Zogby's New Iowa Poll: Clinton Clings to Iowa Lead. Top Three Dems Statistically Tied

[flpoljunkie]

Poll: Statistically Tied Democratic Race In Iowa

By Eric Kleefeld - November 7, 2007, 3:00PM

The new Zogby poll in Iowa shows the Democratic race to be a close one between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama — and when the ±4.5% margin of error is figured in, it's a tight race between all top three Dems:

Clinton 28%
Obama 25%
Edwards 21%
Richardson 9%

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/11/poll_statistically_tied_democratic_race_in_iowa.php

Zogby Poll: Clinton Clings to Iowa Lead

Note to news outlets: This Zogby poll is free from copyright restrictions. You are free to broadcast or publish this release in whatever format you choose. There is no need to seek further permission from Zogby International.

Latest Zogby poll shows race tightens dramatically when second choices of minor candidate supporters are included

Democrat Hillary Clinton is holding on to a tenuous lead among likely Democratic caucus–goers in Iowa less than two months before those caucus participants will gather in neighborhood meetings to decide which candidate should carry their party banner into the 2008 presidential election.

She leads with 28% support, down from 30% in an August Zogby telephone poll. Barack Obama of Illinois, having made a serious campaign blitz of Iowa in recent months, is showing some progress at 25%, up from 19% in August. Holding steady in third place is John Edwards of North Carolina at 21%, down a bit from the late summer poll. Undecideds remain steady at 12%

However, the race tightens dramatically when second choices are factored into the mix – a critical wrinkle in the Iowa caucuses. In the caucuses, a first round of “balloting” is conducted, and those candidates who do not win at least 15% support are ruled “unviable” and supporters are directed to a second choice among those who remained “viable” before a second round of “balloting” is conducted. Zogby polling shows Edwards makes big strides as a second–choice candidate, jumping six percent (see chart).

Pollster John Zogby: “This is a real horserace coming into the stretch run. With less than two months before the caucuses, this is anybody’s ballgame.”

The survey shows Edwards wins second–choice support from Richardson backers and from Biden backers – both experienced pols with long Washington resumes. Obama also benefited more as a second choice than Clinton, making the race extremely tight.

Gender politics has been a big factor in the Democratic nomination battle, and Clinton – the first woman to be a front–runner for a major party nomination, leads among Iowa women with 32%, compared to 27% for Obama and 19% for Edwards. Among men, it’s a deadlock, with Edwards at 24%, and Clinton and Obama both at 23% support.

However, the picture changes a bit among second–choice voters, where Edwards wins 25% support, compared to 23% for Obama and 18% for Clinton. Among men making a second choice, Edwards also leads with 24% support, compared to 21% for Obama and 19% for Clinton.

But Clinton’s support appears stronger than that of Edwards and Obama. Asked about the likelihood they could change their minds before January, just 39% of Clinton backers said it is likely, compared to 50% of Obama supporters and 51% of Edwards supporters.

Asked whether former President Bill Clinton would have a negative or positive impact on a Hillary Clinton presidency, should one come to pass, Iowa Democrats are mostly optimistic. While 79% said his impact would be positive, nine percent said it would be negative and 12% were unsure.

The telephone survey was conducted November 6, 2007, and included 502 likely Democratic caucus-goers statewide. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1385

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. Sounds about right. Obama will probably eke out a win in Iowa.

[Colobo]

5. Viva Obama.

[ClarkUSA]

30. Any of the Top Three can win Iowa at this point.

The latest poll of likely Iowa caucus goers had a statistical dead heat between Clinton at 29% and Obama at 27%, so this poll
tracks well with that one from the University of Iowa.

Who knows what the polls of likely caucus goers will look like on Jan. 2, though? Now that's the poll that will matter. It
might be a coin toss until the very end, which should make for a sleepless night or two for DUers.

[Sparkly]

2. 12% Not Sure

That 12% will probably make all the difference.

[David Zephyr]

3. Zogby is probably the best pollster in the U.S. The last debate did hurt Hillary.

I think that the next couple weeks are going to be critical for Hillary now.

I find the fact that she acknowledged that it wasn't her best debate will help her.

Don't count Hillary out. She's got a great organization.

But as we approach reality check time with Iowa and then New Hampshire, voters begin to act with their heads more than hearts.

[rinsd]

6. I agree that the acknowledgedment will help.

[David Zephyr]

8. It showed humility, class and grace. All things that Hillary needs to show.

No one should count Hillary out.

Bill Clinton will parachute into Iowa the last week and the crowds will go crazzzzzy.

I'd still give it to Hillary at this point, but the Zogby Poll shows she really has to work it hard now.

[flpoljunkie]

7. As Zogby does not copyright his report, I have edited OP to add his entire report and analysis.

Note to news outlets: This Zogby poll is free from copyright restrictions. You are free to broadcast or publish this release in whatever format you choose. There is no need to seek further permission from Zogby International.

[AZ Criminal JD]

9. The report says it is copywritten 2007

[flpoljunkie]

10. Please read Zogby's copyright note that I have added to the OP and below, as well.

Note to news outlets: This Zogby poll is free from copyright restrictions. You are free to broadcast or publish this release in whatever format you choose. There is no need to seek further permission from Zogby International.

[AZ Criminal JD]

26. You are right

That's what I get for skim reading

[Tejanocrat]

4. It's even closer when you ad in the second choice support from those whose candidate has below-15%

(which is how the caucus works):

However, the race tightens dramatically when second choices are factored into the mix – a critical wrinkle in the Iowa caucuses. In the caucuses, a first round of “balloting” is conducted, and those candidates who do not win at least 15% support are ruled “unviable” and supporters are directed to a second choice among those who remained “viable” before a second round of “balloting” is conducted. Zogby polling shows Edwards makes big strides as a second–choice candidate, jumping six percent (see chart).

Including Second Choices of Those Who First Backed Unviables
30% - Clinton
29% - Obama
27% - Edwards

[Krashkopf]

11. WHO is supporting Hillary?

As a Dem Precinct Captain here in Colorado, and I have yet to meet an enthusiastic Hillary supporter.

Makes me wonder who the pollsters are speaking to.

[itsrobert]

12. I haven't met one in California

It's a mirage!

[Nedsdag]

15. My across the street neighbor is the widow of a prominent

former Democratic officeholder and she has Obama's bumper sticker on her car.

I'm still waiting to meet a Hillary supporter. I've met Ron Paul supporters but not Hillary ones.

[FatDave]

25. I saw 3 Hillary signs trick-or-treating with my kids

This was in a small rural Iowa town. I saw no signs for any other candidate for either party.

In Des Moines, I have seen one Hillary sign and nothing else. I've seen lots of Edwards and Obama bumper stickers and a surprising amount of Ron Paul stickers and yard signs. But I've yet to actually hear somebody, in person, say "I'm supporting Hillary Clinton". I think Iowa's going to be an upset, possibly for both parties.

[elizm]

17. Met one in SC but he works on the campaign. nt

[goodgd_yall]

27. Does it matter whether supporters are enthusiastic?

I'm finding a lack of enthusiasm for any candidate.

[Joe the Revelator]

28. Then your not looking hard enough....

I've met ethusiastic supporter of every candidate BUT Hillary

[Debi]

13. Here's where the second tier comes in

"But Clinton’s support appears stronger than that of Edwards and Obama. Asked about the likelihood they could change their minds before January, just 39% of Clinton backers said it is likely, compared to 50% of Obama supporters and 51% of Edwards supporters."

Imagine if Biden, Dodd, Gravel, Kucinich, Richardson are being looked at by Clinton's 39% or Obama's 50% or Edwards 51%?

Sure the Undecideds could catapult any of the Big Three into really 'winning' Iowa, but if the Big Three's supporters bail before or even on caucus night there could be a big upset (Just ask Howard Dean).

[surfermaw]

14. John Edwards is going to win in IOWA

Dennis K, is going to give over to Edwards as he did in the last election, his head and heart is on his shoulders and he usually does the right thing..

Edwards the winner by 3% points.

[bullwinkle428]

29. I finally started seeing Edwards commercials starting this past weekend -

Hillary, Obama, & Richardson have been running commercials for months, seemingly.

[bigdarryl]

16. All this means is more people are starting to pay attention to the race as it gets closer

[bigwillq]

18. The race is on!

:bounce:

Even though I am voting for DK, this race is going to be interesting. Can't wait to see how if goes down! :bounce:

[incapsulated]

19. Iowa is the most unpredictable state

What was Zogby polling before the last Iowa Caucus? Because most of us were pretty damn surprised.

[incapsulated]

20. Iowa last time around

http://www.zogby.com/search/ReadNews.dbm?ID=785

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

23. Fantastic link. Thank You.

I had forgotten that Zogby had Kerry winning Iowa.

[rinsd]

21. Best I can find is his daily tracking poll thru Jan 15th (caucus was the 19th)

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=780

On edit: you found it better than i.

[incapsulated]

24. If you seach for Iowa in the news archive

A lot of the old polls come up.

Look at December!

http://www.zogby.com/search/ReadNews.dbm?ID=762

[Tejanocrat]

22. Nice that it's virtually tied and Edwards has only just now started TV ads and the others have run

thousands of TV ads already. I think he was wise to wait.

[AtomicKitten]

31. I don't know anyone who has a clue how this will go down.

Yikes.