It has to be said: Hillary's about to win the nomination.

[Colobo]

You guys know I'm a staunch Obama supporter, and will be until he either wins or drops his candidacy. However, objectively, the chances of him or any of the other contenders to beat Hillary for the nomination are slim. Hillary Clinton survived two weeks of pounding because of her weakest debate performance up to date, Plantgate and her shaky answers on driving licenses for illegals, and still managed to hold a good lead coming up tonight's debate, which by the way stopped any momentum Obama might have had coming to it, I believe.

She's in a very, very, very strong position right now, and it is unlikely (although not impossible) for any of the others to catch her at this point unless something major happens. John Edwards has been doing himself more harm than good lately, and I believe this performance marks the beginning of the end for his bid. Hillary was able to pretty much spank him good tonight. Obama is doing what he can, but he's not a skilled debater- Hillary and him went at it and drew clear distinctions between them, but Hillary's delivery is much smoother than Obama's, which makes him look like if he was kind of lost or struggling in there. Edwards's terrible performance tonight can help him, but it seems he will remain in a distant second for the moment.

The only candidate that is coming up nicely is Joe Biden, and he might even kick Edwards out of the top tier if he keeps doing what he's doing.

So, Katz says that:

-There is a 80% chance Hillary will win the nomination.
-There is a 10% chance Obama will surprise Hillary and win the nomination.
-There is a 6% chance Biden will surprise Hillary and win the nomination.
-There is a 4% chance Edwards will surprise Hillary and win the nomination.

[rodeodance]

1. its ok to say that

[Yael]

2. Bah. Don't be a defeatist

Besides, if she does win, there is a 100% chance that a (R) will be in the WH come January 2009.

Keep up your spirits. We haven't even started the primaries yet.

:hi:

[Maven]

4. You gotta admit it's a little ironic to say "don't be a defeatist" and then say

"if Hillary wins, we lose." No?

[Yael]

9. Ironic? Nah.

Motivating. :D

[Maven]

15. Ha!

Well played.

[cali]

37. a 100% chance repukes will win against Clinton solely based

on Yael's biases. Wow. That's persuasive. Any dem who wins the nomination has a very good chance of beating whoever emerges from the repuke race. Why? A few reasons: The repuke party is bleeding. They are attracting far fewer voters who identify with the party than dems. Please read the new Pew Poll/Report, for exact figures on this. The repuke party is in danger of splitting: What with Pat Robertson endorsing Rudy, and NRTL endorsing Thompson, not to mention Dobson and a significant chunk of the fundy wingnuts threatening a third party vote, the religious right is incoherent and in greater disarray than they ever have been. Money: The repuke party simply isn't raising the amount of money they need to steal this election. I'm not just talking about individual candidates, but the national and state organizations.

Now for Clinton specifically: She's running a higly organized and tight campaign, has tons of money, and is able to dish it out. Don't think these things count? Think again; they're incredibly important to winning in a general election as well as in a primary.

She's not my choice, and I have no idea if she'll win the nom- I try and stay away from those predictions. But she certainly can win, despite high negatives. She needs to take the States Kerry won, and Ohio, and that's it: She wins. There's no one on the repuke map who has a strong chance of taking any of those states except, perhaps, for Rudy, and he's fucked by Kerik and by states like S. Carolina. If he does get it, he's vulnerable on many fronts- and Clinton will certainly have the dirt on his. That's not recycled dirt either, like all the stuff on the Clintons.

See the difference between talking out of your hat, and actually analyzing a situation?

Probably not.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. Is This You?

Besides, if she does win, there is a 100% chance that a (R) will be in the WH come January 2009.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3ABE3wvxzA


ROTFLMFAO

[silverweb]

3. I hope you're wrong.

I'm hoping that no matter what the media wonks spew, Hillary seriously hurt herself tonight with her answers on Iran and Social Security caps (especially after Obama's classic, "6% is not the middle class" line).

This is far from over and I'm far from yielding it to Hillary!

[Colobo]

5. I hope you are right.

[silverweb]

8. Me, too!

[Maven]

12. I'm not sure those discrete issues will matter as much as the overall impression that was made

Not to mention how that impression is articulated by the media.

[silverweb]

24. Yes, and that worries me.

But I can't help feeling that people have really started waking up to the great shell game the media has been playing with us -- and are paying much closer attention to issues than they used to.

I can't stop hoping....

[PresidentObama]

6. 80% chance Hillary will win? Yeah, right.

She has a good chance, but NOT 80%!!

No votes have been cast. Obama and Edwards are in a dead heat in Iowa with Clinton.

[Colobo]

11. Again, I wish I'm wrong and you're right.

[AtomicKitten]

7. Too early to surrender.

Much, much too early.

[ClarkUSA]

10. Every Iowa poll says it's a dead heat between the top tier three.

Until January 3 rolls by, I'll reserve judgment. One debate does not a nomination make.

By the way, CNN's Bill Schneider thinks Edwards and Obama won the debate. He said they had the
best moments because they both drew sharp distinctions with others.

He thought Biden and Obama knew most about the issues and said Biden's extensive experience
showed while Obama was clear, concise on health care and stood out as a calm, clear communicator
who knew his issues and explained his views cogently.

I'd check for his analysis tomorrow before waving the white flag. Oh, and Kossacks think Obama
won the debate and Edwards usually wins every poll there, so you have to respect that result.

[Capn Sunshine]

34. funny but this fact is being ignored by MSM

That's what we get on ground in IA as well.
dead heat. Three way Tie.

[saltpoint]

Not so sure about that. I don't think Giuliani will be the Republican nom and

I think either Edwards, Biden, or Obama will top our ticket.

Those who are first shall later be last.

[Tellurian]

13. Quite an admission coming from one of Obama's staunchest supporters..

Nothing is certain at this point in time. As much as I want Hillary as the nominee, I would never assume it's in the bag. Nothing is assured until we know the results after the caucuses.

So we will continue to support Hillary as if she is placed 20 points behind Edwards and Obama, because we don't know who will be the winner until it's over.

[incapsulated]

14. I tend to agree but don't give up so soon

If I didn't believe in miracles I wouldn't have supported Clark last time.

Now, I was wrong then but your guy has a hell of a lot better chance of upsetting the applecart, here.

Have some koolaide and chill. :D

[Adelante]

16. Don't give up the ship, Katz!

GOBAMA all the way.

[Evergreen Emerald]

17. I don't know if that is true. Where was Kerry at this time last election?

Wasn't Dean ahead? I think it is up in the air. Dang Biden did a great job tonight. I don't understand why he is so low in the polls.

[incapsulated]

19. Kerry only caught up in December

And remember Gephardt was pwning Iowa for a looong time before he imploded.

Iowa is really too close to call if it were held today.

Plenty of time.

[Evergreen Emerald]

25. that is right. I think Gephardt imploded in part because of his attacks

on Dean. They helped kerry and hurt him. Edwards may want to reconsider his attacks on Clinton they may hurt her, but they obviously are not helping him!

[OHdem10]

18. I agree with most of your analysis--

However, tonight for the first I could visualize Obama as President.
You are correct on Hillary.
While Edwards may not win, I think he is doing good for the country
His willingness to speak out on Issues such as Trade Policy, China
the condition of vulnerable in America at least gets it on the
table. Without him, these issues would slide by. At least
now more and more people can see and understand what is happening
to our country.I do not think he is hurting himself at all.

[SaveElmer]

20. Buck Up...I'm about as fully on board the Hillary bandwagon as one can be...

And even I wouldn't go that far...

It's politics...almost anything can happen...

[Colobo]

27. Let's see... but it doesn't look like it's going to change.

[rufus dog]

21. I believe you are being influenced by the post debate analysis

I watched 10 minutes of it before seeing the repeat of the debate, then saw the debate. There is No way in hell she won, it was the same Hillary, playing the middle and hoping no one truly listened to what she did or didn't say. She sucked! And took no stands or the wrong stand and the media spun it as a victory. The same media that Spun the fucking asshole George Bush as a leader. She sucks, Bush sucks, and the media sucks, you better take charge.

[MADem]

22. Aww, you might as well go all the way, then!!!

Come on, pick her running mate!!! Heck, give us your top five possibilities!!!

I thought she did very well in this last debate, but I also liked some of what Richardson said (everyone's saying that Human Rights answer was bad, but it's only bad in the GENERAL, it was pretty cool for a primary--he can always parse it later). I thought he did himself a lot of good. He came across as thoughtful, smart, decisive, matter of fact, and most importantly--LIKEABLE. I think people who did not notice him before will notice him now.

I also thought Dodd did better than he has before, and I thought Biden looked very statesmanlike. I think Edwards came across as too ... shit, don't want the Edwards people mad at me, because I do not dislike him at all, and think he does better than his performance tonight, usually... pushy, overeager, and a bit angry--not a good night for him...

As for your candidate, I thought Obama didn't have much 'spark' in his speech, his tone, or his delivery. Obama has this way of speaking at times, where he talks...stops...and then talks again. It's sometimes effective, when he's PUNCTUATING important points, but when he's not bubbling along, like he wasn't tonight, it came across as a bit .... ponderous. Kinda like an imitation of Captain Kirk, if you know what I mean.

I'm still gonna stay on the fence awhile longer, but I do agree it was a strong performance by Clinton. If I had to pick a winner of the evening, now, afer watching the debate TWICE (not quite twice, but we're near the end of the second run) I'd say she scored the most points and the most hits of the bunch. I'll also say that people who support their own candidates will come away saying their person won!

[man4allcats]

23. As regards Hillary, you are unfortunately probably right.

Hillary will get the Democratic nomination, and the Republicans will get their first legitimate win of the White House in more years than I am currently prepared to attempt to calculate. That is assuming, of course, that Dubya doesn't declare martial law between now and next November and decide to stay - a very real possibility if I may say so.

[Tejanocrat]

26. I think Hillary has only a 60% chance of winning (only because she has many different paths to

victory).

Edwards has only one realistic path to victory -- he must win Iowa. Good news for him, he CAN win Iowa (in fact, I think he has the best chance of winning Iowa). I give him a 20% chance of winning.

Obama also has only one realistic path to victory -- if he doesn't win Iowa (and I just don't think Obama has a realistic chance in Iowa where the caucus format is bad for him) he must win South Carolina. I give him a 15% chance.

In my view, no other candidate has better than a 1% chance.

[zulchzulu]

28. I disagree wholeheartedly

Clinton will place third in Iowa and get spanked by the press for the loss. She will place third in New Hampshire. She will place third in Nevada. She will place third or second in South Carolina.

By February 5th, the Clintons trying to up the support will be seen as embarassing has-beens. She will drop out by mid-February.

Bookmark this.

[Tactical Progressive]

31. I have a better idea

Why don't you start a thread and own up if your prediction doesn't pan out? I'm guessing you'll start one if it does, so that seems fair.

[Nutmegger]

29. I think it's premature to predict a winner at this point in time.

I'm in this for Edwards, and for a win. It's full steam ahead to the caucus!

[Tactical Progressive]

30. Oh Katz, you're such a Hillary-worshipper

viciously rubbing everyone's face in her inevitability. ;-)

Seriously, you are quite right. I thought Hillary's last debate performance was very strong, just tripped up by the media twisting her responses and applying all the worst motivations to her, reminiscent of what they did with Al Gore. Tonight's debate performance was better, but not by much, at least to me, but the thing that sets it apart and goes to your premise is that the media didn't find any way they could to contort her responses into tremendous gaffes. And with Obama getting tripped up on her immigration driver license question from last debate, along with a generally mediocre performance, that pretty much seals what I had thought was sealed last debate. As an aside, I can't believe that either one of them got tangled in that question. Bad prep both I guess.

Obama has a long and promising political career ahead of him. I hope to vote for him for President some day. In the meantime I'm so looking forward to a Hillary Administration sending legislation to the Senate with great Dem Senators, like Obama, speaking on the Senate floor and pushing it through, and vice versa.

Right now it is time for two things as President:
1) Hillary - she is exactly right for this time and place, and
2) a woman - Hillary again - long, long overdue.

Call that playing the gender card if you want. I'm happy to play it over and over and over. If it were a matter of a mediocre woman just to have a woman President, I might be a little self-conscious about it. But Hillary is all that, and the fact that she's a woman is something that I think gets to ride in the front seat proudly because she is all that. It's sort of like the difference between bragging when you don't got it and bragging when you do got it. One is not appropriate; the other is earned and should be appreciated.

[emilyg]

32. Nice post.

[Tactical Progressive]

33. Thanks emilyg

[wiley]

35. Great post. I agree with all of it.

Obama did not pull off his message well and looked just less shrill and desperate than Edwards. Obama ws neither charismatic nor especially focused and he really needed to be. I felt bad for Edwards. I know these types of statements provoke discord, but Obama just isn't ready. He actually needs to lose his Senate record or at least stop comparing it to Clinton's. I disagreed with some of Hilary's positions, but she came across as Presidential. I really liked Biden and Kucinich and they should have been given more time, but they did well.

[XemaSab]

36. My magic 8 ball says Iowa will be something like

Clinton 30
Obama 25
Biden 20
Edwards 18
Everyone else 7

But going into New Hampshire the "anyone but Hillary" crowd may find a standard-bearer, and Hillary may not pull it off.

[Pushed To The Left]

38. I still have a feeling that Obama just might pull it off!

Just imagine: President Obama!

[TeamJordan23]

39. I respect your opinion, but disappointed in you.

Giving up on Obama like that is disappointing. Although Obama is not a skilled debater; the truth is a very small minority actually watch these debates. I have faith the Iowans will follow the race much closer and look at more than debates.

You have a straunch Obama supporter since I joined DU, but disappointed to see you conceding so easily given that he is neck and neck in Iowa.

Just my two cents.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. You Are 100% Correct My Friend

"the truth is a very small minority actually watch these debates"

Correct, but then the media spends the next two weeks talking about it...

[JTFrog]

42. What we anticipate seldom occurs;

what we least expect generally happens.

This begs to be repeated over and over again.

[Perry Logan]

43. It will be 8 years of torture for Republicans. And don't forget--she'll have dictatorial powers.

[youthere]

44. President Dean agrees with you.

;-)


If she takes Iowa, I might agree with you, but it ain't over till it's over.

[BeyondGeography]

45. We've got miles to go before we sleep

and you should have gone to sleep before you wrote that post.

[LWolf]

46. No votes have been cast,

and there are many, many votes that will NOT be cast for HRC.