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Edited on Mon Dec-03-07 01:10 PM by TwoSparkles
...that the news media has too much time to fill the 24/7 news cycle. They generate stories that barely have any basis.
With that said, I think Iowans are concerned about the same issues as the rest of America. Electability certainly is an issue. However, you can make pro and con electability statements on virtually all of the candidates.
I certainly don't speak for all Iowans, but I can offer my experience as an Iowan. It sounds like you are looking for insight into what is going on in Iowa. So, here goes:
Iowans take their "first in the nation" status very seriously. Being "first" is such an honor and a privilege, and I feel a sense of responsibility. I think this time around, many Democrats understand how important our nominee is, because of the critical crossroads our nation stands.
I'm not sure if you want the 411 on the caucus process (and other Iowans can surely chime in as I'm not the expert), but the caucuses do not involve pulling a lever. Every town has many caucuses that take place in each voting district. We meet in community centers, high-school libraries and sometimes peoples' living rooms! In my suburb of 30,000--there are probably 200 caucus sites.
At my caucus in 2004--we met in the high-school gymnasium. There were 100 of us. We started out by dividing into groups--based on which candidate you supported. This gives everyone a clear picture of where everyone stands and which candidates are/aren't "viable." In my caucus, if a candidate had less than 7 supporters, they were not "viable." So, the four people who supported Dean had a decision to make. They could stick with Dean--and not count. Or they could move into another candidate group. 99 percent of these people move to support another candidate.
The caucuses involve candidate supporters (and anyone can speak) lobbying, pleading and stating their candidate's case--pointing out their candidate's strengths and their opponents' weaknesses. It's a big, raucous lobby fest. People are passionate and very verbal. It's fun, but everyone understands how serious the process is.
Several candidates will probably only have a few supporters--which means that it is highly likely (though not certain) that Kucinich, Richardson, Biden and Dodd supporters will end up standing with another candidate. Since this race appears to be a dead heat at this point (statistically speaking, according to the latest polls), my hunch is that the candidates who end up wooing the caucus goers (who support second-tier candidates) to their camp--will have a considerable edge.
My opinion is that most of this nonviable support will go to Edwards and Obama, because most supporters of these second-tier candidates are progressive and looking for change.
I also believe that it's likely that Hillary could come in 3rd or even 4th in Iowa. Her polls in Iowa are trending downward. Much of her support has been based on her inevitability and her name recognition. As Iowans have met the other candidates, her inevitability factor has eroded significantly. After the inevitability factor is gone, there just doesn't seem to be a lot of there, there.
Her campaign style has been to speak to large groups, with very little up-front Q&A. All of the other candidates get face to face, and speak with small groups and are able to connect one-on-one. I've noticed that Biden, Obama and Edwards are criss-crossing the state and speaking at many small events. This openness, honesty and dialog will have a significant impact on caucus goers. That's how you win the Iowa caucuses.
Furthermore, maybe this story didn't get a lot of play nationwide, but in Iowa it was huge news for several days when Hillary's campaign planted that question in Grinnell Iowa. After Hillary denied knowing about this, another woman came forward and said that Hillary campaign asked her to ask a planted question as well--at a different speech. It's clear to most Iowans that Hillary was not being honest. That didn't play well at all. Hillary's actions underscore the misgivings that many have about her--that she's overly managed, not genuine and more robotic than honest. Her polls really began declining after all of this and I think many began seriously paying attention to other Dem candidates.
The candidates who have the most passionate and outspoken supporters--will have an edge, as well. If support for a candidate is weak or soft, that supporter can easily change their mind. However, if support is emotional and passionate---that enthusiasm may draw attention of other supporters, into that candidate camp.
I mentioned this in another post as well. It's possible that Mari Culver, the popular wife of our governor, Chet Culver--may endorse Edwards. Last time around our governor Tom Vilsack didn't endorse, but his wife did endorse Kerry. The Culver camp may do the same thing and have the endorsement come from the wife. The Culvers are very close with the Edwards' campaign. John Edwards campaigned for Chet Culver, during his gubenatorial bid. I don't know that this endorsement will happen for certain, but it's highly likely and it could help Edwards and could further erode Hillary.
That's my 2 cents. I hope other Iowans chime in too.
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