Biden: One of top 3 Dems will fall in Iowa

[ClarkUSA]

Biden predicted one of the leading three Democratic candidates -- Obama, Edwards, or Clinton -- would fail to finish in the top three in Iowa's caucuses,
according to the Des Moines Register.

Delaware Sen. Joe Biden expressed confidence today that at least one of the second-tier Democratic candidates — himself included — will finish near the top in the upcoming Iowa caucuses.

“I think one of us is going to end up supplanting one of the so-called top-tier candidates, I think, if you take a look, you give us each sort of our day, our time in the barrel to see if we rise up,” he said.

“What’s happened is, the top tier’s frozen. Nothing’s moving. They’ve spent millions of dollars and nothing’s moving. I think it’s about people are still looking at that top tier, and whether they want to stay there.”

Biden said his campaign is virtually sunk if he doesn’t finish within the top three at the Iowa caucuses, but added that the same applies to those far ahead of him in the polls. A Washington Post-ABC News Iowa poll this month revealed Biden in fifth place at 4 percent. Clinton is the only candidate who likely could survive a fourth-place or lower finish, he said.

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071128/NEWS/71128058

Interesting... I wonder if he could be right.

[jillan]

1. Anything could happen in Iowa - look at what happened 4 years ago.

[ClarkUSA]

3. True.

If one of top three doesn't place, it will be the beginning of the end of that campaign, imo.

[1corona4u]

2. Somewhere this same topic was posted this morning...

there are a number of comments on it.

[illinoisprogressive]

4. I have predicted before that Biden, the true dark horse will end up 3rd.

obama and Edwards will be in the top 2 spots.

[Major Hogwash]

5. I didn't see that prediction anywhere here.

Yet, I agree with you.
He may even just wind up in 2nd place.
Iowa loves Biden, he's been around for a very long time.
They know who he is, what he's about.
Very popular guy, that Joe Biden.
He's the only nor'easter that can take Iowa by storm.
He has twice the experience of Obama, Edwards, and Hillary COMBINED!
He knows how to talk to those people about money when it's tight in the winter.
He's got a kid serving in the military, he's committed to stopping the war.
And when it starts snowing in Iowa, Biden will really start shoveling it, and I'm not talking about snow.
Still, he'll do very well in Iowa.

[1corona4u]

6. Here's my prediction....

even though I hate to put it in writing....

I think the top 3 stay there, and shift, but I think Biden is within a few hundred votes of 3rd, as in 4th. So close, that he has a dilema on whether or not to continue on. Hope that clears up what I meant by "close 3rd". BUT, if that were to happen, people might just be so shocked, they'll realize that he does indeed have support, since he has been under the radar for so long. It could make a huge difference before the other primaries.

[K Gardner]

20. Excellent post and points. Love the noreaster analogy ! n/t

[robinlynne]

13. I like your prediction. As a matter of fact I like all three men.

[youthere]

17. I sure hope you're right!

I'd love to see a Biden upset.

[PatSeg]

7. That's interesting

"the top tier's frozen". I think he's right about that and after they've spent an obscene amount of money in Iowa.

[1corona4u]

9. Yeah, that is kind of odd...

forget Christmas....let's get to January.

[PatSeg]

10. Not really

They saturated the market and there is no more capacity to absorb them.

I'm all for skipping Christmas this year!

[K Gardner]

18. Exactly.. and too, I think too many people forget that Biden has been

in this a LONG time. He's seen many,many campaigns come and go with the winds. I don't think he'd say something like this unless he really felt it, and well, that's good enough to give me a little more Hope !

[inthebrain]

8. Biden is too divisive a candidate amongst the Democratic base

There are way too many voters that see him as a sell out and a high risk with his mouth.

Too many people disgusted with the way he handled the Bankruptcy Bill. I think he gets Liebermaned.

[skipos]

12. Biden is "too divisive" but Hillary is our frontrunner?

I hope you don't think DU is representative of national Democratic voters. Kucinich, even after his idiotic Ron Paul idea, will always lead the polls on DU but get 1-2% nationally.

EVerything I have seen indicated Biden is a long shot. But it has more to do with him having one of the lowest net worths of any candidate (if not the lowest), and low campaign money then any vote a mispoken quip.

Edwards looked like he was going to tank in Iowa and came in second, so who knows.

[inthebrain]

16. I don't think this place is indicitive of anything in the real world.

But it is the base that votes in the primaries. Biden has absolutely pissed off the base in the past 7 years. You can't win without the support of your base.

Kucinich has actually peaked above Biden in some polls. I don't think polling tells the story either. But one thing that is true is that looking at Edwards who is in third, Kucinich actually finished ahead of Edwards in a few 04 primaries.

This primary season probably won't go down like the 2004 primary. It's going to be tight the whole way through. Hillary and Obama are the front runners as defined by the MSM.

[K Gardner]

19. ^5. Good one Skipos. n/t

[polichick]

11. I won't be surprised if Biden or Richardson do well in Iowa...

Iowans like to stir things up a little.

[w4rma]

14. It will be either Clinton or Obama since Edwards has a strong lead in 2nd choice (double digits)

While holding a statistical tie with the top three for first place.

[ClarkUSA]

15. According to last week's ABC/Washington Post poll, Obama was the top 1st & 2nd choice...

While Edwards was #3 as first choice and #2 as second choice while Hillary was #2 as first choice and #3 as second choice.

And you're referring to yesterday's Rasmussen, right? Well, what's interesting is Clinton comes in third as second choice in BOTH polls.

Hmm.... food for thought. ;-)

[Divine Discontent]

21. another reason why

those who say they're not 'scared' of Edwards, really are. Or they wouldn't feel the need to announce it so much. Edwards is rising and has been for weeks. I'm very happy about that. My 2nd, is Biden, and he's doing alright himself. I would think Obama will be the one to lose many points. I can see him being president in 4-8 years from now, right now it's Edwards/Biden/Clinton's nice chance to get in...

[K Gardner]

22. Joe just got the Power Number on Hardball, LOL, for mentioning

impeachment 11 times in his speech. Go Joe !!