the Pubs will be able to resist the Hair of Mitt at the end of the day. On substance, McCain with his record on campaign finance could attack Clinton as a big money Washington insider and get away with it. His unfavorables are unusually low (in the low 30's) for a guy who has been around as long as he has. But he is the living definition of pale and pasty on camera for a good reason: he's 70 freaking years old. Age proves fatal to us all at the end of the day...

[Lasher]

14. You mean this visual?

[gorekerrydreamticket]

16. Anytime someone quotes the results of a Rasmussen poll, the results should be qualified with....

"among people who actually respond to automated telephone calls..."

From the Rasmussen web page, "About Us", "Methodology":



Rasmussen Reports collects data for its survey research using an automated polling methodology. Scott Rasmussen is a recognized pioneer in this field and has conducted automated surveys involving more than 4 million completed interviews since 1996. He has conducted more macro-sample studies than any other individual or company.

Generally speaking, the automated survey process is identical to that of traditional, operator-assisted research firms such as Gallup, Harris, and Roper. However, we use a single, digitally-recorded, voice to conduct the interview while traditional firms rely on phone banks, boiler rooms, and operator-assisted technology.

For tracking surveys such as the Rasmussen Index, the automated technology insures that every respondent hears exactly the same question, from the exact same voice, asked with the exact same inflection every single time. A person taking our survey tonight will hear the exact same thing that another respondent heard when we began this project in October 2001.
Survey Design

The first step in any survey project is to design the study. For the Rasmussen Index survey, we have a standard bank of questions that are asked each night. Most automated surveys involve 10 to 20 questions.

Following survey design, the Rasmussen Reports' questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that insures appropriate geographic representation. We can ask open-ended questions and later transcribe the recorded responses if a project requires it. We rarely do so.

Survey questions to be asked on a given night can be submitted as late as mid-afternoon on the day of the survey. Typically, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time and Sunday calls from 1 pm to 9 pm local time.

After the calls are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors.