Prediction: Clinton will lead next Iowa poll released

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

I have no idea when the next Iowa poll, or whose poll it will be. And I am fast moving past giving a shit what happens in this campaign, since it's a classic 'Serenity Prayer' situation. (Things we cannot control)

But I like making predictions about complex dynamic systems because there are so many moving parts.

So, for what it's worth, the next Iowa poll will show Clinton on top because the Washington Post Poll was 1/2 sampled before the recent debate, and the Post likely voter methodology seems to favor Obama.

The Post methodology may well be MORE accurate than other models. It looks like they use a super-tight model of likely caucus-goers. (A full 33% of respondents have met candidate personally.) That super-tight model may well be the best predictor of caucus performance... better than all the other polls.

Obama might be up by ten points in a perfect poll, for all I know. I expect Obama to win Iowa. But he probably will not lead the next poll released.

[thereismore]

1. I predict she will lead. I predict Edwards' fans will, to some degree, switch to Obama when

it counts and Obama will win the primary there.

[rateyes]

2. I think you have it bassackwards....

Obama supporters will switch to Edwards in Iowa.

[thereismore]

5. Either way works for me! nt

[surfermaw]

9. I think you have it wrong, Edward ssupporters will go to Edwards

He is leading and has from day one. He is the only one of the three that can win in the General Election, if you want to get beat, then stick to your guns, let the republicans fund and pick your candidate.

[rateyes]

12. I'm talking about the hypothetical. nt

[cali]

13. yes, and your wee crystal ball is always correct, right?

forgive me for being a doubter, but all absolutist predictions like yours are complete shit.

[Rambis]

3. Polls will show Hillary ahead until Edward wins Iowa

that is the way it will be.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. Lot of Edwards confidence here. That's cool.

[surfermaw]

10. Rambis, you are right on.

[surfermaw]

6. Edwards is ahead in Iowa

For two weeks Edwards was showing in second place, not one word from the media..he is running the best ground plan in Iowa. Just now starting to spend money in Iowa, while the two others has spent millions,

[Evergreen Emerald]

7. It depends on when the poll is taken

I think Obama's jump in the poll reflected the Russert-debate and the media hype Obama got after as well as the negative media Clinton received. I think the Jefferson dinner and media hype played a roll in the polls as well.

The polls are so fickle, and I think Biden and Clinton will rise in the next polls with Edwards and Obama dropping.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. I'm assuming the next poll will be one taken post-Blizter debate

[CK_John]

11. I think there will be one more debate in early Dec and will be the tie breaker. n/t