The smart money is betting Obama wins Iowa, Hillary comes back and wins NH and the nomination

[Herman Munster]

It's almost like it's been scripted by the media already for Hillary to lose and then have her big comeback kid moment 5 days later in NH.

Iowa and NH contracts

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/searchPageBuilder.jsp?z=1196578312125&grpID=5601

Dem Nom contracts

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=177134&z=1196579217906

[napi21]

1. We'll see. I don't think it's a done deal. I still think there's a good

chance there 're will be an upset in Iowa. Biden has been completely above the fray so far, and he's climbing in the polls. I know he's still nowhere close to the leaders, but there's still 5 weeks to go. There just night be a smack the media moment!

[saltpoint]

2. It's possible, but I don't think the media can completely control it, given

the mercurial nature of the campaign so far.

It's an significantly different race now than 2 weeks ago and likely different from 2 weeks hence.

I don't believe any state can be comfortably predicted at this point for either of the major parties.

[Beacool]

3. I think that they are calling it accurately.

Iowa was always difficult for Hillary and I thought long ago that she would lose it to Edwards, even though it now appears that it will probably go to Obama. I do think that she will win NH and eventually the nomination. It will not be a walk in the park, but I think that she'll pull it off.

[sandnsea]

4. Hillary has been downplaying Iowa all along

It's her script because she knows she isn't going to do well in red/rural America.

[BluegrassDem]

5. The Iowa winner gains 10 points in NH going by history

If that's the case, Hillary loses in NH too. Her lead is tenuous there at best. She couldn't afford to drop 10 points there. Also, this year, independents will be voting more in the Dem primary cause of the disenchantment with Republicans. If that's the case, the Obama will likely gain even more support as he does well with independent voters.

[Herman Munster]

7. or not

Hillary has all of the New Hampshire political machine behind her. Every major elected democratic official or their spouse by proxy has her support. Hillary has the best organization in New Hampshire because of this.

Also, McCain is very popular in New Hampshire and may fight Obama for independents.

So, don't be counting your chickens so fast. Hillary still has many advantages and firewalls built.

[earthlover]

9. In spite of her organization, and being from a neighboring state, Hillary's lead in NH is dwindling

Rasmussen has it at down to 7%.

The winner of iowa usually gets a 10 point boost in NH. If the present TREND continues, obama will be ahead in NH even before iowa, and this would lead to a blow out in nh for obama.

Losing both ia and nh would be particularly poisonous to hillary's campaign because more than any other it was based on name recognition, a sense of inevitability and a nostalgia for the clinton era.

If that doesn't work, what is her next move? I don't see how she could recover if she ever got seriously behind, and that looks like a distinct possibility.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Dangerous to rely on history in some respects

Now, I do it statewide in the general election. Those tendencies are very clear cut, how the state votes relative to the national popular vote.

But I'm not confident it will hold up in the primaries. Hillary has essentially had this lead dating to '03. The polls that included her in hypotheticals late in '03 had her crushing Dean, even when Dean had jumped far ahead among the actual candidates.

Now here we are, 4 years later, and you're telling me Hillary's longstanding support suddenly erodes elsewhere, simply because she loses Iowa? Sorry, but my handicapping instincts tell me not to buy it. Hillary has direct ties to the last successful Democratic nominee and that is a trump card in her favor, something that prevents a freefall.

Notice that the same analysts who are projecting Hillary to crumble are the ones who were relying on the so-called incumbent rule to rescue Kerry in '04. That was based on history also. History is soft when you apply it incorrectly or make faulty assumptions. We were also told that a Bush approval rating below 50% doomed him in '04.

Hillary has a large lead among women. I've seen no indication it is fragile. Unless Obama snares a good segment of that female vote, Hillary is the nominee.

[earthlover]

11. I think the turning point in Hillary's decline in IA was BK being caught in a lie....

Voters across the state started to immediately roll their eyes and say to themselves...not this shit again!

Maybe this is unfair to Hillary. But BK is a double edged sword.

Trust is a HUGE factor in predicting voting behavior. Bush's polling on believing him to be honest went down months before his approval ratings nose dived.

I may be wrong, but I think BK shot hillary in the foot with his false claim to have opposed iraq from the start.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Then Why Did Bill Clinton Get The Rock Star Treatment At The Black/Brown Forum

That's not my characterization ...That's the characterization of those that covered the event...To garden variety Democrats, without an axe to grind, Bill Clinton remains a hugely, hugely popular figure...

[JI7]

6. watch for them to play up the "come back kid" stuff in New Hampshire

if she loses in Iowa.

[sarcasmo]

10. No more Clinton's and No more of the Bush family, I have had enough.

Since 1984 one of those two names have been in the White House either as Vice President, or President.

[geek tragedy]

13. Iowa and NH are not unrelated events.

If Obama wins Iowa, he becomes a LOT more likely to win NH.

[Joe the Revelator]

14. I guess this is all you have left to cling to....

Which is awesome for me. When posts like this start creeping up, I know its all over but the crying for Team Hillary. :)