Clinton plummeting in New Hampshire

[geek tragedy]

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/11/that_wmur_poll.php

HRC: 36% (was 43)
Obama: 22% (was 20)
Edwards 13% (was 12)
Richardson 12% (was 6)

That's a margin drop from 23 to 14 points for Clinton....

[cali]

1. Wow. Richardson must be doing something right

I'm not surprised to see Clinton slipping. Edwards looks to me like he's done if he doesn't win big in Iowa.

[Virginia Dare]

2. I'm surprised Dodd doesn't even register there..

what's up with that?

[geek tragedy]

5. It's Dodd--he doesn't register anywhere. n/t

[Virginia Dare]

10. Apparently not...n/t

[Sanity Claws]

3. 17% unaccounted for

Anything could happen when 17% of the population do not have their preference accounted for.

[ccpup]

4. hmmmmmm ...

It'd be interesting to see if Richardson is gaining traction, Edwards is stagnant, Obama is creeping and Hillary is plummeting in other polls as well.

[jackbourassa]

6. This was inevitable...

With the primary elections less than two months away, people are only now really starting to pay attention.

I'm sorry to say Hillaryfans, but i'm willing to bet you that most people were only "parking" their vote with her. Now they are beginning to look at the candidates more closely and are deciding now who they like.

Obama is increasing nationally as well. He's leading in Iowa. His favorabilities are higher. His likability numbers are higher. He has a two to one lead on the issue of honesty. He is tied with her in money and organization...

This thing is just getting started now.

[Skip Intro]

8. Actually, Obama is not increasing nationally.

In fact, Rasmussen has him down six points in 72 hours. That's as big a drop as what is being reported here for Hillary. How do you say one is increasing and one is plummetting?


btw, if the nubmers I just found from the previous CNN/WMUR poll are accurate, and the new numbers reported from the referenced blog are accurate, Hillary's "plummet" is within the margin of error (assuming it is the same margin as the previous poll).

[Skip Intro]

7. hmmm...any link to the actual poll? also, found this:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/new.hampshire.html

CNN states these are the latest poll, so I'm assuming this is the one the drop is being comapred to...which had Hillary at 41, not 43 which would mean her drop is within the margin of error.

Plummetting seems to be a little strong for that.


Would love to see the actual poll, rather than some blogger's translation. Any help there?

[Alamom]

12. See post 11.......few peeps, big moe

[suston96]

9. Richardson?

Virtually all of Hillary's "plummet" went to Richardson?

Something to think about as we watch new polling and see how Richardson is doing.

[Alamom]

11. Poll of 389 Democrats. (moe) plus or minus, 5 percentage points

plummeting? :eyes:



Despite national and Iowa polls that also show Clinton's edge getting smaller, nearly 70 percent of those taking part in the CNN/WMUR poll said they believe she will be the eventual nominee.

The new poll of 389 Democrats was conducted Wednesday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.


http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2007/11/obama_closing_o.html



edtx

[Skip Intro]

13. So two days of polling were before the last debate?

Can't wait to see new polls from NH. And Iowa, for that matter.

[creeksneakers2]

14. Using statistics to create misimpressions

This poll compares the current score to Hillary's highest score. With margin of error, the highest from the lowest would be six or eight points at least.

By using the same technique, I can say Hillary is up 3%, Barack Obama is down 3%, and Edwards is down 2%.

The same claim about Hillary was circulated not long ago. In that piece, here lead was down to 10 points. Now the lead is down from 10 points to 14 points. (sarcasm)

Poll source Date Highlights

CBS/New York Times November 2-November 11, 2007 Hillary Clinton 37%, Barack Obama 22%, John Edwards 9%, Bill Richardson 6%, Kucinich 5%, Biden 2%, Dodd 1%, Undecided 18%

Boston Globe (UNH) November 2-November 7, 2007 Hillary Clinton 35%, Barack Obama 21%, John Edwards 15%, Bill Richardson 10%, Other 8%, Undecided 12%

Marist College November 2-November 6, 2007 Hillary Clinton 36%, Barack Obama 25%, John Edwards 14%, Bill Richardson 6%, Dennis Kucinich 3%, Joe Biden 2%, Chris Dodd 1%, Mike Gravel <1% Undecided 13%

Rasmussen November 5, 2007 Hillary Clinton 34%, Barack Obama 24%, John Edwards 15%, Bill Richardson 8%, Joe Biden 3%, Chris Dodd 3%, Dennis Kucinich 2%, Mike Gravel 1%

American Research Group October 26-October 29, 2007 Hillary Clinton 40%, Barack Obama 22%, John Edwards 10%, Bill Richardson 5%, Joe Biden 4%, Chris Dodd 3%, Dennis Kucinich 3%, Gravel -%, Undecided 13%
Rasmussen October 23, 2007 Hillary Clinton 38%, Barack Obama 22%, John
Edwards 14%, Bill Richardson 7%, Dennis Kucinich 7%, Joe Biden 2%, Chris Dodd 2%, Mike Gravel 2%, Undecided 6%

Marist College Institute for Public Opinion (Likely Voters) October 5-October 7, 2007 Hillary Clinton 41%, Barack Obama 20%, John Edwards 11%, Bill Richardson 8%, Joe Biden 3%, Dennis Kucinich 3%, Chris Dodd 2%, Mike Gravel <1%, Undecided 12%

American Research Group September 26-September 29, 2007 Hillary Clinton 41%, Barack Obama 22%, John Edwards 10%, Bill Richardson 8%, Joe Biden 2%, Chris Dodd 2%, Dennis Kucinich 2%, Gravel -%, Undecided 12%
Zogby September 26-September 28, 2007 Hillary Clinton 38%, Barack Obama 23%, John Edwards 12%, Bill Richardson 8%, Dennis Kucinich 3%, Joe Biden 2%, Chris Dodd 2%, Gravel <1%, Undecided 10%

Rasmussen Reports September 16, 2007 Hillary Clinton 40%, Barack Obama 17%, John Edwards 14%, Bill Richardson 11%, Joe Biden 5%, Some Other Candidates 14%
Franklin Pierce University / WBZ Poll September 11-September 14, 2007
Hillary Clinton 36%, Barack Obama 18%, John Edwards 12%, Bill Richardson 10%, Al Gore 5%, Dennis Kucinich 3%, Joe Biden 3%, Chris Dodd 1%, Mike Gravel 1%, Undecided 11%

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg September 6-September 10, 2007 Hillary Clinton 35%, John Edwards 16%, Barack Obama 16%, Bill Richardson 8%, Dennis Kucinich 3%, Joe Biden 3%, Mike Gravel <0.05%, Chris Dodd <0.05%, Undecided 17%
:sarcasm: :sarcasm:

[ilovesunshine]

15. Yeah, she's plummeting.

Keep telling yourself that...

[asdjrocky]

16. Everyday.... in everyway...

Things are getting better and better.

[Yukari Yakumo]

17. More info...

The previous CNN/WMUR poll was in July!

Here are more complete results:
Clinton 36%
Obama 22%
Edwards 13%
Richardson 12%
Kucinich 3%
Biden 2%
Dodd 1%
Gravel 0%
Undecided 11%

Looking at other polls taken recently...

CNN/WMUR (11-18) Clinton 36%, Obama 22%, Edwards 12%
CBS/New York Times (11-11) Clinton 37%, Obama 22%, Edwards 9%
Boston Globe (UNH) (11-7) Clinton 35%, Obama 21%, Edwards 15%
Marist College (11-6) Clinton 36%, Obama 25%, Edwards 14%
Rasmussen (11-5) Clinton 34%, Obama 24%, Edwards 15%

oooo... she's plummeting... :sarcasm: