Got a feeling the top tier may have shifted?

[Skip Intro]

maybe not Hillary, Obama, Edwards anymore?


I kinda got a feeling Biden's gonna make a splash in Iowa.



I think the negative stuff from Obama and Edwards will take them down. If so, what does the top tier look like afterwards?


I see a battle between Hillary and Biden.


I'm ok with either.


edited to correct a misspelling...

[IndianaJones]

1. Obama's done. nt.

[Skip Intro]

2. I agree.

Feeling the same way about Edwards too.

wow - they just crashed - no slow burn out, they just crashed

[IndianaJones]

3. Edwards is still alive. Iowa is all or nothing for him. nt.

[Rambis]

22. He just ran his first TV add in Iowa

He has not had any adds on TV at all and he is still with Hillary and Obama. This corp media idea that Edwards is fading is exactly what Rupert Murdoch wants the country to believe. He is backing Hillary and RG with big bucks. If either one gets elected he wins because of the media coverage they would generate. If Edwards gets elected it is an unknown and that is the last thing any of the corp media outlets want. Hence the lame ass 400$ haircut story. How long can you report that? Certainly not for 4 years let alone potentially 8.

[mark414]

53. he's in a dead heat in Iowa with Hillary

[LakeSamish706]

4. I wouldn't be counting Kucinich out at this point either. n/t

[BigDDem]

21. The guy at 2%?

[illinoisprogressive]

5. Skip, I don't think anyone really knows.

It all depends on the caucus goers and in nh you have indies who won't say who they really will support and don't make up their minds until right before voting. same with Iowa.

[CyberPieHole]

6. I think Obama will come in third or fourth...

I think Biden is on his way up...at least hoping he is...

[emilyg]

7. K

[PatSeg]

8. I've felt this shift coming

This last debate has made a big difference and I see Biden gaining a lot of traction in Iowa.

[calteacherguy]

9. LOL.

no

[Basileus Basileon]

10. On DU? Sure. In the real world? Doubt it.

Still Hillary the presumed nominee, Barack holding onto a dwindling shot at an upset, and Edwards hoping for a miracle.

[maximusveritas]

45. Yep, that's how I see it

There are little pockets of the internet where you see increased support for candidates like Biden, Dodd, or Ron Paul, but they have little significance.

[Froward69]

11. This past friday, I went to the

"Drinking Liberally" group meeting, and still never found a Hillary suporter. the neo-con tv station was there also. they reported that there were no Hillary supporters on tonites broadcast.

I found most of em were waiting on the Iowa/NH outcomes to make up their minds. the most favorable in the bar though, was Joe Biden. The group was about 75 Democrats all under the age of 40.

My three Iowa Friends are going to caucus for Joe Biden.
Two more are going home to Iowa, to caucus For Joe also.

[PatSeg]

29. That is reassuring

I still haven't met any Hillary supporters in my non-cyber life. Most people I know aren't really paying close attention yet.

[gateley]

12. We Biden supporters have long believed that if more people had the opportunity

to see and hear Biden they would like what they saw. His Giuliani line during the debate in NH garnered a good amount of media coverage and I'm hoping as a result, voters will begin to at least LISTEN to what he's saying and ultimately (spoken by a die-hard Bidenite) see in him what we do.

Especially with Iraq, Iran and now Pakistan, his expertise and understanding of the ME would be a strong point. (As a matter of fact this morning I heard him say he'd already exchanged calls with Musharraf.)

At the very least, I think he'll make a stronger showing in Iowa than has been predicted. It's my fervent hope he'll place in the top three.

From my mouth..... :)

[CTyankee]

26. I'd like your opinion as a Biden supporter. I'm leaning Biden myself and what I wonder

is about his ability to rally a majority of voters nationwide being from such a small state. Things may have changed now, but in the past we used to look at what the candidate brought with him in Electoral College votes and those of his running mate. Let's face it, Delaware is not a powerhouse except for some banks (of course, that may make a difference; I don't know).

Does his being from Delaware matter nowadys, since votes are not horsetraded in conventions any more? I'm sure you've heard this argument and have some points in rebuttal. I'd like to know more...

Thanks and good luck!

[gateley]

27. Hi. I can only speak for myself, of course, but I think at this time in our

country we're looking past the strategy and looking for the individual who we best think can help us. It never even occurred to me to consider the number of electoral college votes a candidate could potentially bring.

That would be an EXCELLENT question to post and see what DUers feel about it. There are countless people here who understand the realities far better than I. What do you think? :7

[CTyankee]

31. It may just be my outdated opinion. After all, Bill Clinton was from Arkansas!

But you are right; Biden's attraction for me comes from my increasing concern that we have someone who knows what he's doing in foreign policy first, as long as the candidate is good on other issues I care about: health care, abortion rights, civil rights, the environment.

Frankly, I am terrified when I think of the mess Bush has left us and the world. We are in a helluva fix and need a clear thinker with LOTS of foreign policy smarts to help us get out of the hole we are in.

Interestingly, I have a family member who has worked as a political consultant for Biden and he has been saying all along that we should consider Biden, he would be a great president. Events are proving him right...

I went to the Biden group here at DU but couldn't post cuz I'm not yet a donor. Guess I'll have to pony up a contribution so I chat online with you guys!

[gateley]

32. I think I remember a post from you - is it your son-in-law who's working with Biden?

I was going to ask what an "insider" thought of him, but I lost the thread. It encourages me that he feels Biden would be a great president.

I think Biden's got you covered on all the issues which are important to you. Those issues are VERY important to me, too, and Biden's approach and commitment to each are exactly what I'd hope they'd be. Also domestically he's furious about our liberties being eroded.

But the most URGENT issue we face now is indeed the Middle East. He has such a vast understanding and so much experience. i heard him say yesterday morning that he'd been exchanging phone calls with Musharraf - he's already established dialogue with the global leaders which is crucial right now. (If you didn't see Face the Nation yesterday morning and would like to, let me know - I'll send you a link.)

In addition to the horror I feel with the situation Bush has led us into, I fear we don't know the half of it. More than any of the other candidates (and I honestly like them all) my sense is that we'd be in the best hands if Biden becomes president.

By the way, you only need to contribute $5 - $10 to gain access to the DU Inner Sanctum. It's worth it, IMO. Our Biden group is a fabulous resource comprised of fabulous people - we're a true team. Hope to see you there soon! :hi:

[CTyankee]

41. Yes, my son in law works with the Martilla firm in Boston, on a consulting basis,

Martilla has worked on the Kerry campaign but also with Biden. My SIL is really impressed with him and likes him a lot. His specialty is focus groups. He did focus groups in 3 states in 04, one was Wisconsin which was where he found so much dissatisfaction with Teresa Kerry among the voters in his group. That didn't bode well.

I'll see him at Thanksgiving and ask if he has been back to Washington to work with Biden. He may not have because he worked on foreign policy issues, not campaign stuff, before Biden's campaign got going. But I'd like to get his feedback on the guy, even if anecdotal, and let you know.

If you have a link to FTN that includes is an actual transcript, I would love it. My crappy computer doesn't do videos and I must get this remedied.

I like Biden people on DU. You all seem so SANE! What's the matter with you, don't you know you have to get pissy with everyone who disagrees with you here? LOL.:hi:

[gateley]

46. Oh yeah - Teresa Kerry. I'd forgotten about all that hoopla.

Let me look for a transcript - I'll let you know either way.

And thanks for the kind words about the Bidenites - we'd love to have YOUR sane voice added to our choir!

[CTyankee]

52. Well, the Teresa thing was a real downer.

Let's just say she did not go over well in the midwest. And Wisconsin's got some good liberals!. However, it probably wasn't done in Madison. I'll ask my SIL where he did this one.

Yeah, you Biden guys get the best behaved prize on DU! I can't believe the venom in every other thread I read nowadays here. It's just amazing and all it devolves into is insults, back and forth, like school children.

The race is getting interesting, don't you think?

[gateley]

56. I couldn't agree more with the "interesting" adjective. It's a unique time in

our country. We're faced with the horror of our troops and innocent people dying, with our shameful reputation in the world, our economy on the precipice, our civil liberties being eroded, our appeal to terrorists, and I could go on as you well know.

Unbelievably, we have Republican candidates who are trying to promote more of the same, see nothing wrong with what this administration has done, and even MORE unbelievably, many citizens are of the same mind!

We Democrats have a group of intelligent, experienced candidates who all would do well in the WH. And yet even though their main objectives are the same, there are so many differing approaches and 'solutions' they offer that it makes one's head spin.

As frightening and sad as this time is, it's invigorating to feel we're honestly on the brink of change - of reining in the insanity and settling down (relatively) in to a more peaceful, fulfilled existence.

With so much at stake, I think that's why we're all so passionate about our candidates. We're convinced that s/he will be the best chance we have of saving ourselves.

[murbley40]

66. $10.00 will do it.

[Trajan]

13. I think those who are willing to stick it out there and make predictions like this ...

Should write it down somewhere in DU, and after the actual contests occur; We can check to see who knows WTF about this stuff, and who we might want to offer a few grains of salt .....

In predictions: Success breeds respect ..... Lack of success breeds something else .....

So: Put your money where your mouth is ..... Let's hear it .... Loud and Clear ....

[skyblue]

14. Biden = Best Position.

If Rathugs decide to build and create new scare tactics (my guess is that most CTists must believe they will use scare tactics) and the public starts to believe the scare tactics presented to them by the media then Biden is our best bet. He is the most knowledgeable on foreign policy, he's not a female (when you're thinking war probably the stereotype is aggressive male football player), his focus is more on foreign policy than domestic issues (which is important because the Rathugs/Media will be slanting it towards making foreign policy/war the highlight), he looks like many past presidents-- Hell! He even looks Bill Shat!! I want Capt. Kirk at the helm. I think lookism and sports are things that do matter to American voters as well.

[Inuca]

24. About scare tactics

"The Republican Party has won two elections on the issue of fear and terrorism," Hagel said. " going to try again." http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-gitmo24sep24,0,3276008.story?coll=la-home-center

Of course they will try again, that's almost the only "card" they've got. And agree with your arguments that Biden will be in the best position to fight it.

[PatSeg]

28. I see your point

I think overall Biden would be the best answer for all the scare tactics the republicans throw out there, but I think he's looks better than Bill Shatner!

Seriously, we do know what their playbook will look like, and the appropriate response would be Joe Biden, the candidate I believe the republicans DON'T want to run against.

[iverglas]

33. watch out

Bill Shatner is a Canadian ...

[PatSeg]

35. I'm more of a Patrick Stewart fan

I'm prone to the more thoughtful diplomatic type.

[iverglas]

36. you mean you prefer the

BALD types.

But watch out. Patrick's a furriner too. I'm sensing a lack of patriotism here ...

[PatSeg]

37. Stewart made Bald Beautiful!

And sadly, no American can compete with that voice. Star Trek nerd first, patriot second.

[iverglas]

38. well, if Cardassians qualfied for the office

my choice would be Gul Dukat. Gimme moral ambiguity every time.

[PatSeg]

39. I think we have enough "moral ambiguity" with the republicans

right now. Do you think Cardassians think waterboarding is torture?

[DFW]

15. I'm a little surprised Obama hasn't capitalized better on his personal charisma

He's such an impressive man in person, it's a mystery to me his campaign management hasn't
gotten him on more talk shows, and had him more in the media.

Biden is just amazing on camera, but I have yet to see him inspire in public. He is so cool
under fire on camera, he is made for TV. The polls haven't yet made him into a serious threat
to any of the "top" three, but that could change, and both Howard Dean and John Kerry (or Bill
Clinton) will tell you.

But Biden has a LOT of ground work to do if he is going to be more than an "also-ran." The big
question is if he has the time and the organization to do it.

It is too early at this point to rule out any surprises (including a Hillary cakewalk, which
would be a surprise to me, but no more so than a big Biden win).

[mmonk]

16. Iowa sets up well for either Biden or Edwards

in my estimation. Those that currently back candidates with less than 15% will ultimately determine who gets momentum and who loses it.

[Bullet1987]

17. Correct me if I'm wrong,

but the only polls that have come out post-debate have been national polls. I have yet to see an Iowa or NH poll, so the Clinton supporters shouldn't get too cocky about Obama and Edwards just yet. It their HOPE that Edwards and Obama destroys each other...doesn't mean it'll happen though. Biden will make a splash I think, but there's nothing out there to suggest he jumps all the way to #2 just like that. The person who has more to lose is Edwards.

[surfermaw]

58. mmonk, you know of what you speak

Edwards all the way, a Biden victory would mean 8 more years of Jeb Bush, however an Edwards & Biden ticket sound good to me.

[Seabiscuit]

18. Looks like I stumbled into a pro-Biden thread. Oops.

Nothing against him, but..

Oh, never mind.

[Trajan]

19. Every King must have his Kingdom ....

As well as suppliant subjects ...

Welcome to the subjects ....

[MonkeyFunk]

20. No

I don't get that feeling, and the polls don't reflect any such change.

Edwards is still a distant third, and Biden is almost negligible.

But of course, it's still early.

[Adelante]

23. I doubt the debate changed anything

It's the very last weeks before the caucus I would start noticing trends in Iowa with any sense of stability. A debate two months ahead could well be ancient history by then.

[Dinger]

25. That'd Be Nice (nt)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. I Like Biden

He doesn't bash other Democrats...

We'll see...

I still think Hillary and Obama will be the only ones left standing after IA...

But good luck to Joe and (most) of his followers here...

[gateley]

34. Ha!

That''s funny.

Even if I'm not one of the followers you're sending good wishes to, I like YOU, DSB! :hi:

[Broke Dad]

40. We're seeing more of Biden in Iowa . . .

but his sponsorship of the 2005 Bankruptcy bill is like Roundup weed spray on his prospects. Rising, but not as much as it looked like he might in August or September.

Everyone here agrees Biden knows his foreign policy stuff and talks like an adult. But, Delaware is where all the corporations go to screw their shareholders. The BIG MONEY ring in Joe Biden's nose plays out here in Iowa about as well as Joe Lieberman's support of the Iraq War. NOT! Biden has so little support, that he is busing Iowa pols like State Senator Joe Seng to every Biden event just so he can show us the face on an Iowa supporter. At the Cedar County Annual Spaghetti Supper last Saturday night, there was State Senator Joe Seng miles and miles from home. The local Biden supporters didn't even fill a table!

Plus, Biden, Dodd and Kucinich have no ground game in my part of Iowa. Edwards has a grass roots organization (I'm on the call and email chain). Obama is doing door-to-door canvassing. Hillary is bombing us with a leaflet a day. Biden is like the visiting college professor who gives a great lecture on developments on the other side of the world and then screws you over on a couple of trick essay questions on how your free liter of Pepsi that you got to fill out a Citicorp credit card will not cost you the equivalent of a house payment a month for the rest of your life.

[Debi]

44. Are you saying that Obama doesn't have support b/c he had to 'ship'

in Tom Daschle from South Dakota? Or Clinton doesn't have support b/c she had to 'ship in' Marion Berry from Arkansas? Rob Tully drove all the way from Polk County to Cedar County to speak for John Edwards - does that translate into no support close by for the Senator? Cedar County and Scott County are neighboring counties - heck, Jeff Danielson in from Black Hawk for Dodd didn't have that long of a drive.

I don't know your discontent for Biden - beyond your hatred of the Bankruptcy Bill - and I don't want to argue with a fellow Iowan, but please be honest with your posts so we Iowans are not painted in a bad light.

Here is a wonderful write up of the event along with pictures from Essential Estrogen:

http://www.essentialestrogen.com/2007/11/photos_pasta_pie_in_cedar_coun.html

On edit:

Here's a map of the Iowa counties so folks can see how far Senator Seng had to drive to get to Cedar County.

http://worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/namerica/usstates/counties/iacountymap.htm

[gateley]

48. Thank you for that perspective, Debi.

And thanks for the link. I'd love to be an Iowan! You folks are impressive in your attention to politics and the rest of us benefit from your commitment! :headbang:

[Debi]

50. We are very lucky to get to spend time with all these candidates

and really hear what they have to say. Just spend two hours Sunday listening to John Edwards on education at his stance was very impressive. :hi:

[iverglas]

47. I guess while we're here we may as well do this one more time

his sponsorship of the 2005 Bankruptcy bill

It has been repeatedly proved in this forum that Biden did not sponsor the bankruptcy bill.

Do you have some evidence for your claim that would refute that evidence?

[Debi]

49. What's ironic is that Iowa GOP Senator Chuck Grassley actually sponsored the bill

yet many Iowans don't know it.

[iverglas]

51. okay, I'm curious

Biden's support for the bill (as amended, with efforts by him and other Democrats) is attributed to his state's dependence on the banking/credit industry to drive its economy. (I'm the Canadian who only knows what google finds for me -- which included the name of the sponsor and cosponsors, with not too much difficulty.)

So what was this Sen. Grassley's motivation? I mean, as distinct from just republicanism, if there was something.

Does the issue come up at all in the local politicking for the primary?

[Inuca]

55. I think that

he was chairing the finance committee at the time, the committee where the bill originated. I did not check my facts, so take them with a grain of salt (you may add some pepper as well)

[youthere]

61. Because Senator Grassley was coming up for reelection in 2006 ......

and wanted to look all financially macho for the old timers out here...that, or he's just a giant shit weasel...I'm not sure which.

[Debi]

65. Check your PM since I don't think I can post GOP press releases here on DU n/t

[iverglas]

68. thanks, all . n/t

[youthere]

59. My experience has been just the opposite though...

we have an awful lot of fiscally conservative Dems that support bankruptcy reform, and don't hold Biden's vote against him one bit. It sure Edwards 2000 vote on bankruptcy didn't harm him in Iowa. I sense growing support for Biden..but you're right about his ground game...I never got one bit of info from his camp until I signed up..but I've never gotten anything from Edwards, Hillary, or Obama...and I believe that I'm in the same corner of Cedar county you are.

[rinsd]

60. Do Edwards votes on bankruptcy reform in 2000 and 2001 don't count?

The Dodd camp specifically pointed out Edwards voting actions on the Bankruptcy Overhaul bill in 2000. According to the press release, that bill would have essentially made it easier for courts to make debtors repay their debts rather than allowing them to discharge them. While Dodd and 11 other Democrats rejected this bill, Edwards voted in favor of it. Dodd even noted in the press release how President Bill Clinton vetoed this bankruptcy bill because it was too tough on debtors.
Click Here For a Free Bankruptcy Evaluation

Dodd further questioned Edwards as a poverty fighter by saying that his opponent voted in favor of a similar version of the Bankruptcy Reform bill in 2001. Specifically, that bill required debtors to pay $10,000 or 25% of their debts over time under a Chapter 13 bankruptcy plan rather than letting them seek a discharge via Chapter 7 bankruptcy.

Questioning his opponent’s political allegiances, Dodd noted how Edwards sided with Republicans in favoring the 2001 bankruptcy bill. Dodd said that Edwards even aligned with the Republican caucus in rejecting an amendment to the bill by Senator Paul Wellstone of Minnesota. That amendment would have given an exemption to debtors who were forced into bankruptcy because of medical expenses. Naturally, Dodd was one of 34 Democrats to vote in favor of this amendment.

Edwards’ voting record on bankruptcy issues gets worse, according to the Dodd camp. Dodd detailed how Edwards once again lined up with the Republicans in rejecting an amendment that would have included a more consumer-friendly means test than in the original Bankruptcy Overhaul bill of 2001. That amendment would have initiated a Chapter 7 means test that would have averaged the debtor’s last two months of income and taken into account sudden job losses or disabilities. The original bill mandated a means test averaging the debtor’s last six months of income.

Dodd concluded the press release by saying that Edwards ultimately supported a bankruptcy bill that not only punished the financially vulnerable but also aligned with big banks and credit card companies.

http://www.totalbankruptcy.com/bankruptcy_articles_john_edwards.htm

So are you really upset about the issue? Or are people upset in Iowa when is your capacity as an honest supporter of Edwards you tell them about his voting record?

[mmonk]

62. sigh

Dodd. I wish he had more support. (not meant to dis Edwards, I just like Dodd but he hasn't gotten traction)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. Who Really Cares Who I Like And Don't Like?

And, no, it wasn't you...You're fine...

But I like Joe...He doesn't diss other Democrats...

[ronnykmarshall]

43. Biden is going to be move up.

[tammywammy]

54. In internet world - maybe, real world - no

The majority of people aren't paying attention to the presidential race anyways, it's still early.

[Debi]

64. But in our small corner of the world - Iowa - where we have to make our decision

in less than 60 days - it's getting late.

[surfermaw]

57. AS a VP Yes as a President NO

He would be stooped in his tracks withing two months after he got the nod. If you want another re publican go with Biden, NO! go with Edwards and Biden his V.P. or something in the cabinet to help him, Joe ran or tired to run many years ago and was stooped as soon as he started...He definitely need to be on the team, but President he can't make it.

[PatSeg]

63. I don't agree

but that's okay. One of us will be right and one of us will be wrong. We'll see in a couple of months.

:toast:

[murbley40]

67. Those were different cicumstances.