For everyone who thinks Edwards can't catch Kerry...............

[displacedyankeedem]

Please consider the following

Exhibit 1: Remember what chances they gave Edwards in Iowa-less than a snowball's chance in hell if I recall. Yet, come Caucus Night Edwards was right there.

Exhibit 2: ...and remember when the pundits thought SC was gonna be really, really close and Edwards beat Kerry by about 15%.

and finally(and most recently)

Exhibit 3: ....and remember that it was just last week that Edwards was left for dead on the side of the road in Wisconsin(when he was 30 points down), yet come last night it was "too close to call" for a good deal of time(hell, I almost went into shock when I first turned on CNN).

The long and short of this is the following: Kerry couldn't kill Edwards in Iowa, he couldn't finish him off in SC when he had the chance, and he couldn't do it in Wisconsin last night. I've always thought politics is like the NFL-if you let your opponent hang around long enough, eventually they will come back and drop kick you in the ass.

My prediction:Edwards will do just well enough to survive Super Tuesday, the drop kick comes in the week after, primarily in TX and Florida.

The really funny thing is, I don't think the Kerry people see it coming.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

1. I do think Edwards will do extraordinarily well in the south

But I think Kerry sees it coming.

[Nashyra]

2. Edwards is a good guy

but what is he going to run on in the arena of National Security, Foreign Policy? just to name a few. We don't need another president to learn on the job. He'd make a good AG

[PeaceProgProsp]

3. How can they attack him on naitonal security and foreign policy?

By the way, Bush isn't learning on the job. He hit the ground running with his destruction of America.

I think Edwards is more talented and intelligent than Bush and will also hit the ground running, but will use his powers to do good, not evil.

[Tweed]

7. The voters didn't elect Bush during a crisis to "hit the ground running"

While Edwards is certainly more intelligent, I don't think that Americans will elect a president who is going to need major on the job training when it comes to national security and foreign policy.

[PeaceProgProsp]

11. Voters are going to stay home if you tell them there's a crisis

And that that is preventing the candidates from talking about their economic well-being.

And what training does Kerry have that Edwards doesn't have?

[roguevalley]

20. Wisconsin isn't a good measure. It was an open primary. The next will

tell and frankly, I am not going to vote for someone who
still believes that the Iraq war was necessary, we shouldn't
allow allies in the UN to tell us what to do and he thinks
even without the WMD, its still a good thing. I will go back
and post the link to another thread with interviews by Edwards
about Iraq:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=360904

[MurikanDemocrat]

4. It's okay with me if Edwards does well

I think Kerry is the better qualified to be president, and I think he will win the nomination in the end, but I could easily make the transition to get behind Edwards should he be the nominee.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

5. After nearly 25% (24.988%) of the total primary votes have been counted:

After nearly 25% (24.988%) of the total primary votes have been counted (1080 of 4322 electoral votes):

Kerry: 56.48% = 610/1080 votes
Dean: 18.98% = 205/1080 votes
Edwards: 17.59% = 190/1080 votes
Clark : 5.27% = 57/1080 votes
Sharpton: 1.48% = 16/1080 votes
Kucinich: 0.185% = 2/1080 votes
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/scorecard/index.html

[PeaceProgProsp]

9. Take away unpledged delegates, picture is a little different for Dean.

Kerry......... 0.59
Dean ......... 0.13
Edwards.... 0.20
Clark .......... 0.07
Sharpton.... 0.01
Kucinich...... 0

Here are the numbers:
480
105
164
57
12
0

[PeaceProgProsp]

12. Incidentally, counting superdelegates, say Edwards got all Dean's:

Edwards would jump to to within 20% of Kerry (about 56:36).

[Tweed]

13. Incidentally, Edwards will likely get none of Dean's superdelegates." n/t

[PeaceProgProsp]

14. You want to make a bet?

You don't post for a week if Edwards doesn't get one of Dean's superdelegate.

What do you want me to bet?

[Tweed]

15. That would be great for my studying if I lose! I'll take you up on that!

Posting here is addicting, this could keep me away. Would the same go for you? If a week goes by and Edwards doesn't get any of Dean's delegates, you don't post either?

[PeaceProgProsp]

16. Sure. Deal. But only if the window is three weeks.

I think people are going hold their cards for the next two weeks.

But things will shake out the following. week.

What are you studing? PhD candidate, Theater Studies?

[Tweed]

17. Deal, three weeks is fine

Theatre Mangement at DePaul University in Chicago

[PeaceProgProsp]

18. Interesting.

Good theater in Chicago, no?

[Tweed]

19. GREAT Theatre in Chicago

Chicago is quickly becoming the theatre capital of the world. I suggest you visit. I can get you some free tickets. Especially if you visit during your state's primary :)

[Tweed]

6. I think you need Edwards to be your lawyer

Your exhibits are laughable. Exhibits 1 & 3 are proof that Edwards WON'T be able to catch Kerry. Even when Kerry doesn't crush Edwards, it stays close with Kerry on top. Just like how Clark finished above Edwards by a hair quite often as well. If you want to use the past primaries as proof that Edwards will catch Kerry, a 2-15 record goes against that as well as his close defeats to Clark in NH and OK. Edwards is not a closer, luckily for the American people.

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DjTj]

10. Welcome to DU!

:hi:

...it seems like John-mentum is ruling this primary race.

[Lexingtonian]

21. nope

Edwards just does badly with Northerners. C'mon, 18% in New Hampshire doesn't cut it for appeal. Plus, all those Republicans who voted for him as a 'message' to Bush are going back to Bush in the fall- they've got all the organization in place to snag weak conservative leaners up again.

And if he sticks out March 2 and does wonders on March 9, the primaries after that are heavily Northern. The only reason he bothers me for March 9 is that should Kerry get the nomination, it will take a lot longer to get Florida Democrats on board if they get baited by, and they will imagined switched from, a relative conservative like Edwards.